NEWC Weekly Index
23-Jan-09 88.19
30-Jan-09 83.15
06-Feb-09 78.17
13-Feb-09 80.28
20-Feb-09 76.33
NEWC Monthly Index
Nov-2008 91.36
Dec-2008 78.18
Jan-2009 82.69
Sabtu, 21 Februari 2009
Associated Press White House tries to end bank nationalization talk
WASHINGTON (AP) -- The White House on Friday insisted it's not trying to take over two ailing financial institutions, even as stocks tumbled again. On Wall Street, talk of nationalization of Citigroup Inc., and Bank of America Corp., prompted investors to continue to balk, worried that the government would have to take control and wipe out shareholders in the process.
Citigroup fell 20 percent, while Bank of America fell 12 percent in afternoon trading but also came off their lowest levels.
"This administration continues to strongly believe that a privately held banking system is the correct way to go, ensuring that they are regulated sufficiently by this government," White House press secretary Robert Gibbs said when asked about nationalizing the banks.
"That's been our belief for quite some time, and we continue to have that," Gibbs said.
Investors have shown decreasing confidence that U.S. banks can right themselves. Citigroup and Bank of America have already received significant help from taxpayers as the government has rushed in to try to save the financial sector, which has been choked by bad assets and seen the flow of credit shrink.
The speculation about the two banks' future continued to take a direct toll on the market.
Gibbs was pressed for more details on his answer -- specifically whether Obama would not nationalize banks. He said it was hard for him to be any clearer.
When a reporter suggested Gibbs could do that by saying point bank that Obama would never nationalize banks, Gibbs would not make that statement, but emphasized: "I think I was very clear about the system that this country has and will continue to have."
Associated Press Stocks tumble but close well off lows
Stocks tumble but end off lows as White House seeks to calm fears of bank nationalization *Tim Paradis, AP Business Writer*Friday February 20,2009, 5:43pm EST
NEW YORK (AP) -- Despairing investors keep unloading stocks -- and there are no signs that the selling will end anytime soon.
Wall Street tumbled again Friday, giving the market a painful end to another terrible week, one that left the major indexes down more than 6 percent. The reality of a protracted recession, and the likelihood that government intervention can do little to hasten its end, had investors again abandoning stocks, particularly those of struggling financial companies.
Friday's drop, which shaved 100 points off the Dow Jones industrial average, was led by financial stocks and came a day after the market's best-known indicator dropped to its lowest level since the depths of the last bear market, in 2002. And the Standard & Poor's 500 index, the barometer most closely watched by market pros, came close to its lowest point in nearly 12 years.
Wall Street has been sinking lower and lower as investors come to terms with the fact that the optimism that fed a late-2008 rally was clearly unfounded. Companies' forecasts for this year, which accompanied a dismal series of fourth-quarter earnings reports, pounded home the fact that no one can figure out when the recession will end.
"It was a market that was built on that hope and what we're seeing now is an unwinding of that," said Todd Salamone, director of trading and vice president of research at Schaeffer's Investment Research in Cincinnati, of the rally from late November to early January. more...
NEW YORK (AP) -- Despairing investors keep unloading stocks -- and there are no signs that the selling will end anytime soon.
Wall Street tumbled again Friday, giving the market a painful end to another terrible week, one that left the major indexes down more than 6 percent. The reality of a protracted recession, and the likelihood that government intervention can do little to hasten its end, had investors again abandoning stocks, particularly those of struggling financial companies.
Friday's drop, which shaved 100 points off the Dow Jones industrial average, was led by financial stocks and came a day after the market's best-known indicator dropped to its lowest level since the depths of the last bear market, in 2002. And the Standard & Poor's 500 index, the barometer most closely watched by market pros, came close to its lowest point in nearly 12 years.
Wall Street has been sinking lower and lower as investors come to terms with the fact that the optimism that fed a late-2008 rally was clearly unfounded. Companies' forecasts for this year, which accompanied a dismal series of fourth-quarter earnings reports, pounded home the fact that no one can figure out when the recession will end.
"It was a market that was built on that hope and what we're seeing now is an unwinding of that," said Todd Salamone, director of trading and vice president of research at Schaeffer's Investment Research in Cincinnati, of the rally from late November to early January. more...
Jumat, 20 Februari 2009
Indopremier Volatility Currency Risk, Raise our Concern to Slash the Bottom Line
FY08 Performance Result below our Estimates
The UNSP un-audited FY08 Sales result was 6% below our estimates. The ASP for CPO in FY08 was 5$ below our figure (Rp 7.300/kg versus Rp 7.600/kg). Meanwhile the CPO sales volume was 11% lower than our projection, reaching 272,800 tons.
“Red Alert” USD Bonds Debt Exposure
Company has significant USD debt exposure of US$ 160 million (equal to Rp 1,6 trillion with Rp 10,000/US$). Weakening Rupiah value would eventually raise burden to the company’s non operational expenses especially interest expense and foreign exchange loss. Based on our calculation, the FY08 bottom line would drop from our previous estimation, around 35% lower to Rp 306 Bn from Rp 474 Bn. Foreign exchange loss of Rp 200bn and interest expense of Rp 180bn would put pressure on net profit. Eventually, the dividend payment will be affected as well.
Key Base Assumption Revision
Considering current condition, we make some adjustment revision to our key assumptions as follow:
1.We revise exchange rate for FY09 and FY10 up to Rp 11,500 and Rp 10,000 from previously at Rp 9,500.
2.We adjust our assumptions, especially related to production, sales volume and ASP FY09 and FY10. From the updated industry condition, CPO demand currently being advantaged as the drought in Brazil, Argentina and China damages soybean production
3.Seems that rubber outlook is worse than CPO as reflected in China’s import trade for rubber and CPO per January 2009 has dropped 65% Ytd to 60,000 tons and 27% to 260,000 tons respectively. Future contract for rubber for July 2009 delivery in Japan commodity exchange tumbled to ¥143,6 or US$ 1,563/Mt in line with the negative news of production cut from Toyota to 519,000 tons until March 2009 or decline 54% from the same period previous year, Our New Earning Estimates FY08 and FY09 far below Consensus
Currency risk has attracted our concern for the company performance in 2009. However we view that in 2010, global recession should subside. It would give positive impact to the company. Our assumption for exchange rate seems more conservative than the consensus figure. Our net income projection 2009F is much lower 49% from consensus. While our operating profit and EBITDA are 5% and 18% higher than consensus respectively.
Recommendation and Valuation
Based on our new assumptions, our valuation DCF model with WACC 16.8% (Rf 12%, risk premium 6.5%, beta 1.5, target debt ratio 35% and terminal growth of 5%) arrive new TP at Rp 285,- per share (or decline 22% from previous TP at Rp 368,-). Our valuation result show us that UNSP with share price at Rp 325 (19/02/09) have traded P/E 2009F and 2010F at 10.2x and 3.1x. We change our recommendation from HOLD to SELL with TP Rp 285, giving downside potential of 12.3% from the last trading price at Rp 325.
The UNSP un-audited FY08 Sales result was 6% below our estimates. The ASP for CPO in FY08 was 5$ below our figure (Rp 7.300/kg versus Rp 7.600/kg). Meanwhile the CPO sales volume was 11% lower than our projection, reaching 272,800 tons.
“Red Alert” USD Bonds Debt Exposure
Company has significant USD debt exposure of US$ 160 million (equal to Rp 1,6 trillion with Rp 10,000/US$). Weakening Rupiah value would eventually raise burden to the company’s non operational expenses especially interest expense and foreign exchange loss. Based on our calculation, the FY08 bottom line would drop from our previous estimation, around 35% lower to Rp 306 Bn from Rp 474 Bn. Foreign exchange loss of Rp 200bn and interest expense of Rp 180bn would put pressure on net profit. Eventually, the dividend payment will be affected as well.
Key Base Assumption Revision
Considering current condition, we make some adjustment revision to our key assumptions as follow:
1.We revise exchange rate for FY09 and FY10 up to Rp 11,500 and Rp 10,000 from previously at Rp 9,500.
2.We adjust our assumptions, especially related to production, sales volume and ASP FY09 and FY10. From the updated industry condition, CPO demand currently being advantaged as the drought in Brazil, Argentina and China damages soybean production
3.Seems that rubber outlook is worse than CPO as reflected in China’s import trade for rubber and CPO per January 2009 has dropped 65% Ytd to 60,000 tons and 27% to 260,000 tons respectively. Future contract for rubber for July 2009 delivery in Japan commodity exchange tumbled to ¥143,6 or US$ 1,563/Mt in line with the negative news of production cut from Toyota to 519,000 tons until March 2009 or decline 54% from the same period previous year, Our New Earning Estimates FY08 and FY09 far below Consensus
Currency risk has attracted our concern for the company performance in 2009. However we view that in 2010, global recession should subside. It would give positive impact to the company. Our assumption for exchange rate seems more conservative than the consensus figure. Our net income projection 2009F is much lower 49% from consensus. While our operating profit and EBITDA are 5% and 18% higher than consensus respectively.
Recommendation and Valuation
Based on our new assumptions, our valuation DCF model with WACC 16.8% (Rf 12%, risk premium 6.5%, beta 1.5, target debt ratio 35% and terminal growth of 5%) arrive new TP at Rp 285,- per share (or decline 22% from previous TP at Rp 368,-). Our valuation result show us that UNSP with share price at Rp 325 (19/02/09) have traded P/E 2009F and 2010F at 10.2x and 3.1x. We change our recommendation from HOLD to SELL with TP Rp 285, giving downside potential of 12.3% from the last trading price at Rp 325.
Bloomberg Inco Indonesia Reports Fourth-Quarter Loss as Sales Decline
Feb. 20 (Bloomberg) -- PT International Nickel Indonesia, the country’s largest producer of the metal, posted a fourth- quarter loss after prices tumbled.
PT Inco, as the Jakarta-based company is known, booked a loss of $9.8 million in the three months to Dec. 31 compared with profit of $200.5 million a year earlier, according to an e-mailed statement today. Sales declined to $180 million from
$458.5 million.
For Related News and Information:
Top commodities stories: CTOP
Most-read Indonesian stories: MNI INDO 1W
--Editor: Jake Lloyd-Smith
PT Inco, as the Jakarta-based company is known, booked a loss of $9.8 million in the three months to Dec. 31 compared with profit of $200.5 million a year earlier, according to an e-mailed statement today. Sales declined to $180 million from
$458.5 million.
For Related News and Information:
Top commodities stories: CTOP
Most-read Indonesian stories: MNI INDO 1W
--Editor: Jake Lloyd-Smith
Danareksa CTRA - Keeping The Romance Alive
Upgrade TP Rp 575 Mempertahankan BUY
Target penjualan yang lebih rendah untuk 2009
− Kondisi bisnis yang tidak menguntungkan masih mempengaruhi tingkat permintaan sektor properti
− Menurunkan target total penjualan 2009 sebesar 10% dari Rp 1,8triliun menjadi 1,6triliun
2 proyek joint operation di luar Jawa —> tambahan 147 miliar terhadap NAV
Program asset buyback dari kreditor
− Harga jual tanah rata-rata Rp 2juta/m2 sampai 3juta/m2
− Reserve untuk pembangunan ke depan dalam 3 atau 4 tahun dari sekarang
− Tambahan sebanyak Rp 765miliar ke dalam kalkulasi NAV (nilai aktiva bersih) kami
Mempertahankan Buy - TP baru 575
− NAV/saham yang baru = Rp 1.046
− TP baru Rp 575/saham (45% diskon terhadap NAV)
− TP mengimplikasikan PE 09-10F sebesar 20,7-14,3x ; dengan upside potential sebesar 78%.
Target penjualan yang lebih rendah untuk 2009
− Kondisi bisnis yang tidak menguntungkan masih mempengaruhi tingkat permintaan sektor properti
− Menurunkan target total penjualan 2009 sebesar 10% dari Rp 1,8triliun menjadi 1,6triliun
2 proyek joint operation di luar Jawa —> tambahan 147 miliar terhadap NAV
Program asset buyback dari kreditor
− Harga jual tanah rata-rata Rp 2juta/m2 sampai 3juta/m2
− Reserve untuk pembangunan ke depan dalam 3 atau 4 tahun dari sekarang
− Tambahan sebanyak Rp 765miliar ke dalam kalkulasi NAV (nilai aktiva bersih) kami
Mempertahankan Buy - TP baru 575
− NAV/saham yang baru = Rp 1.046
− TP baru Rp 575/saham (45% diskon terhadap NAV)
− TP mengimplikasikan PE 09-10F sebesar 20,7-14,3x ; dengan upside potential sebesar 78%.
CNBC Indonesia's Bukit Asam sees '09 coal sales up 13 pct
JAKARTA, Feb 19 (Reuters) - Indonesian state coal miner PT Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam expects its coal sales to increase by 13 percent this year on firm demand from the power sector, its president director said on Thursday. Bukit Asam plans to sell 14.5 million tonnes of coal this year, with about 12.7 million tonnes supplied from its own production. It will buy the rest from other producers. The firm sold 12.8 million tonnes in 2008, Sukrisno told reporters. "Coal demand globally is indeed slowing because of the financial crisis.
But there will be new power plants coming on stream this year in the country and elsewhere," he said after a hearing with parliament. Three new power plants with total generating capacity of 1,000 MW are due to come onstream this year as part of the government's crash programme to add 10,000 megawatts of generating capacity through coal-fired power stations. Bukit Asam had committed to supply 3 million tonnes per year for the programme, Sukrisno said. more...
But there will be new power plants coming on stream this year in the country and elsewhere," he said after a hearing with parliament. Three new power plants with total generating capacity of 1,000 MW are due to come onstream this year as part of the government's crash programme to add 10,000 megawatts of generating capacity through coal-fired power stations. Bukit Asam had committed to supply 3 million tonnes per year for the programme, Sukrisno said. more...
Detikfinance Bapepam Minta BUMI Gelar RUPS
Jakarta - Badan Pengawas Pasar Modal dan Lembaga Keuangan (Bapepam LK) meminta PT Bumi Resources Tbk (BUMI) untuk menggelar rapat umum pemegang saham (RUPS) terkait akuisisi tiga perusahaan yang dilakukannya.
