Weekly Coal NEWC Index
30-Jan-09 83.15
06-Feb-09 78.17
13-Feb-09 80.28
20-Feb-09 76.34
27-Feb-09 65.32
Monthly Coal NEWC Index
Nov-2008 91.36
Dec-2008 78.18
Jan-2009 82.69
Feb-2009 75.03
Sabtu, 28 Februari 2009
Reuters Europe shares fall; banks and pharmas slide
Fri Feb 27, 2009 12:48pm EST
* FTSEurofirst 300 closes 1.8 pct lower
* Index falls 9.7 pct in February
* Drugmakers fall on U.S. budget worry
* Lloyds leads British banks lower
By Brian Gorman
LONDON, Feb 27 (Reuters) - European shares fell on Friday as the U.S. government struck a deal to take a sizeable stake in Citigroup (C.N), the U.S. budget plans raised worries over drugmaker earnings and a big loss at Lloyds hit British banks.
The FTSEurofirst 300 .FTEU3 index of top European shares fell 1.8 percent to 719.4 points.
Over the week, the index slipped 2.2 percent, and it fell 9.7 percent in the month of February, on continued worries over the global slowdown and the crisis in the banking system.
"Citigroup was the main thing today," said Howard Wheeldon, strategist at BGC Partners in London. "Even though everybody knew it's been coming for a while." "It's a creeping step towards full nationalisation," he said.
The U.S. government will boost its stake in Citigroup Inc (C.N) to as much as 36 percent, bolstering the banking giant's capital base in one of the most dramatic efforts yet to prop up the ailing banking industry. Citigroup reported a full-year loss of $27.7 billion. Its shares fell more than 30 percent.
The STOXX 600 .STOXX, a broader index of European shares, fell 1.8 percent, with banks taking the most points off the index.
UK banks were worst hit, led by Lloyds Banking Group (LLOY.L), which closed 22.3 percent lower after it unveiled a big loss for 2008 and said it had not yet finalised details of its plan to put billions of pounds of assets into a UK government-backed insurance scheme. Barclays (BARC.L) tumbled 17.4 percent, HSBC (HSBA.L) fell 6.8 percent, ahead of results on Monday. more...
* FTSEurofirst 300 closes 1.8 pct lower
* Index falls 9.7 pct in February
* Drugmakers fall on U.S. budget worry
* Lloyds leads British banks lower
By Brian Gorman
LONDON, Feb 27 (Reuters) - European shares fell on Friday as the U.S. government struck a deal to take a sizeable stake in Citigroup (C.N), the U.S. budget plans raised worries over drugmaker earnings and a big loss at Lloyds hit British banks.
The FTSEurofirst 300 .FTEU3 index of top European shares fell 1.8 percent to 719.4 points.
Over the week, the index slipped 2.2 percent, and it fell 9.7 percent in the month of February, on continued worries over the global slowdown and the crisis in the banking system.
"Citigroup was the main thing today," said Howard Wheeldon, strategist at BGC Partners in London. "Even though everybody knew it's been coming for a while." "It's a creeping step towards full nationalisation," he said.
The U.S. government will boost its stake in Citigroup Inc (C.N) to as much as 36 percent, bolstering the banking giant's capital base in one of the most dramatic efforts yet to prop up the ailing banking industry. Citigroup reported a full-year loss of $27.7 billion. Its shares fell more than 30 percent.
The STOXX 600 .STOXX, a broader index of European shares, fell 1.8 percent, with banks taking the most points off the index.
UK banks were worst hit, led by Lloyds Banking Group (LLOY.L), which closed 22.3 percent lower after it unveiled a big loss for 2008 and said it had not yet finalised details of its plan to put billions of pounds of assets into a UK government-backed insurance scheme. Barclays (BARC.L) tumbled 17.4 percent, HSBC (HSBA.L) fell 6.8 percent, ahead of results on Monday. more...
Reuters Bank fear sends Standard and Poor to worst-ever start to a year
Friday February 27, 2009, 5:16 pm EST
NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. stocks fell and the S&P 500 marked its worst-ever start to a year on Friday, after the government said it will take a large stake in Citigroup's common shares, fanning fears it will increase its role in other major banks.
The decline closed out a grim month on Wall Street, with the Dow industrials hitting the lowest level since May 1997 as the blue-chip index fell for a sixth straight month.
Healthcare and drug companies, such as Merck & Co (NYSE:MRK - News) and Johnson & Johnson Inc (NYSE:JNJ - News), fell for a second day on Friday on worries that U.S. President Barack Obama's budget proposal will strangle profits as the administration tries to rein in healthcare costs.