"Kita (Bapepam) berindikasi membuktikan adanya transaksi 2 elemen, adanya after afiliasi dan harga yang tidak wajar. Artinya ini berarti harus ada RUPS independen. Ini oke nggak transaksinya? Jadi masih tergantung RUPS-nya. Bapepam (sebagai regulator) hanya memberikan petunjuk, Bapepem bilang ini harus di RUPS-kan, semua tergantung RUPS," kata Ketua Bapepam Fuad Rahmany di kantor Bapepam LK, Jalan Wahidin Raya, Jakarta, Jumat (20/2/2009).
BUMI menandatangani perjanjian akuisisi 80% saham Zurich Asset Investments senilai Rp 2,412 triliun pada 30 Desember 2008. Kemudian pada 5 Januari 2009, BUMI mengambil alih 76,8% saham PT Fajar Bumi Sakti (FBS) senilai Rp 2,475 triliun. Terakhir, pada 7 Januari 2009 BUMI mengambil alih 84% saham PT Pendopo Energi Batubara (PEB) senilai Rp 1,304 triliun. more...
Detikfinance Inflasi Februari Turun, BI Rate Bisa Turun Lagi
Jakarta - Bank Indonesia memperkirakan inflasi pada Februari 2009 akan turun dibandingkan bulan yang sama 2008. Dengan penurunan inflasi ini, maka BI membuka kemungkinan penurunan BI Rate lebih lanjut. Demikian disampaikan Gubernur BI Miranda S Gultom usai negosiasi pemerintah dengan Lapindo di Kantor Departemen PU, Jakarta, Jumat (20/2/2009).
"Kami pikir turun," ujarnya saat ditanya inflasi Februari 2009 secara year on year (YoY). Dengan inflasi yang menurun, Miranda menjelaskan ada kemungkinan BI Rate juga akan turun lagi. "Kita lihat datanya nanti. Kalau inflasi turun, ada kemungkinan tentunya," katanya.
Pada Februari 2008, Badan Pusat Statistik mencatat terjadinya inflasi sebesar 0,65%. Inflasi Februari 2008 ini jauh lebih rendah dari inflasi Januari yang mencapai 1,77%. Sementara pada Januari 2009 telah terjadi deflasi sebesar 0,07%. Deflasi terjadi karena penurunan harga tertinggi kelompok perumahan, air dan listrik. Deflasi tertinggi terjadi pada penurunan kelompok perumahan dan listrik (lih/ir)
Detikfinance Bapepam dan Bumi Masih Pelajari Tim Penilai Independen
Jakarta - Badan Pengawas Pasar Modal dan Lembaga Keuangan (Bapepam LK) dan PT Bumi Resources Tbk (BUMI) masih mempelajari rencana kemungkinan penggunaan penilai independen dalam melakukan valuasi penilaian harga tiga akuisisi perusahaan yang dilakukan BUMI.
"Soal tim penilai independen masih dipelajari lebih lanjut," kata Kepala Biro Bidang Pemeriksaan dan Penyidikan Bapepam LK Sarjito di kantor Bapepam LK, Jalan Wahidin Raya, Jakarta, Jumat (20/2/2009). Sarjito menjelaskan Bapepam memang telah memanggil manajemen BUMI pada Kamis kemarin (19/2/2009). "Memang Andrew Beckham (direktur keuangan BUMI) kemarin itu dipanggil ke Bapepam untuk dimintai keterangan, diperiksa terkait dengan harga kewajaran dan content nya. Pokoknya diperiksa soal yang wajar-wajar saja kok," ujar Sarjito.
BUMI menandatangani perjanjian akuisisi 80% saham Zurich Asset Investments senilai Rp 2,412 triliun pada 30 Desember 2008. Kemudian pada 5 Januari 2009, BUMI mengambil alih 76,8% saham PT Fajar Bumi Sakti (FBS) senilai Rp 2,475 triliun. Terakhir, pada 7 Januari 2009 BUMI mengambil alih 84% saham PT Pendopo Energi Batubara (PEB) senilai Rp 1,304 triliun. Bumi menilai harga pembelian tersebut sangat wajar sedangkan Bapepam melihat nilai transaksi sangat mahal sehingga perlu dilakukan pemeriksaan lebih lanjut.
Otoritas Bursa Efek Indonesia (BEI) juga masih menunggu keputusan Bapepam LK mengenai harga wajar akuisisi 3 perusahaan yang dilakukan PT Bumi Resources Tbk. Jika terdapat perbedaan harga maka akan ditunjuk penilai baru.(ir/qom)
CLSA Research Today: re-initiating coverage on Ramayana (RALS IJ), TP Rp360
Research Today: re-initiating coverage on Ramayana (RALS IJ), TP Rp360
Swati re-initiates coverage on Ramayana (RALS IJ) with a SELL recommendation and TP of Rp360/share. Great company but these guys have just been very unlucky with macro events. In 2005, just when SSG begins to pick up, govt raised fuel price 100%+. This time around, there ambition to aggressively in the regions hit a brick wall when commodity prices took a plunge. Although I have a very positive longer term outlook for soft commodities, it is unlikely to recover in big way in next few months. Sales continue to struggle at this low end retailer.
Swati re-initiates coverage on Ramayana (RALS IJ) with a SELL recommendation and TP of Rp360/share.
There are some positives:
Market leader in low-end dept store
Strong balance sheet, no debt
Generating FCF of US$40mn
Cheap valuation but negative earnings growth this year
But more negatives for now…
January 09 SSG -2.1%, we forecast -7% SSG for 2009
Rapid fall in commodity prices = falling rural income
RALS’ strategy of expanding into the provinces and midsize towns makes sense longer run but facing a hard time now
Falling overseas remittances (overseas workers being laid off)
Rising unemployment
Question on cash management: total cash Rp1.433tn = 45% market cap = 63% equity. About 30% of total cash is invested in mutual funds, bonds, and shares. We prefer to see the company to look for attractive acquisition opportunities or paying dividends (and leave the investment of the cash to each shareholder).
Swati re-initiates coverage on Ramayana (RALS IJ) with a SELL recommendation and TP of Rp360/share. Great company but these guys have just been very unlucky with macro events. In 2005, just when SSG begins to pick up, govt raised fuel price 100%+. This time around, there ambition to aggressively in the regions hit a brick wall when commodity prices took a plunge. Although I have a very positive longer term outlook for soft commodities, it is unlikely to recover in big way in next few months. Sales continue to struggle at this low end retailer.
Swati re-initiates coverage on Ramayana (RALS IJ) with a SELL recommendation and TP of Rp360/share.
There are some positives:
Market leader in low-end dept store
Strong balance sheet, no debt
Generating FCF of US$40mn
Cheap valuation but negative earnings growth this year
But more negatives for now…
January 09 SSG -2.1%, we forecast -7% SSG for 2009
Rapid fall in commodity prices = falling rural income
RALS’ strategy of expanding into the provinces and midsize towns makes sense longer run but facing a hard time now
Falling overseas remittances (overseas workers being laid off)
Rising unemployment
Question on cash management: total cash Rp1.433tn = 45% market cap = 63% equity. About 30% of total cash is invested in mutual funds, bonds, and shares. We prefer to see the company to look for attractive acquisition opportunities or paying dividends (and leave the investment of the cash to each shareholder).
BNI Securities BBCA Smooth Passing among Hurdles
Investment Highlights:
+ Ability to boost lending growth up to 12%, with limited funding growth
+ Better loan to deposit ratio of 59% (2009F) from 55% (2008F)
+ Better Net Interest Margin (NIM) amid loosening benchmark interest rate
+ Maintaining Non Performing (NPL) ratio Improving Capital Adequacy Ratio
+ No additional provision to IDR 475 billion due to Citra Margatama Surabaya default
+ Lower Cost to Income ratio
The declining economic activity has not necessary affected BBCA's performance in disbursing loan. The liquidity source streams come from loosening reserve requirement, matures government bonds, which BBCA prefers to place it to BI's products, and last undistributed fund from last year. BBCA, however, as one of the biggest branches in nation, will remain able to collect public fund.
Although the monetary authority call to cut lending rate by reducing BI rate, worrying of asset quality, BBCA keeps relatively unchanged loan rate. Combined with higher LDR 2009F, it makes BBCA's interest income to increase to IDR 20 trillion (2009F) from IDR 18 trillion (2008F). The central bank call, however, is responded by lowering cost of fund by bank, including BBCA that translated into BBCA's NIM improves by 1% to 6% (2009F) from 5% in 2008F. Thus, BBCA's net
interest income rises to 27% in 2009F from IDR 12 trillion in 2008F to IDR 15 trillion 2009F.
Although BBCA always conduct prudent way in granting credit, as the bank managed its NPL to remain below 2% over terms, we deem, after economic downturn it will a bit up to 0.7% for gross NPL.
Other good news is, BBCA has fully provisioned Citra Margatama Surabaya (CMS) loan. CMS reported failed to meet its obligation to complete its installment payment. As it has been fully provisioned, we view the news unchanged much on BBCA's operation wise. Adding on loan activity usually affects on CAR. After more BI products placement that and we do not see a specific change in CAR in 2009F. It retains in 15% level.
Valuation We use dividend discounted method to compute BBCA's fair value. The calculation is using 19.4% discount factor after assuming 12% risk free rate, beta 1.0x and country premium risk 6.5%. We use 14% as BBCA terminal value and we get IDR 3450 is the fair price of BBCA.
+ Ability to boost lending growth up to 12%, with limited funding growth
+ Better loan to deposit ratio of 59% (2009F) from 55% (2008F)
+ Better Net Interest Margin (NIM) amid loosening benchmark interest rate
+ Maintaining Non Performing (NPL) ratio Improving Capital Adequacy Ratio
+ No additional provision to IDR 475 billion due to Citra Margatama Surabaya default
+ Lower Cost to Income ratio
The declining economic activity has not necessary affected BBCA's performance in disbursing loan. The liquidity source streams come from loosening reserve requirement, matures government bonds, which BBCA prefers to place it to BI's products, and last undistributed fund from last year. BBCA, however, as one of the biggest branches in nation, will remain able to collect public fund.
Although the monetary authority call to cut lending rate by reducing BI rate, worrying of asset quality, BBCA keeps relatively unchanged loan rate. Combined with higher LDR 2009F, it makes BBCA's interest income to increase to IDR 20 trillion (2009F) from IDR 18 trillion (2008F). The central bank call, however, is responded by lowering cost of fund by bank, including BBCA that translated into BBCA's NIM improves by 1% to 6% (2009F) from 5% in 2008F. Thus, BBCA's net
interest income rises to 27% in 2009F from IDR 12 trillion in 2008F to IDR 15 trillion 2009F.
Although BBCA always conduct prudent way in granting credit, as the bank managed its NPL to remain below 2% over terms, we deem, after economic downturn it will a bit up to 0.7% for gross NPL.
Other good news is, BBCA has fully provisioned Citra Margatama Surabaya (CMS) loan. CMS reported failed to meet its obligation to complete its installment payment. As it has been fully provisioned, we view the news unchanged much on BBCA's operation wise. Adding on loan activity usually affects on CAR. After more BI products placement that and we do not see a specific change in CAR in 2009F. It retains in 15% level.
Valuation We use dividend discounted method to compute BBCA's fair value. The calculation is using 19.4% discount factor after assuming 12% risk free rate, beta 1.0x and country premium risk 6.5%. We use 14% as BBCA terminal value and we get IDR 3450 is the fair price of BBCA.
Mandiri Sekuritas SGRO Improved Growth Profile
Improved growth profile
Palm plantings figure in 2008 confirmed our positive view on Sampoerna Agro (SGRO). With new palm plantings of 12k during 2008, we expect the company to be able to reach its targeted plantation area of 140k ha by 2012. SGRO also achieved better yield and extraction rate for FY08. All these factors, in our view, will translate into better CPO production growth going forward (5.9% CAGR FY08-FY12F). Additionally, without forex debt, SGRO could survive current! rupiah d epreciation better than other companies. Reiterate our Buy call with TP maintained at Rp1,400/share.
Retain Buy rating. We keep our earnings forecasts for SGRO intact as our CPO price forecasts (US$550-600/ton for FY09F-10F) are unchanged. We like the stock for its potential CPO production growth and less exposure to forex debt. Our TP of Rp1,400/share was derived from DCF-based valuation (WACC: 13.6%, TG: 3%). Maintain Buy.
Palm plantings figure in 2008 confirmed our positive view on Sampoerna Agro (SGRO). With new palm plantings of 12k during 2008, we expect the company to be able to reach its targeted plantation area of 140k ha by 2012. SGRO also achieved better yield and extraction rate for FY08. All these factors, in our view, will translate into better CPO production growth going forward (5.9% CAGR FY08-FY12F). Additionally, without forex debt, SGRO could survive current! rupiah d epreciation better than other companies. Reiterate our Buy call with TP maintained at Rp1,400/share.
Retain Buy rating. We keep our earnings forecasts for SGRO intact as our CPO price forecasts (US$550-600/ton for FY09F-10F) are unchanged. We like the stock for its potential CPO production growth and less exposure to forex debt. Our TP of Rp1,400/share was derived from DCF-based valuation (WACC: 13.6%, TG: 3%). Maintain Buy.
Mandiri Sekuritas Indika Energy Tango with the sea
Tango with the sea
Should the acquisition of Petrosea materialize as reported in Bisnis Indonesia, we believe it will bode well for Indika to stregthen its thrust toward full integration as an energy company. With the reported acquisition price of about US$80mn for Clough’s 82% existing stake, this translates to price to annualized EBITDA of 3.6x, a fair deal in our view (taking into account Bumi’s acquisition of Dewa at 5.5x). With! out incor porating any element from this reported acquisition we maintain buy with TP of Rp2,180/share, a 40.6% upside from current levels.
Maintain Buy. With its vast cash chest, the company should be able to pursue acquisitions with the absence of funding issues, thereby increasing value in particular at parent level, whose remaining sales contract backlog (via Tripatra) is fast diminishing (at US$184mn to last until end09). Key risks are (1) drop in coal prices and (b) inability to secure new EPC and related projects. We maintain buy for the stock at TP of Rp 2,180/share, which now trades at PER09F of 5.5x.
Should the acquisition of Petrosea materialize as reported in Bisnis Indonesia, we believe it will bode well for Indika to stregthen its thrust toward full integration as an energy company. With the reported acquisition price of about US$80mn for Clough’s 82% existing stake, this translates to price to annualized EBITDA of 3.6x, a fair deal in our view (taking into account Bumi’s acquisition of Dewa at 5.5x). With! out incor porating any element from this reported acquisition we maintain buy with TP of Rp2,180/share, a 40.6% upside from current levels.
Maintain Buy. With its vast cash chest, the company should be able to pursue acquisitions with the absence of funding issues, thereby increasing value in particular at parent level, whose remaining sales contract backlog (via Tripatra) is fast diminishing (at US$184mn to last until end09). Key risks are (1) drop in coal prices and (b) inability to secure new EPC and related projects. We maintain buy for the stock at TP of Rp 2,180/share, which now trades at PER09F of 5.5x.
CIMB Indofood Cut Rating from Neutral to Underperform
Indofood’s debt level shot up to about Rp18tr at end-2008 from some Rp16tr in Sep 08, with US$ debt amounting to US$750m, pushing its net gearing to over 160%, in our calculation, a significant jump from the 107% at end-2007. Consequently, interest burden to sales should rise to 4% this year, a full 1% increase from 2008. Further, goodwill amortisation for Lonsum and the recent Indolakto acquisition should amount to 0.8% of our FY09 sales estimate. All these would drag down net margins. Additionally, while refinancing pressure has subsided for now, risks remain as most of the debt has been rolled over by over a year but less than two years. We cut our earnings estimates by 3-15%, which reduces our sum-of-the-parts target price to Rp925 from Rp1,150, and cut our rating from Neutral to Underperform.
CITI AALI BUY: January 2009 Key Operating Statistics
BUY: January 2009 Key Operating Statistics
Whether weather matters… — AALI's plantations in Sulawesi enjoyed more rainfall compared to its plantations located in Kalimantan and Sumatra. As such, FFB harvested from Sulawesi area in January 2009 rose 4.3% YoY to 69.2k tons and helped minimized the impact of lower FFB harvest from both
Sumatra (-8.1% YoY to 158.1k tons) and Kalimantan (-36.8% YoY to 74k tons, although +3.1% MoM).
Lower CPO production in January 2009 but expected — Following the 9.3% drop in FFB processed, CPO production also fell 11.8% YoY. This is unsurprising given the seasonality factor. Additionally, we view that one month is still too early to form a reasonable pattern. We will revisit our CPO production assumption of 1m (+2.3% YoY) tons for FY09E post 1Q09E.
Valuation getting expensive? — Compared to its Indonesian peers AALI’s valuation may appear expensive at 11x 2009PE. However, AALI's size easily dwarfs its Indonesian plantation peers and as such we think it should trade closer to its Malaysian peers (c.13x 2009E) instead of at a discount.
Maintain Buy (1H, TP: Rp14,150) — Since its low of Rp4,600 (October 2008), AALI has risen +163% to above Rp12,000. Its strong balance sheet (net cash position), simplicity in business structure, sound management, decent dividend yield, and high ROE lends it a defensive stance and we think there is still room for AALI's stock price to move towards our target price of Rp14,150. As a pure CPO play, AALI would benefit from any upward movement in CPO prices.
Whether weather matters… — AALI's plantations in Sulawesi enjoyed more rainfall compared to its plantations located in Kalimantan and Sumatra. As such, FFB harvested from Sulawesi area in January 2009 rose 4.3% YoY to 69.2k tons and helped minimized the impact of lower FFB harvest from both
Sumatra (-8.1% YoY to 158.1k tons) and Kalimantan (-36.8% YoY to 74k tons, although +3.1% MoM).
Lower CPO production in January 2009 but expected — Following the 9.3% drop in FFB processed, CPO production also fell 11.8% YoY. This is unsurprising given the seasonality factor. Additionally, we view that one month is still too early to form a reasonable pattern. We will revisit our CPO production assumption of 1m (+2.3% YoY) tons for FY09E post 1Q09E.
Valuation getting expensive? — Compared to its Indonesian peers AALI’s valuation may appear expensive at 11x 2009PE. However, AALI's size easily dwarfs its Indonesian plantation peers and as such we think it should trade closer to its Malaysian peers (c.13x 2009E) instead of at a discount.
Maintain Buy (1H, TP: Rp14,150) — Since its low of Rp4,600 (October 2008), AALI has risen +163% to above Rp12,000. Its strong balance sheet (net cash position), simplicity in business structure, sound management, decent dividend yield, and high ROE lends it a defensive stance and we think there is still room for AALI's stock price to move towards our target price of Rp14,150. As a pure CPO play, AALI would benefit from any upward movement in CPO prices.
PRESS RELEASE: QATAR TELECOM (QTEL) ANNOUNCES PRELIMINARY RESULTS OF TENDER OFFERS IN INDONESIA AND THE US
Dear Editors and Journalists,
Doha, February 19, 2009 – Qatar Telecom (Qtel) Q.S.C. (“Qtel”) today announced the expiration and preliminary results of its concurrent tender offers, through its wholly-owned subsidiary Indonesia Communications Pte. Ltd., to acquire Series B Shares of PT Indosat Tbk. (IDX: ISAT; NYSE: IIT), an Indonesian company (“Indosat” and, such shares, “Series B Shares”), pursuant to an Indonesian offer, and to acquire American Depositary Shares representing Series B Shares (“ADSs”) pursuant to a U.S. offer. The offers expired at 3:00 a.m., New York City time (which is 3:00 p.m., Jakarta time), on February 18, 2009. In the aggregate, Qtel had offered to purchase up to 1,314,466,775 Series B Shares (including Series B Shares underlying ADSs) in the offers, representing approximately 24.19% of the total issued and outstanding Series B Shares (including Series B Shares underlying ADSs) of Indosat.
Based on preliminary information provided by The Bank of New York Mellon, the ADS tender agent for the U.S. offer, and PT Danareksa Sekuritas, the share tender agent for the Indonesian offer, a total of approximately 17,705,799 ADSs were validly tendered into the U.S. offer and not withdrawn, and a total of approximately 1,439,620,500 Series B Shares were validly tendered into the Indonesian offer and not withdrawn, representing an aggregate of approximately 2,324,910,450 Series B Shares (including Series B Shares underlying ADSs). Each ADS represents fifty (50) Series B Shares. Because the number of Series B Shares (including Series B Shares underlying ADSs) tendered into the offers exceeds the aggregate number of Series B Shares that Qtel offered to purchase in the offers, the proration rules will apply pursuant to the terms of the offers. Qtel currently expects that the proration factor will be approximately 56.54%.
****************
A copy of the full press release is attached, along with contact details, should you need more information.
Best regards,
Laurel Teo
Vice President
Singapore
3 Pickering Street, #02-04, Nankin Row,
China Square Central, Singapore 048660
T +65 6224 2987
F +65 6327 3987
M +65 8228 1061
www.fd.com
Doha, February 19, 2009 – Qatar Telecom (Qtel) Q.S.C. (“Qtel”) today announced the expiration and preliminary results of its concurrent tender offers, through its wholly-owned subsidiary Indonesia Communications Pte. Ltd., to acquire Series B Shares of PT Indosat Tbk. (IDX: ISAT; NYSE: IIT), an Indonesian company (“Indosat” and, such shares, “Series B Shares”), pursuant to an Indonesian offer, and to acquire American Depositary Shares representing Series B Shares (“ADSs”) pursuant to a U.S. offer. The offers expired at 3:00 a.m., New York City time (which is 3:00 p.m., Jakarta time), on February 18, 2009. In the aggregate, Qtel had offered to purchase up to 1,314,466,775 Series B Shares (including Series B Shares underlying ADSs) in the offers, representing approximately 24.19% of the total issued and outstanding Series B Shares (including Series B Shares underlying ADSs) of Indosat.
Based on preliminary information provided by The Bank of New York Mellon, the ADS tender agent for the U.S. offer, and PT Danareksa Sekuritas, the share tender agent for the Indonesian offer, a total of approximately 17,705,799 ADSs were validly tendered into the U.S. offer and not withdrawn, and a total of approximately 1,439,620,500 Series B Shares were validly tendered into the Indonesian offer and not withdrawn, representing an aggregate of approximately 2,324,910,450 Series B Shares (including Series B Shares underlying ADSs). Each ADS represents fifty (50) Series B Shares. Because the number of Series B Shares (including Series B Shares underlying ADSs) tendered into the offers exceeds the aggregate number of Series B Shares that Qtel offered to purchase in the offers, the proration rules will apply pursuant to the terms of the offers. Qtel currently expects that the proration factor will be approximately 56.54%.
****************
A copy of the full press release is attached, along with contact details, should you need more information.
Best regards,
Laurel Teo
Vice President
Singapore
3 Pickering Street, #02-04, Nankin Row,
China Square Central, Singapore 048660
T +65 6224 2987
F +65 6327 3987
M +65 8228 1061
www.fd.com
Associated Press Oil prices surge on report of falling inventories
COLUMBUS, Ohio (AP) -- Oil prices jumped Thursday as new government data showed U.S. oil inventories fell unexpectedly and that consumption of gasoline and other petroleum products -- which have been plummeting because of the recession -- may be starting to edge higher.
Light, sweet crude for April delivery rose 7 percent, or $2.77, to settle at $40.18 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The vast majority of trades have shifted to the April contract with the March contract expiring Friday. Benchmark crude for March delivery surged 14 percent, or $4.86, to settle at $39.48.
The Energy Information Administration said crude stocks decreased 200,000 barrels to 350.6 million barrels for the week ended Friday. Analysts had expected stock to grow by 3.5 million barrels, according to Platts, the energy information arm of McGraw-Hill Cos. Inventories have risen more than 30 million barrels in the prior six weeks. Even with the decline, crude supplies remain ample and U.S. oil storage sites, including the main depot in Cushing, Oklahoma, are brimming with crude. Storage levels are nearing levels last seen in the summer of 1990 when Iraq invaded Kuwait more...
Light, sweet crude for April delivery rose 7 percent, or $2.77, to settle at $40.18 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The vast majority of trades have shifted to the April contract with the March contract expiring Friday. Benchmark crude for March delivery surged 14 percent, or $4.86, to settle at $39.48.
The Energy Information Administration said crude stocks decreased 200,000 barrels to 350.6 million barrels for the week ended Friday. Analysts had expected stock to grow by 3.5 million barrels, according to Platts, the energy information arm of McGraw-Hill Cos. Inventories have risen more than 30 million barrels in the prior six weeks. Even with the decline, crude supplies remain ample and U.S. oil storage sites, including the main depot in Cushing, Oklahoma, are brimming with crude. Storage levels are nearing levels last seen in the summer of 1990 when Iraq invaded Kuwait more...
Detikfinance CLSA Beli 81 Juta Saham BUMI
Jakarta - PT CLSA Indonesia, perusahaan sekuritas berkode KZ telah memborong 81.801.000 (0,42%) saham PT Bumi Resources Tbk (BUMI) senilai Rp 61,569 miliar. Pembelian masif di harga rata-rata Rp 752,68 per saham pada perdagangan hari ini, Kamis (19/2/2009), telah mendongkrak harga BUMI ke level Rp 800.
Nilai transaksi BUMI hari ini mencapai Rp 430,75 miliar atau sekitar 31,29% dari total nilai transaksi Bursa Efek Indonesia (BEI) hari ini sebesar Rp 1,376 triliun. CLSA (KZ) menjadi perantara pembelian terbesar dengan memborong 163.602 lot sebanyak 847 kali transaksi senilai Rp 61,569 miliar. Pembelian ini dilakukan tanpa diiringi aksi jual sama sekali atas saham BUMI.
Posisi kedua diduduki oleh PT Sinarmas Sekuritas yang melakukan pembelian sebanyak 93.697 lot dengan frekuensi transaksi sebanyak 796 kali di harga rata-rata Rp 786,27 per saham. Namun pembelian Sinarmas diiringi dengan aksi jual sebanyak 64.409 lot dengan frekuensi 345 kali di harga rata-rata Rp 786,12 per saham. BUMI ditransaksikan sebanyak 1.120.211 lot atau sebanyak 560.105.500 saham (2,88%) dengan frekuensi transaksi senilai Rp 430,75 milliar.
Dengan penguasaan BUMI terhadap IHSG hari ini sebesar 31,29%, kenaikan harga BUMI sebesar Rp 60 (8,1%) ke level Rp 800, berhasil menahan kejatuhan IHSG hingga ditutup di level 1.323,696, turun 6,914 poin (0,51%) dari penutupan kemarin di level 1.330,610. Titik terendah IHSG hari ini berada di level 1.313,725. Meski ditutup turun, namun kenaikan volume dan nilai transaksi BUMI akibat pembelian CLSA secara masif pada perdagangan Sesi II menahan laju penurunan IHSG.
(dro/ir)
Palmoil HQ DJ European Palm Oil Prices
Lowest known offers at 1330 local time in U.S. dollars a metric ton, bulk, with changes on the day unless otherwise stated as quoted by European traders:
Palm oil, Mal/Sumatran origin Palm oil, Mal/Sumatran origin
crude (max 5% FFA), refined, FOB Malaysia
CIF Rotterdam
Apr-Jun 09 570.00 unch Feb-Jun 09 575.00 unch
Jul-Sep 09 570.00 - 5.00 Jul-Sep 09 570.00 unch
Palm olein, Mal origin, RBD Stearin, (Poram), RBD
(max 0,1% FFA) FOB Malaysian FOB Malaysian
Mar 09 605.00 unch Mar 09 450.00 - 10.00
Apr-Jun 09 605.00 + 5.00
Jul-Sep 09 600.00 unch Palm Fatty Acid Distillate
FOB Malaysia
Mar 09 320.00 unch
Palm kernel oil, Mal/Indo origin Coconut oil, Phil/Indo origin
max 5% FFA, CIF Rotterdam 3-4% FFA, CIF Rotterdam
Apr-May 09 580.00 - 10.00 Feb-Mar 09 660.00 unch
May-Jun 09 585.00 + 5.00 Mar-Apr 09 665.00 unch
Jun-Jul 09 590.00 + 5.00 Apr-May 09 675.00 - 5.00
tr = traded level unch = unchanged unq = unquoted RBD = refined, bleached and deodorized Poram = contract specification of the Palm Oil Refiners Association of Malaysia.
-By Dow Jones Newswires; 4420-7842-9259; londonstats@dowjones.com
Associated Press Dow ends at lowest close in more than 6 years
Wall Street slides as Dow industrials close at 7,466, lowest level in more than 6 years
NEW YORK (AP) -- The Dow Jones industrial average tumbled to its lowest close in more than six years on Thursday as sharp declines in key financial shares led the market lower.The blue chips broke through a psychological barrier established in November to close at their lowest level since Oct. 9, 2002, the last bear market low. The feeble performance marks a setback for many investors who hoped the Nov. 20 finish would mark the low point of the market's extended decline from its October 2007 highs.
The market's inability to rally also signals that investors see no immediate end for the recession, which is already 14 months old and one of the most severe in decades.
The Dow had been threatening to break through the November bottom since Tuesday, when the index tumbled 300 points on worries about the economy and the stability of banks in Eastern Europe. Stocks had barely held the November low on Tuesday and Wednesday.
On Thursday, persistent worries about financial and technology stocks weighed on the market, with steep dropoffs in financial bellwethers like Citigroup and Bank of America leading the way downward. Both stocks ended down about 14 percent. The Dow lost 89.68, or 1.2 percent, to end at 7,465.95. It was the lowest finish since October 2002. more...
Palmoil HQ Crude palm oil futures close lower
February 20, 2009 3:00 GMT+8
Malaysian crude palm oil futures closed lower for the fourth day in a row yesterday, on fears it may track the decline in soyabean prices, traders said.
“Soyabean is still below US$9 (US$1 = 3.61), where as it was at US$10-US$11 when palm oil was at RM2,000, so it hasn’t caught up,” an analyst at a Singapore-based brokerage firm said.
The benchmark May contract fell RM15, or 0.8 per cent, to RM1,860 per tonne, having fallen as low as RM1,830 ringgit, a level not seen since February 6.
The price of the tropical oil has steadily climbed from the October 28 low of RM1,331 but has struggled to hold above RM2,000 on demand concerns.
Other traded contracts were mixed. The overall volume was 22,439 lots of 25 tonnes each.
The Singapore-brokerage analyst said that what could drive palm further down is the prospect that soyabean crops might not be as bad as people had feared.
“People are ignoring that supply from the US is going to be huge,” the analyst said, adding that the market has focused too much on the drought in Argentina.
Oil prices rose above US$35 a barrel yesterday ahead of the US data expected to show crude inventories in the top energy consumer hit an 11-year high amid a worsening recession. - Reuters
Kamis, 19 Februari 2009
Detikfinance Gapura Prima Teruskan Penerbitan Obligasi Semester II
Jakarta - PT Perdana Gapura Prima Tbk (GPRA) sedang mengkaji kemungkinan untuk melanjutkan rencana penerbitan obligasi pada semester II-2009. Tahun lalu, perseroan menunda penerbitan obligasi Rp 300 miliar. "Kita akan lanjutkan rencana penerbitan obligasi untuk sumber pendanaan capex 2009," ujar Corporate Secretary GPRA, Rosihan Saad usai acara Forum Corporate Secretary, di restoran Oasis, Jl Raden Saleh, Jakarta, Kamis (19/2/2009).
Rosihan menjelaskan, rencana penerbitan obligasi tersebut kemungkinan bisa dilaksanakan pada awal semester II-2009. "Kita lihat setelah pemilu (Mei 2009), mudah-mudahan kondisi membaik, sehingga rencana ini bisa kita wujudkan," ujarnya. GPRA berencana menerbitkan obligasi senilai Rp 300 miliar pada tahun 2008. Namun ambruknya pasar keuangan global membuat perseroan menunda aksinya. Sayangnya, Rosihan belum dapat memastikan jumlah obligasi yang akan diterbitkan semester II nanti. "Masih kita kaji. Angkanya bisa sama, bisa juga berubah," jelasnya.
Selain itu, lanjut Rosihan, perseroan akan menggunakan sisa dana hasil penawaran perdana (IPO), pinjaman bank, dan penerbitan saham baru (rights issue) untuk sumber pendanaan belanja modal (capital expenditure/capex) tahun ini. "Kami belum bisa sebutkan total kebutuhan capex kami, karena tergantung dari proyek-proyek yang akan dibangun tahun ini," katanya. Ia mengungkapkan, perseroan berencana untuk mengerjakan 2-3 proyek properti yang berupa hunian, rusunami, perkantoran, townhouse, dan lainnya. Perseroan membutuhkan lahan seluas 5000-10.000 m2 untuk satu tower apartemen.
"Kami akan bangun satu proyek dengan waktu secepatnya, untuk itu lahan yang dibutuhkan tidak terlalu luas," ujarnya. Ia juga mengatakan, pada Maret 2009, GPRA berencana untuk meluncurkan satu proyek hunian kelas menengah yang berlokasi di Jakarta. "Ini proyek perdana kami pada tahun ini, mengenai nilai proyek tersebut belum bisa kami jelaskan sekarang," jelasnya. "Kami targetkan pendapatan tahun 2009 bisa tumbuh 20% begitu juga dengan laba bersihnya," ungkapnya.
Mengenai kinerja sepanjang 2008, Rosihan mengatakan, sampai saat ini masih dalam proses audit. Namun GPRA menargetkan pendapatan 2008 sebesar Rp 600 miliar. "Kinerja 2008 cukup baik, angka pastinya masih diaudit," imbuhnya.(dro/ir)
Credit Suisse United Tractor
Weak January operating performance is worsened by the unfavourably heavy rains
United Tractors. January operating performance continued to sustain its weakness since 4Q08, due to the 1) tight financial availability (especially in US$-term), 2) falling commodity prices, and 3) unfavourable heavy rain in its mining areas.
Its heavy equipment sales volume dropped 56% YoY to 216 units, but showed a decent improvement from a depressed volume during 4Q08. Coal mining sector experienced the least drop, with only down 10% YoY vs. the remaining of 75%-99% YoY.
The heavy rains in Kalimantan areas also adversely impact UT.s both mining contracting and mining divisions. Despite the positive growth still in the mining contracting business (+4% on coal and 18% for overburden, thanks to the higher stripping ratio), these performance was below its internal target. The coal sales volume got hit the hardest, dropping 44% YoY to only 0.2m tonnes.
Given the above, we do see some downside risk in our earnings forecast, but we still like the company.s qualities given 1) its brands, 2) management, and 3) balance sheet flexibility
United Tractors (UNTR.JK, Rp5750.00, OUTPERFORM [V], TP Rp7900.00)
United Tractors. January operating performance continued to sustain its weakness since 4Q08, due to the 1) tight financial availability (especially in US$-term), 2) falling commodity prices, and 3) unfavourable heavy rain in its mining areas.
Its heavy equipment sales volume dropped 56% YoY to 216 units, but showed a decent improvement from a depressed volume during 4Q08. Coal mining sector experienced the least drop, with only down 10% YoY vs. the remaining of 75%-99% YoY.
The heavy rains in Kalimantan areas also adversely impact UT.s both mining contracting and mining divisions. Despite the positive growth still in the mining contracting business (+4% on coal and 18% for overburden, thanks to the higher stripping ratio), these performance was below its internal target. The coal sales volume got hit the hardest, dropping 44% YoY to only 0.2m tonnes.
Given the above, we do see some downside risk in our earnings forecast, but we still like the company.s qualities given 1) its brands, 2) management, and 3) balance sheet flexibility
United Tractors (UNTR.JK, Rp5750.00, OUTPERFORM [V], TP Rp7900.00)
Credit Suisse Ciputra Development
Weak sales continue
Indonesia’s property sales continue to be weak. Ciputra Development (CTRA) reported January 2009 marketing sales of Rp56.8 bn, 31.4% below management’s guidance and down 25% MoM and 49% YoY. Much of CTRA’s January 2009 sales was supported by landed residential sales and Ciputra World Jakarta failed to sell even a single apartment.
Property sales in Indonesia currently lack the necessary drivers, in our view, given softer end-user demand on the back of softer purchasing power and weak mortgage-financed property purchase, given lack of mortgage availability and high mortgage rate.
CTRA is currently trading at a 70% discount to 2009E RNAV, versus the regional average of a 42% discount. However, while we believe that CTRA offers attractive value for long-term investors, we recommend that only investors with holding power should accumulate on the counter and only on weakness.
Maintain OUTPERFORM rating and target price of Rp610.
Indonesia’s property sales continue to be weak. Ciputra Development (CTRA) reported January 2009 marketing sales of Rp56.8 bn, 31.4% below management’s guidance and down 25% MoM and 49% YoY. Much of CTRA’s January 2009 sales was supported by landed residential sales and Ciputra World Jakarta failed to sell even a single apartment.
Property sales in Indonesia currently lack the necessary drivers, in our view, given softer end-user demand on the back of softer purchasing power and weak mortgage-financed property purchase, given lack of mortgage availability and high mortgage rate.
CTRA is currently trading at a 70% discount to 2009E RNAV, versus the regional average of a 42% discount. However, while we believe that CTRA offers attractive value for long-term investors, we recommend that only investors with holding power should accumulate on the counter and only on weakness.
Maintain OUTPERFORM rating and target price of Rp610.
Detikfinance Bos Gudang Garam Mundur
Jakarta - Belum lama pergantian presiden direktur PT HM Sampoerna Tbk, perusahaan rokok PT Gudang Garam Tbk (GGRM) juga mengalami perubahan pimpinan utama. Djajusman Surjowijono mengundurkan diri dari jabatan presiden direktur Gudang Garam. Djajusman Surjowijono resmi mengundurkan diri sejak 17 Februari 2009. Djajusman sudah menjabat sebagai presdir sejak Juni 2000. Penggantinya sementara adalah Susilo Wonowidjojo yang saat ini masih menjabat wakil presiden direktur sejak 1990.
"Bapak Susilo Wonowidjojo mempunyai wewenenang dan tanggung jawab yang sama sebagai Presiden Direktur sampai Rapat Umum Pemegang Saham mengangkat Presiden Direktur," kata Corporate Secretary Gudang Garam, Heru Budiman dalam keterbukaan informasi ke Bursa Efek Indonesia, Kamis (19/2/2009). Pada saat yang sama dewan komisaris juga menunjuk Juni Setiawati Wonowidjojo untuk menjalankan kewajiban sebagai komisaris utama yang selama ini kosong setelah meninggalnya Presiden Komisaris Rachman Halim.
Juni yang sebelumnya menjabat komisaris mempunyai wewenenang dan tanggung jawab yang sama sebagai Presiden Komisaris sampai Rapat Umum Pemegang Saham mengangkat Presiden Komisaris.
Detikfinance Adhi Karya Incar Tender 4 Proyek Jalan Tol Rp 1,7 Triliun
Jakarta - PT Adhi Karya Tbk (ADHI) sedang mengincar tender 4 proyek jalan tol di pulau Jawa senilai Rp 1,7 triliun. Perseroan menargetkan dapat meraih tender-tender tersebut semester I-2009 ini. "Kami sedang mengikuti tender 4 proyek tol di Jawa senilai Rp 1,7 triliun," ujar Corporate Secretary ADHI, Kurnadi Gularso dalam acara di restoran Oasis, Jl Raden Saleh, Jakarta, Kamis (19/2/2009).
Kurnadi mengatakan, seluruh proyek tersebut berada di pulau Jawa. Sayangnya, ia enggan membeberkan ruas mana saja yang sedang diincar perseroan. "Nanti saja deh. Tapi kita harap semester I ini sudah bisa kita dapat," ujarnya. Mengenai proyek monorail, Kurnadi mengatakan hingga saat ini perseroan belum bisa memberikan komentar. Perseroan masih menunggu keputusan dari instansi terkait.
"Saat ini sedang diaudit oleh BKP daerah. Kita harap hasilnya keluar minggu-minggu ini. Baru kita bisa putuskan apakah akan kita lepas atau seperti apa," ujarnya. Tahun 2008, perseroan membukukan pendapatan belum diaudit (unaudited) sebesar Rp 6,6 triliun. Laba bersih perseroan unaudited tahun 2008 sebesar Rp 138 miliar. "Tahun ini target kita pendapatan Rp 6,7 triliun. Untuk laba bersih Rp 160 miliar," ujar Kurnadi.
Bloomberg Asian Stocks Rise as Yen Weakens, China Widens Stimulus Plans
Feb. 19 (Bloomberg) -- Asian stocks rose for the first time in four days as a weaker yen improved the earnings prospects for Japanese exporters and China stepped up measures to bolster its economy.
Toyota Motor Corp., which makes 37 percent of its sales in North America, climbed 2.6 percent in Tokyo as the yen traded near its weakest this year against the dollar. China National Software & Service Co., which designs language software, jumped 10 percent in Shanghai after a stimulus package for the industry was approved. Iluka Resources Ltd., the world’s biggest zircon producer, gained 12 percent in Sydney after profit surged.
“There appears to be some light at the end of the tunnel,” said Nader Naeimi, an investment strategist at AMP Capital Investors in Sydney, which manages about $85 billion. “But you still don’t know if there’s a train coming toward you. We’re still dealing with a sharp synchronized slowdown, and the underlying concern remains global growth.” more...
Toyota Motor Corp., which makes 37 percent of its sales in North America, climbed 2.6 percent in Tokyo as the yen traded near its weakest this year against the dollar. China National Software & Service Co., which designs language software, jumped 10 percent in Shanghai after a stimulus package for the industry was approved. Iluka Resources Ltd., the world’s biggest zircon producer, gained 12 percent in Sydney after profit surged.
“There appears to be some light at the end of the tunnel,” said Nader Naeimi, an investment strategist at AMP Capital Investors in Sydney, which manages about $85 billion. “But you still don’t know if there’s a train coming toward you. We’re still dealing with a sharp synchronized slowdown, and the underlying concern remains global growth.” more...
Danareksa TINS - Company Visit TP idr2000
Memfokuskan pada pertambangan offshore (lepas pantai)
− Pertambangan onshore semakin memakan biaya
− Buying tin ores mined buy small miners at market price
− Di 4Q08: rugi operasional mencapai ±Rp90
− TINS secara bertahap berpindah pada pertambangan
offshore
− Biaya produksi lebih stabil
− Membeli lebih banyak dredge (mesin pengeruk)
• FY08: 7 small suction dredges
• FY09: 2 bucket wheel dredges + 3 small suction dredges
− Pertambangan offshore di FY09 diharapkan akan mencapai 50% total produksi (50% dari 43.000 ton)
• FY07 —> 20% offshore : 65% onshore
• FY 08 —> 35% offshore : 65% onshore
Transaksi timah ilegal
− Penangkapan presdir Koba Tin dikarenakan transaksi illegal biji timah
− P/E ’09/’10= 5.9/2.6x; TP Rp2,000; Buy 11%
− Pertambangan onshore semakin memakan biaya
− Buying tin ores mined buy small miners at market price
− Di 4Q08: rugi operasional mencapai ±Rp90
− TINS secara bertahap berpindah pada pertambangan
offshore
− Biaya produksi lebih stabil
− Membeli lebih banyak dredge (mesin pengeruk)
• FY08: 7 small suction dredges
• FY09: 2 bucket wheel dredges + 3 small suction dredges
− Pertambangan offshore di FY09 diharapkan akan mencapai 50% total produksi (50% dari 43.000 ton)
• FY07 —> 20% offshore : 65% onshore
• FY 08 —> 35% offshore : 65% onshore
Transaksi timah ilegal
− Penangkapan presdir Koba Tin dikarenakan transaksi illegal biji timah
− P/E ’09/’10= 5.9/2.6x; TP Rp2,000; Buy 11%
Bloomberg BOJ Expands Asset-Purchase Program to Help Funding
Feb. 19 (Bloomberg) -- The Bank of Japan said it will buy 1 trillion yen ($10.7 billion) in corporate bonds from financial institutions and extend lending programs to prevent a shortage of credit from deepening the recession.
Governor Masaaki Shirakawa and his colleagues said the bank will buy bonds rated A or higher from March 4 to Sept. 30, the central bank said in a statement in Tokyo today. The board kept the overnight lending rate at 0.1 percent in a unanimous vote.
The recession is making it difficult for companies to raise finance by selling debt or shares, and banks are struggling to meet an increase in demand for loans. The cost to protect Japanese corporate debt against default soared to a record this week on concern bankruptcies will increase after the economy shrank last quarter by the most since the 1974 oil shock. more...
CIMB London Sumatra Losing Two Drivers
Company update - Losing two drivers - by Liliana Bambang
(LSIP IJ / LSIP.JK, UNDERPERFORM - Downgraded, Rp3,400 - Tgt. Rp3,100, Plantations)
We see a lack of catalysts for Lonsum from two of its businesses, rubber and seedlings. Rubber prices have been hit by sluggish auto demand coupled with more price-competitive synthetic rubber. The seedling business is likely to soften in the next few quarters as not much new plantings are being planned. We downgrade Lonsum to UNDERPERFORM from Neutral with a lower target price of Rp3,100 (from Rp3,200) following our earnings reductions of 1-4% for FY08-10. For exposure to regional planters, we recommend a switch to Indofood Agri for its better trading liquidity and purer exposure to CPO.
(LSIP IJ / LSIP.JK, UNDERPERFORM - Downgraded, Rp3,400 - Tgt. Rp3,100, Plantations)
We see a lack of catalysts for Lonsum from two of its businesses, rubber and seedlings. Rubber prices have been hit by sluggish auto demand coupled with more price-competitive synthetic rubber. The seedling business is likely to soften in the next few quarters as not much new plantings are being planned. We downgrade Lonsum to UNDERPERFORM from Neutral with a lower target price of Rp3,100 (from Rp3,200) following our earnings reductions of 1-4% for FY08-10. For exposure to regional planters, we recommend a switch to Indofood Agri for its better trading liquidity and purer exposure to CPO.
Detikfinance MIRA Beli Satu Kapal Minyak
Jakarta - PT Mitra Rajasa Tbk (MIRA) membeli satu kapal pengangkut dan penyimpan minyak atau FPSO (Floating Production Storage and Offloading) senilai US$ 25 juta. Pembelian FPSO ini dilakukan melalui anak usahanya Sabre Offshore Marine Pte Ltd (SOM) yang berkedudukan di Singapura. FPSO yang dibeli ini adalah yang ketiga.
"FPSO ini berbendera Panama dan saat ini masih berlabuh di Johor Malaysia menunggu proses penarikan di Indonesia," kata direksi MIRA dalam siaran pers, Kamis 19/2/2009). FPSO yang diberi nama PUTRI ini akan melalui proses perbaikan(refurbishment) untuk disesuaikan dengan kebutuhan ladang minyak tempat FSPO ini akan beroperasi. FPSO Putri yang memiliki panjang 100,49 meter dengan lebar 21,44 meter mempunyai kemampuan produksi minyak 10.000 BOPD dan produksi gas 10 mmscfd. Dengan kapasitas penyimpanan minyak sebesar 53.000 bbl yang terbagi dalam 11 tangki terpisah.(ir/ir)
Detikfinance Kuasai 55% Saham MNA, Jasa Marga Segera Bangun Tol Sumo
Jakarta - PT Jasa Marga Tbk resmi menguasai 55% saham PT Marga Nujyasumo Agung (MNA), perusahaan yan memiliki konsesi jalan tol Surabaya- Mojokerto (Sumo). Jasa Marga akan segera membangun tol Sumo. Jasa Marga menjadi pemegang saham mayoritas MNA, sisanya dimiliki PT Wijaya Karya Tbk 20%, Keluarga Moeladi 25%. Sebelumnya Jasa Marga hanya memiliki 1,7%. Acara penandatanganan pengalihan saham ini dilakukan pada 18 Februari 2009.
"Nota kesepakatan ini merupakan salah satu langkah Jasa Marga untuk merealisasikan komitemen perusahaan dalam berkontribusi untuk mewujudkan jalan tol Trans Jawa," kata Direktur Utama Jasa Marga, Frans S. Sunito dalam keterbukaan informasi ke BEI, Kamis (19/2/2009). Kepala Divisi Pengembangan Usaha Jalan Tol Jasa Marga, Dedy Krisnariawan mengatakan hasil due diligence menunjukkan bahwa proyek ini memiliki kelayakan yang baik. Syarat lain yang telah dikantongi Jasa Marga adalah izin Menteri PU dan kepastian Kreditur yaitu BNI. Jalan Tol Surabya-Mojokerto ini memiliki proyeksi IRR sebesar 18%.
Jalan Tol Surabaya-Mojokerto merupakan salah satu bagian dari jaringan Jalan Tol Trans Jawa. Jalan tol sepanjang 36 km dengan total investasi Rp 3 triliun akan terintegrasi dengan Jalan Tol Surabaya-Gempol yang saat ini dioperasikan oleh Jasa Marga. Jalan Tol Gempol-Pasuruan yang saat ini sedang dipersiapkan pembangunannya oleh Jasa Marga bersama-sama dengan Pemda Jawa Timur dan Pemda Kabupaten Pasuruan.
Pembangunan jalan tol Sumo ini akan dilakukan secara bertahap, dimulai dengan Seksi 1 Waru-Sepanjang, kurang lebih 4 km yang akan diperkirakan selesai akhir 2009. "Pembangunan Jalan tol ini segera dilaksanakan paling cepat 1 bulan setelah kesepakatan ini," tambah Dedy.
(ir/qom)
"Nota kesepakatan ini merupakan salah satu langkah Jasa Marga untuk merealisasikan komitemen perusahaan dalam berkontribusi untuk mewujudkan jalan tol Trans Jawa," kata Direktur Utama Jasa Marga, Frans S. Sunito dalam keterbukaan informasi ke BEI, Kamis (19/2/2009). Kepala Divisi Pengembangan Usaha Jalan Tol Jasa Marga, Dedy Krisnariawan mengatakan hasil due diligence menunjukkan bahwa proyek ini memiliki kelayakan yang baik. Syarat lain yang telah dikantongi Jasa Marga adalah izin Menteri PU dan kepastian Kreditur yaitu BNI. Jalan Tol Surabya-Mojokerto ini memiliki proyeksi IRR sebesar 18%.
Jalan Tol Surabaya-Mojokerto merupakan salah satu bagian dari jaringan Jalan Tol Trans Jawa. Jalan tol sepanjang 36 km dengan total investasi Rp 3 triliun akan terintegrasi dengan Jalan Tol Surabaya-Gempol yang saat ini dioperasikan oleh Jasa Marga. Jalan Tol Gempol-Pasuruan yang saat ini sedang dipersiapkan pembangunannya oleh Jasa Marga bersama-sama dengan Pemda Jawa Timur dan Pemda Kabupaten Pasuruan.
Pembangunan jalan tol Sumo ini akan dilakukan secara bertahap, dimulai dengan Seksi 1 Waru-Sepanjang, kurang lebih 4 km yang akan diperkirakan selesai akhir 2009. "Pembangunan Jalan tol ini segera dilaksanakan paling cepat 1 bulan setelah kesepakatan ini," tambah Dedy.
(ir/qom)
Detikfinance BEI Periksa Hubungan Keuangan Multipolar dan Matahari
Jakarta - Bursa Efek Indonesia (BEI) masih akan melakukan pemeriksaaan terhadap hubungan keuangan antara PT Multipolar Tbk (MLPL) dan anak usahanya PT Matahari Putra Prima Tbk (MPPA). Jika terbukti terjadi chain listing maka harus segera dicari jalan keluarnya. "Jika induknya tercatat di BEI dan punya anak usaha yang juga tercatat di BEI serta incomenya lebih dari 50 persen dan saling berkaitan maka itu terkena chain listing dan salah satunya harus keluar," kata Direktur Perdagangan Saham, Penelitian dan Pengembangan BEI MS Sembiring di kantornya, SCBD, Jakarta, Rabu (18/2/2009).
Berdasarkan laporan keuangan konsolidasi Multipolar pada triwulan III-2008, jumlah pendapatan perseroan mencapai Rp 9,50 triliun. Sedangkan jumlah pendapatan Matahari pada periode yang sama tercatat mencapai Rp 9,09 triliun. Sementara laba bersih Matahari tecatat Rp 183,33 miliar sedangkan laba bersih Multipolar hanya tercatat Rp 30,59 miliar.
Kepemilikan saham Multipolar di Matahari per September 2008 mencapai 50,10 persen. Artinya total pendapatan Matahari dikonsolidasikan dalam laporan keuangan Multipolar. Menanggapi hal ini, Direktur Pencatatan BEI Eddy Sugito mengatakan, BEI telah melakukan pemantauan terhadap Multipolar dan Matahari. Namun dia menyatakan kedua perusahaan tersebut tidak bisa dikategorikan chain listing.
Eddy mengakui jika dilihat dari pendapatan, kontribusi Matahari terhadap pendapatan Multipolar memang sangat besar. Namun jika dilihat dari laba bersih, maka kontribusi tersebut bisa berkurang karena adanya hak minoritas. "Kita harus lihat dulu, karena kepemilikan MLPL di MPPA kan hanya 50%. Jadi kelihatannya setelah penyesuaian terhadap hak minoritas, bukan chain listing. Tapi kita akan lihat terus perkembangannya," jelas Eddy.(dro/ir)
Detikfinance Antam Siap Olah Konsentrat Freeport
Jakarta - PT Aneka Tambang Tbk (Antam) siap mengolah konsentrat dari PT Freeport dengan menggunakan proses pemurnian di unit pengolahan (smelter) yang dimilikinya.
"Mengolah konsentrat dari Freeport menggunakan proses pemurnian di unit logam mulia," ujar Direktur Utama PT Alwiansayah usai RDP dengan Komisi VII DPR di gedung DPR Jakarta, Rabu (18/2/2009).
Alwinsyah menyebutkan pihaknya telah melakukan pembicaraan dengan Freeport melalui Departemen ESDM dan Departemen Perindustrian. "Dengan Freeport sudah ada pembicaraan melalui Departemen ESDM dan Departemen Perindustrian. Bahkan kita sudah test di tempat kita di Jakarta," ungkapnya.
Alwinsyah menjelaskan hal ini merupakan dampak positif dari adanya UU Minerba yang mengharuskan pengolahan di dalam negeri. "Sehingga membuka peluang bagi BUMN untuk melakukan pengolahan dan permurnian hasil hasil tambang dari pemegang ijin usaha pertambangan (IUP) lain," ungkapnya.
Associated Press Fed downgrades economic forecast for this year
WASHINGTON (AP) -- The Federal Reserve on Wednesday sharply downgraded its projections for the country's economic performance this year, predicting the economy will actually shrink and unemployment will rise higher. Under the new projections, the unemployment rate will rise to between 8.5 and 8.8 percent this year. The old forecasts, issued in mid-November, predicted the jobless rate would rise to between 7.1 and 7.6 percent.
The Fed also believes the economy will contract this year between 0.5 and 1.3 percent. The old forecast said the economy could shrink by 0.2 percent or expand by 1.1 percent. The last time the economy registered a contraction for a full year was in 1991, by 0.2 percent. If the Fed's new predictions prove correct, it would mark the weakest showing since a 1.9 percent drop in 1982, when the country had suffered through a severe recession.
The bleaker outlook represents the growing toll of the worst housing, credit and financial crises since the 1930s. All of those negative forces have plunged the nation into a recession, now in its second year. "Given the strength of the forces currently weighing on the economy," Fed officials "generally expected that the recovery would be unusually gradual and prolonged," according to documents on the Fed's updated economic outlook. more...
Detikfinance Danamon Rights Issue di Harga Rp 1.200
Jakarta - PT Bank Danamon Indonesia Tbk mengumumkan rencana untuk menambah permodalannya melalui penawaran umum terbatas kepada pemegang saham dalam rangka penerbitan Hak Untuk Memesan Efek Terlebih Dahulu (HMETD) atau Rights Issue. Sehubungan dengan rencana rights issue tersebut, Danamon hari ini telah menyampaikan Pernyataan Pendaftaran ke Bapepam-LK.
Harga Penawaran sebesar Rp 1.200 per saham berarti diskon 46,7% dari harga penutupan sebesar Rp 2.250 pada tanggal 17 Februari 2009 (harga penutupan terakhir sebelum
penyampaian Pernyataan Pendaftaran kepada Bapepam-LK) dan potongan harga sebesar rata-rata 34,2% atas harga teoritis sebelum Rights Issue sebesar Rp 1.825 per saham. Pada penutupan hari ini, harga saham Danamon Rp 2.500.
Rights Issue ini diharapkan akan semakin memperkuat posisi permodalan Danamon dan meningkatkan kapasitas untuk memanfaatkan peluang untuk tumbuh di segmen pembiayaan usaha mikro, kecil dan menengah (UMKM).
Presdir Bank Danamon Sebastian Paredes menjelaskan, posisi permodalan Danamon saat ini kuat dengan rasio modal inti (Tier 1 Capital) terkonsolidasi dan rasio kecukupan modal (CAR) masing-masing sebesar 13,8% dan 15,4%. Angka ini di atas rasio minimum yang ditetapkan oleh Bank Indonesia masing-masing 4% dan 8%. Dengan memperhitungkan perolehan dana dari Rights Issue ini maka proforma rasio modal inti (Tier 1 capital) terkonsolidasi dan rasio kecukupan modal (CAR) meningkat menjadi masing-masing 19,2% dan 20,8% per 31 Desember 2008. more...
Associated Press Stocks end little changed on worries about economy
NEW YORK (AP) -- Investors took scant comfort Wednesday from the government's plans to revive the housing market and overall economy.
Wall Street ended with only modest changes after a steep sell-off Tuesday on worries about the global economy and banks in Eastern Europe. Several moderate rallies unraveled Wednesday as market indicators hovered around the lows they marked in November.
Investors reacted coolly to a $75 billion mortgage relief plan President Barack Obama introduced on Wednesday, which would provide incentives to mortgage lenders to help borrowers reduce their payments.
Plunging home values are at the center of the 14-month-old recession, which has been one of the most severe in decades. The announcement came a day after Obama signed into law a $787 billion economic stimulus plan. more...
Palmoil HQ Crude palm oil futures finish in the red
Crude palm oil futures recovered nearly two-thirds of the day’s loss after tumbling to nine-day lows on short-covering, but still finished in the red for a third straight day yesterday, traders said.
An early sell-off was sparked by faltering soya and crude oil prices amid recession fears, while late buying was partly fuelled by hopes that Malaysian palm stocks may continue to fall this month.
“I don’t think there is any sudden change in fundamentals of palm. Outside factors prompted the selling in early session but we saw support below RM1,850 level,” said a trader at brokerage firm. “Stocks are not really a concern. We should see end stocks for February close to 1.7 million tonnes. So it is still going to fall,” the trader said.
Falling Malaysian palm stocks are key in supporting the prices of the tropical oil, which have steadily climbed from the October 28 low of RM1,331. The benchmark May contract fell RM20, or 1.1 per cent, to RM1,875 per tonne, having gone down as low as RM1,842, the level unseen since February 6.
The benchmark contract has failed to hold above the key resistance level of RM2,000 in recent rally amid concerns over prospects for demand. Other traded contracts fell between RM16 and RM34. Overall volume was 13,076 lots of 25 tonnes each. - Reuters
Rabu, 18 Februari 2009
MacQ Perusahaan Gas Negara: Steady Ship in Rough Seas
*Perusahaan Gas Negara: Steady Ship in Rough Seas*
Adam Worthington’s (analyst) channel checks with the operators of the Muara Tawar power plant highlight that the Muara Tawar oil to gas conversion process is complete. He understands the company is now delivering over 240 MMSCFD, and PLN is requesting the full 300 MMSCFD. In terms of total volumes PGAS is now running about about 780 MMSCFD and is on track to win some more gas sales agreement with PLN (and another third party). He sees upside risk to our 2009E distribution forecast of 800 MMSCFD. For a defensive utility company with visible growth profile like PGAS, the stock appears attractive on FY09 PER of 7.7x, FCF yield of 6.8%, and a div yield of 3.6%, roughly a 30% discount to the regional peers. For every 10% change in distribution volume forecast, EPS will change by 10%. Meanwhile, a weaker Rp/US$ exchange rate will also lift EPS.
Adam Worthington’s (analyst) channel checks with the operators of the Muara Tawar power plant highlight that the Muara Tawar oil to gas conversion process is complete. He understands the company is now delivering over 240 MMSCFD, and PLN is requesting the full 300 MMSCFD. In terms of total volumes PGAS is now running about about 780 MMSCFD and is on track to win some more gas sales agreement with PLN (and another third party). He sees upside risk to our 2009E distribution forecast of 800 MMSCFD. For a defensive utility company with visible growth profile like PGAS, the stock appears attractive on FY09 PER of 7.7x, FCF yield of 6.8%, and a div yield of 3.6%, roughly a 30% discount to the regional peers. For every 10% change in distribution volume forecast, EPS will change by 10%. Meanwhile, a weaker Rp/US$ exchange rate will also lift EPS.
MacQ United Tractors: January Data Shows some Light?
*United Tractors: January data shows some light?*
The January operating data shows (1) Total heavy equipment sales of 216 units (-56% YoY), in-line with the guided run-rate of around 200 per month, (2) Mining contracting coal production of 4.8mt (+4% YoY), and (3) Own coal mining production of 201,000 tons (-44% YoY) due to heavy rain. On the surface, the heavy equipment sales number is on-track with the management’s conservative guidance of 2,400 units (2,000 pre-order and 400 additional). Below the surface, the sales mix between big and small equipment is encouraging. Of the 216 units, 100 or 46% turns out to be bigger units. For the full year 2008, big units only comprise of 18% of total unit sales.
This could be the area where most sell side analysts miss when they slashed EPS estimate based on lower management guidance several months back. The sales mix among agro, construction, forestry, and mining equipment supports our theory – in Jan-09, mining equipment accounts for 80% of unit sales, whereas in Jan-08, it only accounts for 39%. Agro equipment, on the other hand, accounts for 11% in Jan-09, compared to 31% in Jan-08. On Macq forecast the stock trades on FY09 PER of 6.7x , 7.2% div yield, and 9.4% FCF yield. Macquarie’s estimate, where Albert Saputro is already above consensus by 17% on EBITDA and by 22% on EPS. Comparable Leighton Holdings trades on 8.6x PER.
The January operating data shows (1) Total heavy equipment sales of 216 units (-56% YoY), in-line with the guided run-rate of around 200 per month, (2) Mining contracting coal production of 4.8mt (+4% YoY), and (3) Own coal mining production of 201,000 tons (-44% YoY) due to heavy rain. On the surface, the heavy equipment sales number is on-track with the management’s conservative guidance of 2,400 units (2,000 pre-order and 400 additional). Below the surface, the sales mix between big and small equipment is encouraging. Of the 216 units, 100 or 46% turns out to be bigger units. For the full year 2008, big units only comprise of 18% of total unit sales.
This could be the area where most sell side analysts miss when they slashed EPS estimate based on lower management guidance several months back. The sales mix among agro, construction, forestry, and mining equipment supports our theory – in Jan-09, mining equipment accounts for 80% of unit sales, whereas in Jan-08, it only accounts for 39%. Agro equipment, on the other hand, accounts for 11% in Jan-09, compared to 31% in Jan-08. On Macq forecast the stock trades on FY09 PER of 6.7x , 7.2% div yield, and 9.4% FCF yield. Macquarie’s estimate, where Albert Saputro is already above consensus by 17% on EBITDA and by 22% on EPS. Comparable Leighton Holdings trades on 8.6x PER.
Danareksa UNTR Higher Jan 09 Sales with Pama’s Help
Higher Jan 09 sales with Pama’s help
UNTR was able to deliver 216 units in Jan 09. Of this, 23% were delivered to Pama. Pama usually accounts for only around 15% of the sales. UNTR said this trend of higher Pama sales will likely continue up to June 09 asPama needs to replace existing equipment and purchase new equipment to expand its capacity. Pama expects to spend $250mn on capex this year as its 09F production target has been increased by 10% yoy while its stripping ratio shows no signs of coming down (Jan 09’s SR: 8.1 vs FY08’s 7.5).
Maintaining a Leading Position
Komatsu has retained its leading position in the heavy equipment market and its market share in Jan 09 increased significantly to 51.8% from 44.6% in Dec 08. As such, we believe our target of 3,000 units for the full year is reasonable as the backlog for unit sales has reached 750 units and, in addition, we expect demand to recover in 2H09 as commodity prices stabilize.
Weak Pama & DEJ production due to seasonality
Pama’s Jan 09 coal production was weak at 4.8mn tons, 7.3% of our full year target. The weak coal production can be explained by seasonal factors as high rainfall tends to hamper production, in South Kalimantan. DEJ was only able to sell 201,000 tons of coal in Jan 09, 5% of our full year forecast.
Upgrade TP to Rp6,100, maintain BUY
We raise our 09-10F earnings forecasts by 17.5%-16.1% as we apply new forex, inflation, and lower tax rate assumptions to our forecasts. UNTR remains one of our top picks in the commodity sector as we like its business model and robust earnings growth (2008-10F EBITDA CAGR of 19.9% and 2009-10F ROE of 21.3%-19.3%). Our TP implies PE09-10F of 8.5-7.9x, BUY.
UNTR was able to deliver 216 units in Jan 09. Of this, 23% were delivered to Pama. Pama usually accounts for only around 15% of the sales. UNTR said this trend of higher Pama sales will likely continue up to June 09 asPama needs to replace existing equipment and purchase new equipment to expand its capacity. Pama expects to spend $250mn on capex this year as its 09F production target has been increased by 10% yoy while its stripping ratio shows no signs of coming down (Jan 09’s SR: 8.1 vs FY08’s 7.5).
Maintaining a Leading Position
Komatsu has retained its leading position in the heavy equipment market and its market share in Jan 09 increased significantly to 51.8% from 44.6% in Dec 08. As such, we believe our target of 3,000 units for the full year is reasonable as the backlog for unit sales has reached 750 units and, in addition, we expect demand to recover in 2H09 as commodity prices stabilize.
Weak Pama & DEJ production due to seasonality
Pama’s Jan 09 coal production was weak at 4.8mn tons, 7.3% of our full year target. The weak coal production can be explained by seasonal factors as high rainfall tends to hamper production, in South Kalimantan. DEJ was only able to sell 201,000 tons of coal in Jan 09, 5% of our full year forecast.
Upgrade TP to Rp6,100, maintain BUY
We raise our 09-10F earnings forecasts by 17.5%-16.1% as we apply new forex, inflation, and lower tax rate assumptions to our forecasts. UNTR remains one of our top picks in the commodity sector as we like its business model and robust earnings growth (2008-10F EBITDA CAGR of 19.9% and 2009-10F ROE of 21.3%-19.3%). Our TP implies PE09-10F of 8.5-7.9x, BUY.
CIMB Indofood Agri Resources
Quick takes - Flagging biological asset write-downs for 4Q - by Ivy Ng Lee Fang CFA
(IFAR SP / IFAR.SI, TRADING BUY - Maintained, S$0.56 - Tgt. S$0.77, Plantations)
Indofood Agri has announced a "non-cash" write-down of Rp663bn (or S$85.6m) for changes in the fair value of its biological assets (net of associated deferred tax effect) for FY08. We are not too surprised in view of the significant downturn in CPO prices towards 2H08 and the fact that the group reviews its biological-asset valuations half-yearly. However, we were slightly surprised by the timing of the announcement, ahead of its results release, which is not a normal practice. Overall, we are neutral as the write-down is a non-cash item and will not affect our earnings projections. Maintain Trading Buy and target price of S$0.77 (forward P/E of 10x).
(IFAR SP / IFAR.SI, TRADING BUY - Maintained, S$0.56 - Tgt. S$0.77, Plantations)
Indofood Agri has announced a "non-cash" write-down of Rp663bn (or S$85.6m) for changes in the fair value of its biological assets (net of associated deferred tax effect) for FY08. We are not too surprised in view of the significant downturn in CPO prices towards 2H08 and the fact that the group reviews its biological-asset valuations half-yearly. However, we were slightly surprised by the timing of the announcement, ahead of its results release, which is not a normal practice. Overall, we are neutral as the write-down is a non-cash item and will not affect our earnings projections. Maintain Trading Buy and target price of S$0.77 (forward P/E of 10x).
BASML BMRI raised PO 17% to Rp 2,800
Bank Mandiri
Bank Mandiri (BMRI IJ) is now Arief’s top pick out of Indonesia. He raised PO 17% to Rp 2,800 and lifts 2009-10 forecast bottom line by 12-29%. BMRI has successfully revolutionized its operation, strengthened risk management, and cleaned up loan portfolio over the last 4 years and these structural changes are set to deliver sustainable improvement in earnings and RoE. As Indonesia implements easing monetary and expansionary fiscal policies, Arief see 2009-10 earnings benefits from higher NIM, better than anticipated loan growth, and resilient economic growth hence lower loan loss provisions. Stock trades on 6.3x EPS and 1.1x P/BV '09. Arief thinks the bank worth 1.7x BV when market realize fears about relaps restructured loan in BMRI is out of place.
Bank Mandiri (BMRI IJ) is now Arief’s top pick out of Indonesia. He raised PO 17% to Rp 2,800 and lifts 2009-10 forecast bottom line by 12-29%. BMRI has successfully revolutionized its operation, strengthened risk management, and cleaned up loan portfolio over the last 4 years and these structural changes are set to deliver sustainable improvement in earnings and RoE. As Indonesia implements easing monetary and expansionary fiscal policies, Arief see 2009-10 earnings benefits from higher NIM, better than anticipated loan growth, and resilient economic growth hence lower loan loss provisions. Stock trades on 6.3x EPS and 1.1x P/BV '09. Arief thinks the bank worth 1.7x BV when market realize fears about relaps restructured loan in BMRI is out of place.
BASML BDMN: raised PxT to Rp 4,250
BDMN: raised PxT to Rp 4,250
Our 2nd favorite name in Indonesia as BDMN is well positioned to benefit from declining interest rate thanks to its hefty time deposits (73% of total) and high LDR (87%). Arief raised PxT by 16% to Rp4,250 to reflect: (1) a 26% increase in our 2009 earnings (we keep 2010 unchanged) and (2) a 1ppt reduction in WACC to 17% as we expect macroeconomic headwinds to decrease. On concern over its remaining F/X forward contract, we believe BDMN has made enough provisions (US$73mn) for the balance. The net notional amount of its F/X contract has declined 84% to US$230mn. Separately, Bloomberg reported BDMN plans to raise ~Rp4tn in rights issue, priced at ~45% discount. We view the pricing as attractive if done based on / below current share price given the stock is now trading at depressed 5.3x '09 P/E and 0.9x '09 P/BV, or 50% disc to our fair P/BV of 1.8x.
Our 2nd favorite name in Indonesia as BDMN is well positioned to benefit from declining interest rate thanks to its hefty time deposits (73% of total) and high LDR (87%). Arief raised PxT by 16% to Rp4,250 to reflect: (1) a 26% increase in our 2009 earnings (we keep 2010 unchanged) and (2) a 1ppt reduction in WACC to 17% as we expect macroeconomic headwinds to decrease. On concern over its remaining F/X forward contract, we believe BDMN has made enough provisions (US$73mn) for the balance. The net notional amount of its F/X contract has declined 84% to US$230mn. Separately, Bloomberg reported BDMN plans to raise ~Rp4tn in rights issue, priced at ~45% discount. We view the pricing as attractive if done based on / below current share price given the stock is now trading at depressed 5.3x '09 P/E and 0.9x '09 P/BV, or 50% disc to our fair P/BV of 1.8x.
CIMB BDMN Righting through rights?
Company update - Righting through rights? - by Mulya Chandra CFA (BDMN IJ / BDMN.JK, TRADING BUY - Upgraded, Rp2,250 - Tgt. Rp2,900, Financial Services)
A rights issue would appear a sensible solution for Danamon's two most urgent capital needs: retiring its sub debt and raising its stake in Adira Finance. We are positive on a potential rights issue on the view that it could restore Danamon's optimal capacity as a mass market-focused bank with potential high growth. Our DuPont analysis shows that its long-term ROE could improve to 19.5% when capital needs are addressed, justifying a valuation of 1.6x forward P/BV. We upgrade the stock to Trading Buy from Underperform, with a higher GGM-based target price of Rp2,900 (from Rp2,400).
Mandiri Sekuritas BDMN Rights issue to dilute Danamon’s valuation?
Even though losses from derivative transaction will no longer occur this year, we believe the year 2009 will remain tough due to lower loan growth, lower fee based income and possible deterioration of asset quality. Meanwhile, the bank’s plan to hold rights issue is plausible, in our view. Extrapolating weighted PER post rights issue at 9.9x based on rights issue size of Rp4.25tn, we arrived at Rp3,000/share as our new target price post rights issue. Maintain buy.
No dilution from the rights issue. BDMN plans to hold a rights issue in the near term. Assuming the rights issue will be used to retire the bank’s US$300mn subdebt and to increase its stakes at Adira Finance (despite gloomy outlook for multifinance companies this year, we believe the decision to acquire additional stakes at ADMF to be strategic considering its 35.6% CAGR net profit growth for 2004-2008 and its 35%-40% contribution to the bank’s earnings), we estimate additional earnings of Rp331bn for BDMN from the rights issue. Further, our calculation shows that the weighted PER post rights issue us! ing the c urrent share price (8.5x and 8.9x) is still below PER using our previous TP of Rp3,300/share (9.9x). Extrapolating weighted PER post rights issue at 9.9x based on rights issue size of Rp4.25tn, we arrived at Rp3,000/share as our new target price post rights issue. Maintain buy.
No dilution from the rights issue. BDMN plans to hold a rights issue in the near term. Assuming the rights issue will be used to retire the bank’s US$300mn subdebt and to increase its stakes at Adira Finance (despite gloomy outlook for multifinance companies this year, we believe the decision to acquire additional stakes at ADMF to be strategic considering its 35.6% CAGR net profit growth for 2004-2008 and its 35%-40% contribution to the bank’s earnings), we estimate additional earnings of Rp331bn for BDMN from the rights issue. Further, our calculation shows that the weighted PER post rights issue us! ing the c urrent share price (8.5x and 8.9x) is still below PER using our previous TP of Rp3,300/share (9.9x). Extrapolating weighted PER post rights issue at 9.9x based on rights issue size of Rp4.25tn, we arrived at Rp3,000/share as our new target price post rights issue. Maintain buy.
Kim Eng BUY note on Bukit Asam
Ricardo Silaen published a BUY note on Bukit Asam. He expects net profit to peak in 2009, soaring by 62% YoY to Rp2.9t on the back of higher coal production and higher domestic price. Margin expansion is expected as production cost, driven by lower fuel price, is likely to drop. Management aims to produce 13m tons of coal and sell 15.5m tons in 2009 with total revenue between Rp10t and Rp11t. Ricardo’s forecast is more conservative, with assumption of sales volume of 15m tons in 2009 or increase by 17% YoY. In 2010 he assumes growth of 9% with total sales volume of 16.4m tons or 50% more compared to that in 2007. After years of stagnant production, in 2008 Bukit Asam was able to boost its coal production to above 10m tons. It produced 10.8m tons of coal, or 16% higher compared to that in 2007. This is attributable to improvement in transportation system, especially railway from the state owned company PT Kereta Api from mine in Tanjung Enim to Tarahan and Kertapati.
BUY, TP is Rp11,600 (55% potential upside).
BUY, TP is Rp11,600 (55% potential upside).
Palmoil HQ Crude palm oil futures at 1-week low
February 18, 2009 3:00 GMT+8Malaysian crude palm futures dropped for the second day in a row yesterday, to finish at a one-week low amid concerns over weaker exports, traders said.
“I think the market is expecting the end stocks this month could rebuild above the January figure because of slow exports, unless production drop sharply,” a trader at a Malaysian commodities brokerage said.
The benchmark May contract fell RM27, or 1.4 per cent, to RM1,895 per tonne, the lowest level since February 10. Other traded contracts were mostly lower, falling between RM6 and RM30. Overall volume was 21,477 lots of 25 tonnes each. Prices of the tropical oil have been steadily climbing from the October 28 low of RM1,331, but have failed to hold above the key resistance level of RM2,000 amid concerns over prospects for demand.
Cargo surveyor Societe Generale de Surveillance said on Monday exports of Malaysian palm oil products for Feb. 1-15 fell 13.4 per cent to 494,172 tonnes from 570,602 tonnes shipped between Jan. 1 and 15.
“I guess the market was overdone when it moved to the RM2,000 level recently and the current fundamentals could not sustain the rally,” the same trader said. - Reuters
GlobalCoal China January coal imports up 12 pct on weak prices
Source: Reuters (17 Feb 2009)
SHANGHAI, Feb 17 - China imported 12 percent more coal in January than the previous month, as the country's power plants and steel mills capitalised on weak global prices.
The uptrend in imports is likely to continue in February as ever-slumping demand from traditionally large importers such as Japan and Korea leads to softer prices, allowing China to import more hydrocarbon, traders and analysts said. The world's largest coal producer and consumer imported 2.99 million tonnes of coal in January, up 12 percent from the previous month but down 29.5 percent from the year-earlier period, data from the General Administration of Customs showed on Tuesday.
The rise in Chinese imports came despite the week-long Lunar New Year holidays when industrial activity normally grinds to a halt.
For a graphic of China's coal imports and exports, click: https://customers.reuters.com/d/graphics/CN_CLIMPEX0209.jpg
China's power plants and traders have been taking advantage of cheaper prices in international markets, traders said. "Imports from Vietnam jumped in January after Vietnam loosened up its policy on coal exports, and now prices are less than half the highest point in the last year," said a Guangdong-based trader, adding that February imports are likely to climb too. Prices of Vietnamese coal at Guangzhou, the capital of the southern province of Guangdong, have fallen by nearly half from last summer's highs, according to the South China Coal Trade Center (www.huanancoal.com).
Australian coal, once too expensive, is now affordable, traders said.
Prices of power-station coal from Australia, a benchmark for Asia, are hovering above $80 per tonne on the globalCOAL Newcastle weekly index, down almost 50 percent from six months earlier. And prices of Chinese coal with a heating value of 5,500 kcal/kg have slid almost 46 percent to 650-670 yuan ($95 -$98) per tonne from six months earlier, the South China Coal Trade Center said.
"The weakness in demand in the traditional markets in the region determines that Indonesia, Vietnam and Australia have more than abundant supply of coal," said Henry Liu, an analyst at Macquarie Bank, adding that it was hard to say how long such a trend would last. Coal exports in January fell 18 percent on the month to 3.66 million tonnes, as the weakness in international market dampened the enthusiasm of exporters.
RISE IN COKING COAL IMPORTS
Imports of coking coal, a key raw material in steel-making, also rose in January, traders said. "Steel mills are returning to life now, and I've seen quite a lot of coking coal imports from Australia," said a second trader based in Guangdong. China's coking coal imports dropped to 337,131 tonnes in October 2008, before rising to 707,111 tonnes in December, according to the official customs data.
"Coking coal imports dropped to almost nothing at the end of last year, but now the small- and medium-sized steel mills are returning to production and demand for coking coal is up," said the first trader. Detailed January trade data including breakdown by coal types will be released later this month. ($1=6.835 yuan)
Bloomberg Corn, Soybeans Tumble as Asian, European Slumps Curtail Demand
Feb. 17 (Bloomberg) -- Corn plunged the most in three weeks and soybeans fell to the lowest since December as a deepening recession in Europe and Asia erodes demand for the crops used in food and livestock feed.
A “severe” slump will persist for most of 2009, Group of Seven finance ministers and central bankers said in a statement released after a Feb. 14 meeting in Rome. The Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index of 19 raw materials today touched the lowest since June 2002, led by heating oil, crude oil and copper, which all fell more than 7 percent.
“The continued weak-demand picture is dominating the market,” Doug Bergman, a grain broker at Advantage Traders Group in Chicago, said in a report. “The economic problems we are seeing in the U.S. may end up being nothing compared to the problems other countries may experience.”
Corn futures for May delivery fell 14.25 cents, or 3.8 percent, to $3.59 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade, the biggest drop since Jan. 27. The grain has fallen for six straight weeks and is down 55 percent from a record $7.9925 on June 27. The March contract, the most-active until today, fell 14 cents to $3.4925.
Soybean futures for May delivery fell 53.25 cents, or 5.6 percent, to $9.045 a bushel in Chicago, after earlier reaching $9.005, the lowest for a most-active contract since Dec. 24. The price has dropped 45 percent from a record $16.3675 on July 3. The March contract fell 52.5 cents to $9.03 a bushel. more...
A “severe” slump will persist for most of 2009, Group of Seven finance ministers and central bankers said in a statement released after a Feb. 14 meeting in Rome. The Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index of 19 raw materials today touched the lowest since June 2002, led by heating oil, crude oil and copper, which all fell more than 7 percent.
“The continued weak-demand picture is dominating the market,” Doug Bergman, a grain broker at Advantage Traders Group in Chicago, said in a report. “The economic problems we are seeing in the U.S. may end up being nothing compared to the problems other countries may experience.”
Corn futures for May delivery fell 14.25 cents, or 3.8 percent, to $3.59 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade, the biggest drop since Jan. 27. The grain has fallen for six straight weeks and is down 55 percent from a record $7.9925 on June 27. The March contract, the most-active until today, fell 14 cents to $3.4925.
Soybean futures for May delivery fell 53.25 cents, or 5.6 percent, to $9.045 a bushel in Chicago, after earlier reaching $9.005, the lowest for a most-active contract since Dec. 24. The price has dropped 45 percent from a record $16.3675 on July 3. The March contract fell 52.5 cents to $9.03 a bushel. more...
Associated Press Obama signing huge stimulus, readying other steps
Obama to sign stimulus bill ahead of plans to stem foreclosures and reorganize automakers Tuesday February 17, 2009, 3:39 pm EST
DENVER (AP) -- President Barack Obama put his own indelible imprint on the nation's distressed economy Tuesday, signing the huge recovery package into law, readying a $50 billion proposal to help homeowners fend off foreclosure and awaiting emergency restructuring plans from flailing automakers.
Obama said the sprawling legislation, which congressional Democrats pushed to passage last week over near-unanimous opposition from Republicans, would "set our economy on a firmer foundation."
Obama's first major piece of legislation, it's a $787 billion mix of tax cuts and one of the biggest public spending programs since World War II.
"I don't want to pretend that today marks the end of our economic problems. Nor does it constitute all of what we have to do to turn our economy around. But today does mark the beginning of the end, the beginning of what we need to do to create jobs for Americans scrambling in the wake of layoffs," Obama said. more...
Reuters Stocks sink to November lows on recession fears
Tuesday February 17, 2009, 4:40 pm ESTNEW YORK (Reuters) - Stocks slid within striking distance of the November bear-market low on Tuesday, as grim manufacturing data signaled the recession is worsening and warnings on risks facing European banks underscored the continuing toll of the financial crisis.
Financial stocks sank to 14-year lows after Moody's Investors Service said banks could be hit by the recession in Eastern Europe, pulling the S&P Financial index (^GSPF - News) down 8 percent.
Data showing a sharp contraction in Japan's economy set the tone early in the day and helped yank oil prices down nearly 7 percent to below $35 a barrel. Chevron and Exxon Mobil were the Dow's biggest drags, sliding more than 4 percent.
"As we retest these November lows, the reality that sets in is that we may have another leg to go down in the economy and the market," said Bucky Hellwig, senior vice president at Morgan Asset Management in Birmingham, Alabama. more...
Associated Press Oil slips below $35 as global markets tumble
Oil slips below $35 per barrel with demand expectations bleak and global markets falling. Tuesday February 17, 2009, 4:19 pm EST
HOUSTON (AP) -- A new batch of lousy economic news dragged oil prices down nearly 7 percent Tuesday, as signs from across the globe pointed to a prolonged and painful recession. Light, sweet crude for March delivery fell $2.58 to settle at $34.93 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. A number of other commodities fell hard too as people sought less volatile investments.
"The recession is getting worse in their eyes," said Phil Flynn, an analyst at Alaron Trading Corp. "We've gone from a year when we didn't think we were going to have enough of any commodity to a situation where we're going to end the year with oversupply." Energy analysts at Raymond James & Associates said broader market concerns are depressing crude prices, even as President Barack Obama on Tuesday signed the $787 billion stimulus package into law.
"The market doesn't seem to think that this plan is going to solve the economic problems in the short term," Raymond James said in a note to clients Tuesday.
Stocks took a nosedive in trading Tuesday, as Wall Street reacted to unsettling news from the automotive and retail fronts, as well as slumping markets from Asia to Europe. more...
HOUSTON (AP) -- A new batch of lousy economic news dragged oil prices down nearly 7 percent Tuesday, as signs from across the globe pointed to a prolonged and painful recession. Light, sweet crude for March delivery fell $2.58 to settle at $34.93 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. A number of other commodities fell hard too as people sought less volatile investments.
"The recession is getting worse in their eyes," said Phil Flynn, an analyst at Alaron Trading Corp. "We've gone from a year when we didn't think we were going to have enough of any commodity to a situation where we're going to end the year with oversupply." Energy analysts at Raymond James & Associates said broader market concerns are depressing crude prices, even as President Barack Obama on Tuesday signed the $787 billion stimulus package into law.
"The market doesn't seem to think that this plan is going to solve the economic problems in the short term," Raymond James said in a note to clients Tuesday.
Stocks took a nosedive in trading Tuesday, as Wall Street reacted to unsettling news from the automotive and retail fronts, as well as slumping markets from Asia to Europe. more...
Selasa, 17 Februari 2009
Detikfinance Clough Limited Pastikan Penjualan 82% Saham Petrosea
Jakarta - Clough Limited membenarkan pihaknya sedang melakukan proses penjualan 82% saham PT Petrosea Tbk (PTRO). Clough Limited mengumumkan secara resmi rencana tersebut untuk menghindari rumor yang bisa berdampak ke saham Petrosea."Clough Limited mengkonfirmasi bahwa direksi sedang menyelesaikan proses untuk menjual 82% saham perusahaan di Pterosea," kata Chief Executive Officer (CEO) Clough Limited, John Smith dalam keterbukaan informasi ke Australian Securities Exchange, Selasa (17/2/2009).
Keputusan ini diambil Clough Limited, karena perseroan ingin memperkuat fokus bisnisnya di sektor minyak dan gas bumi. Perseroan telah menunjuk penasehat untuk membantu proses penjualan dan melakukan diskusi dengan sejumlah pihak.
Clough Limited merupakan perusahaan rekayasa dan konstruksi disektor migas, mineral dan sektor infrastruktur yang beroperasi di wilayah Australia, Indonesia dan Asia Timur. Clough Limited memiliki saham di Petrosea melalui Clough International Singapore Pte Ltd.
PT Indika Energy Tbk (INDY) dikabarkan akan membeli 77,90% saham Petrosea milik Clough International Singapore Pte Ltd. Kabarnya, pembelian sebanyak 77,90% saham Petrosea itu seharga US$ 77,90 juta-US$ 81,79 juta atau US$ 0,97-US$ 1,02 per saham. Dengan asumsi kurs Rp 11.000 per dolar AS, harga beli saham Petrosea menjadi sekitar Rp 10.670-Rp 11.220 per saham.
Transaksi saham PT Indika Energy Tbk (INDY) dan PT Petrosea Tbk (PTRO) dihentikan sementara (suspensi) oleh Otoritas Bursa Efek Indonesia (BEI) terkait akuisisi antar dua perusahaan jasa konstruksi dan tambang itu sejak sesi I perdagangan Selasa (17/2/2009).
Pada penutupan perdagangan Senin kemarin (16/2/2009) saham PTRO ada di level 6.350 per saham dan INDY Rp 1.560 per saham.(ir/qom)
Detikfinance Laba CIMB Niaga 2008 Terpangkas 55%
Jakarta - Laba bersih PT Bank CIMB Niaga Tbk (BNGA) tahun 2008 mengalami penurunan signifikan hingga 55,6% menjadi Rp 342,067 miliar dibanding tahun 2007 yang sebesar Rp 770,481 miliar.
Laba operasional (laba usaha) juga ikut turun 58% menjadi Rp 412,340 miliar dibanding tahun 2007 yang sebesar Rp 992,414 miliar.
Penurunan laba CIMB Niaga ini terutama karena naiknya beban operasional lainnya hingga Rp 2,253 triliun yang naik dibanding tahun 2007 sebesar Rp 2,137 triliun.
Laba operasional (laba usaha) juga ikut turun 58% menjadi Rp 412,340 miliar dibanding tahun 2007 yang sebesar Rp 992,414 miliar.
Penurunan laba CIMB Niaga ini terutama karena naiknya beban operasional lainnya hingga Rp 2,253 triliun yang naik dibanding tahun 2007 sebesar Rp 2,137 triliun.
UBS Bank Danamon Indo Rating: Buy Target: Rp2,775
Bank Danamon Indo Rating: Buy Target: Rp2,775 Price: Rp2,225 RIC: BDMN.JK
Prior: Sell Prior: Rp2,200 Mkt Cap: Rp11,037bn BBG: BDMN IJ
We upgrade our rating from Sell to Buy for three reasons:
1) The bank is not going in for the rights issue to fix problems with the balance sheet quality;
2) it is doing the rights issue for the right reason—to comply with the Basel 2 operational risk standards, to improve its competitive positioning relative to other big banks, and to invest in high-growth businesses; and 3) its valuation on a post-rights basis is attractive at 0.9x P/BV, reflecting a lot
Q408 results indicate strong earnings power to withstand NPL shock
The bank recorded around 4% pre-provision ROA in Q408. This should be adequate to withstand the expected increase in credit cost in 2009. We believe Danamon needs around US$400m to bring its capital adequacy ratio (CAR) to 14-15% by end-2009. This includes the capital impact from the Basel 2 implementation, and the investment in Adira and calling in its subdebt.
The valuation is also attractive on a 12m forward post-rights basis
Using a scenario of a US$400m rights issue at a 40% discount to the market, we arrive at a post-rights 12m forward valuation of 8.4x 2010E PE for Danamon. This is attractive both on a historical basis as well as a comparison basis. The stock would trade at 0.9x 2010E P/BV, which is the least expensive among the banks we cover.
Valuation: raise price target from Rp2,200 to Rp2,775
We derive our price target of Rp2,775 using the Gordon Growth model on a post-rights basis. We assume 20% return on equity (previously 17%) and 18.3% cost of equity to arrive at the target P/BV multiple. We apply the multiple to 2010 BVPS which we then discount a year to arrive at the price target.
Prior: Sell Prior: Rp2,200 Mkt Cap: Rp11,037bn BBG: BDMN IJ
We upgrade our rating from Sell to Buy for three reasons:
1) The bank is not going in for the rights issue to fix problems with the balance sheet quality;
2) it is doing the rights issue for the right reason—to comply with the Basel 2 operational risk standards, to improve its competitive positioning relative to other big banks, and to invest in high-growth businesses; and 3) its valuation on a post-rights basis is attractive at 0.9x P/BV, reflecting a lot
Q408 results indicate strong earnings power to withstand NPL shock
The bank recorded around 4% pre-provision ROA in Q408. This should be adequate to withstand the expected increase in credit cost in 2009. We believe Danamon needs around US$400m to bring its capital adequacy ratio (CAR) to 14-15% by end-2009. This includes the capital impact from the Basel 2 implementation, and the investment in Adira and calling in its subdebt.
The valuation is also attractive on a 12m forward post-rights basis
Using a scenario of a US$400m rights issue at a 40% discount to the market, we arrive at a post-rights 12m forward valuation of 8.4x 2010E PE for Danamon. This is attractive both on a historical basis as well as a comparison basis. The stock would trade at 0.9x 2010E P/BV, which is the least expensive among the banks we cover.
Valuation: raise price target from Rp2,200 to Rp2,775
We derive our price target of Rp2,775 using the Gordon Growth model on a post-rights basis. We assume 20% return on equity (previously 17%) and 18.3% cost of equity to arrive at the target P/BV multiple. We apply the multiple to 2010 BVPS which we then discount a year to arrive at the price target.
Mandiri Sekuritas Macroscope
4Q08 GDP: Global crisis hits home harder than expected
Indonesia’s economy contracted by 3.6% qoq or increased by 5.2% yoy in 4Q08, lower than our and consensus estimates of 5.5% yoy and 5.7% yoy respectively. However, upward revisions in 3Q08 have helped maintain the 2008 economic growth at 6.1% yoy.
Significant slowdown in exports brought down economic growth lower than our projection. Exports only grew by 1.8% yoy, while imports contracted 3.5% yoy in the 4Q08. Private consumption and investment growth moderated to 4.8% yoy and 9.1% yoy.
On the production side, slower economic growth was mainly driven by drop in manufacturing sector, which growth declined to 1.8% yoy in the 4Q08 (v.s 4.3% yoy in the previous quarter), followed by trade and construction (5.6% yoy and 5.7% yoy respectively). Meanwhile agriculture, mining and communication sectors grew relatively well by 4.7%, 2.1% and 32.9% yoy, which have been supported by modest domestic demand.
Lower-than-expected 4Q08 economic growth suggests that the impact of global economic slowdown have a grater impact on the economy. Thus, we expect the authority to continue to push forward its fiscal stimulus package and monetary policy loosening.
Indonesia’s economy contracted by 3.6% qoq or increased by 5.2% yoy in 4Q08, lower than our and consensus estimates of 5.5% yoy and 5.7% yoy respectively. However, upward revisions in 3Q08 have helped maintain the 2008 economic growth at 6.1% yoy.
Significant slowdown in exports brought down economic growth lower than our projection. Exports only grew by 1.8% yoy, while imports contracted 3.5% yoy in the 4Q08. Private consumption and investment growth moderated to 4.8% yoy and 9.1% yoy.
On the production side, slower economic growth was mainly driven by drop in manufacturing sector, which growth declined to 1.8% yoy in the 4Q08 (v.s 4.3% yoy in the previous quarter), followed by trade and construction (5.6% yoy and 5.7% yoy respectively). Meanwhile agriculture, mining and communication sectors grew relatively well by 4.7%, 2.1% and 32.9% yoy, which have been supported by modest domestic demand.
Lower-than-expected 4Q08 economic growth suggests that the impact of global economic slowdown have a grater impact on the economy. Thus, we expect the authority to continue to push forward its fiscal stimulus package and monetary policy loosening.
JP Morgan Astra International TP; idr7,700
January 4W sales down 20% M/M, worse than what recent media reports indicated
Downward pressure intact; we stay UW: On February 11, 2009,
ASII’s stock price fell over 6% on news (Bloomberg) that vehicle sales in January were 34,000 units. With actual figures being lower, we expect negative reaction to this data. Our FY09E EPS for Astra is 15% below the consensus estimate; we expect downward estimate revisions after a potentially weak sales release. We see this as a key negative driver. Hence, we reiterate our UW rating on Astra.
We prefer UNTR within the group: Our Dec-09 PT of Rp7,700 for Astra is in line with its current book value, and based on 6x FY09E EPS, which is in line with previous trough values. Value accruing from Astra’s subsidiaries (which have recently outperformed the parent) is a risk to our view, but investors could look at UNTR directly to play this angle.
Downward pressure intact; we stay UW: On February 11, 2009,
ASII’s stock price fell over 6% on news (Bloomberg) that vehicle sales in January were 34,000 units. With actual figures being lower, we expect negative reaction to this data. Our FY09E EPS for Astra is 15% below the consensus estimate; we expect downward estimate revisions after a potentially weak sales release. We see this as a key negative driver. Hence, we reiterate our UW rating on Astra.
We prefer UNTR within the group: Our Dec-09 PT of Rp7,700 for Astra is in line with its current book value, and based on 6x FY09E EPS, which is in line with previous trough values. Value accruing from Astra’s subsidiaries (which have recently outperformed the parent) is a risk to our view, but investors could look at UNTR directly to play this angle.
CLSA Indo Tambang (ITMG IJ), Healthy Choice
Research Today: Indo Tambang (ITMG IJ), healthy choice
Our resource analyst Olie looked at Indo Tambang Raya (ITMG IJ) and believes that it is a healthy choice. To be on the conservative side, we cut earnings forecast by 20%and 17% in 2009 and 2010 respectively, taking into account higher cost assumptions. We have raised cost assumptions after we learn that ITMG will re-start mining in Kitadin using own mining fleet rather than contractors. BUT ITMG is our top pick in the coal space. We have a BUY rating with TP of Rp13,900 (lowered from previously Rp16,600).
Reasons why ITMG is good for your health:
Dividend play. ITMG has a policy to distribute 60%, of earnings as dividend. Parent Banpu relies on dividend from ITMG. Expect 15% yield this year.
Corp governance: parent ranks near top of our CG survey.
Defensive nature: (1) portion of contracted tonnage, around 54% now, at around US$80/t (2) strong cash flows (3) strong cash balance.
Lower fuel cost: ITMG would be key beneficiary. Expect total cash cost, incl. royalty, to fall from US$53/t in 08 to US$48/t this year.
Upward adjustment on reserves? ITMG uses US$45/t for reserve statement. This is conservative. ITMG has total resource of 1.5bn tonnes and portion of this can be converted into reserves.
Key catalyst for the stock: (1) dividend announcement (2) fixing the price of remaining tonnage (3) result announcement (4) achieving production assumptions (5) new reserve estimates, possibly announced end of 1Q09.
Our resource analyst Olie looked at Indo Tambang Raya (ITMG IJ) and believes that it is a healthy choice. To be on the conservative side, we cut earnings forecast by 20%and 17% in 2009 and 2010 respectively, taking into account higher cost assumptions. We have raised cost assumptions after we learn that ITMG will re-start mining in Kitadin using own mining fleet rather than contractors. BUT ITMG is our top pick in the coal space. We have a BUY rating with TP of Rp13,900 (lowered from previously Rp16,600).
Reasons why ITMG is good for your health:
Dividend play. ITMG has a policy to distribute 60%, of earnings as dividend. Parent Banpu relies on dividend from ITMG. Expect 15% yield this year.
Corp governance: parent ranks near top of our CG survey.
Defensive nature: (1) portion of contracted tonnage, around 54% now, at around US$80/t (2) strong cash flows (3) strong cash balance.
Lower fuel cost: ITMG would be key beneficiary. Expect total cash cost, incl. royalty, to fall from US$53/t in 08 to US$48/t this year.
Upward adjustment on reserves? ITMG uses US$45/t for reserve statement. This is conservative. ITMG has total resource of 1.5bn tonnes and portion of this can be converted into reserves.
Key catalyst for the stock: (1) dividend announcement (2) fixing the price of remaining tonnage (3) result announcement (4) achieving production assumptions (5) new reserve estimates, possibly announced end of 1Q09.