Data showing the U.S. economy shrank at an annual rate of 6.2 percent last quarter also weighed on the market.
Citigroup (NYSE:C - News) shares tumbled 39 percent after the government said it will convert up to $25 billion in the bank's preferred shares to common stock in a move that could dilute existing shareholders' ownership by 74 percent. The S&P financial index (^GSPF - News) sank 8.1 percent.
"There are continued beliefs that Citibank is not the last bank that the government will take a large stake in," said William Lefkowitz, options strategist at brokerage firm vFinance Investments in New York.
"Some people believe that if the government takes a 30 to 40 percent stake, which they did in Citibank, that would be considered some form of nationalization," he said. more...
Bloomberg U.S. Economy: GDP Shrinks 6.2%, More Than Estimated
Feb. 27 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. economic contraction in the fourth quarter was deeper than the government first estimated, with other reports today signaling little prospect of relief until at least the middle of 2009.
Gross domestic product shrank at a 6.2 percent annual pace from October through December, the most since 1982, the Commerce Department said today in Washington. Separate figures showed consumer sentiment and business activity dropped this month.
“There has been no evidence that the pace of decline is slowing at all,” Bill Cheney, chief economist at John Hancock Financial Services Inc. in Boston, said in an interview with Bloomberg Television. President Barack Obama’s $787 billion stimulus package will “kick in” in mid-2009 at the earliest, he said.
Consumer spending, which slid the most in almost three decades last quarter, is unlikely to turn around as companies from General Motors Corp. to JPMorgan Chase & Co. cut payrolls. The credit crunch shows no sign of ending, with the government today forced to come to the rescue of Citigroup Inc. for a third time in five months after mounting losses at the lender.
Stocks declined for the ninth time in 10 days, with the Standard & Poor’s 500 Stock Index falling 2.4 percent to close at 735.09. in New York. Treasuries fell for a fourth day amid concern over the ballooning cost of federal efforts to halt the crisis.
Slump Deepens
The Institute for Supply Management-Chicago Inc.’s barometer showed business activity contracted in February for a fifth consecutive month, while the Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment index fell for the first time since November.
U.S. GDP was previously estimated to have declined by 3.8 percent last quarter. The 2.4 percentage-point revision was almost five times as large as the average adjustment, the Commerce Department said. The median forecast of 74 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News was for a 5.4 percent decline. more...
Gross domestic product shrank at a 6.2 percent annual pace from October through December, the most since 1982, the Commerce Department said today in Washington. Separate figures showed consumer sentiment and business activity dropped this month.
“There has been no evidence that the pace of decline is slowing at all,” Bill Cheney, chief economist at John Hancock Financial Services Inc. in Boston, said in an interview with Bloomberg Television. President Barack Obama’s $787 billion stimulus package will “kick in” in mid-2009 at the earliest, he said.
Consumer spending, which slid the most in almost three decades last quarter, is unlikely to turn around as companies from General Motors Corp. to JPMorgan Chase & Co. cut payrolls. The credit crunch shows no sign of ending, with the government today forced to come to the rescue of Citigroup Inc. for a third time in five months after mounting losses at the lender.
Stocks declined for the ninth time in 10 days, with the Standard & Poor’s 500 Stock Index falling 2.4 percent to close at 735.09. in New York. Treasuries fell for a fourth day amid concern over the ballooning cost of federal efforts to halt the crisis.
Slump Deepens
The Institute for Supply Management-Chicago Inc.’s barometer showed business activity contracted in February for a fifth consecutive month, while the Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment index fell for the first time since November.
U.S. GDP was previously estimated to have declined by 3.8 percent last quarter. The 2.4 percentage-point revision was almost five times as large as the average adjustment, the Commerce Department said. The median forecast of 74 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News was for a 5.4 percent decline. more...
Reuters Oil pulled lower by dismal U.S. GDP data
Fri Feb 27, 2009 3:37pm EST
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Oil prices fell 1 percent on Friday, pulled lower by U.S. data showing the economy of the world's largest energy consumer shrank more than expected in the final three months of 2008.
U.S. crude fell 46 cents to settle at $44.76 a barrel after touching a session low of $42.55, reversing a three-day rally. London Brent crude fell 16 cents to $46.35 a barrel.
The losses came after government data showed U.S. gross domestic product shrank 6.2 percent in the fourth quarter versus a year earlier, marking the deepest slide since 1982 and outpacing analyst forecasts for a 5.4 percent contraction.
"Oil markets are reverting back to economic concerns," said Tom Bentz, AN analyst at BNP Commodity Futures Inc.
Global economic weakness has driven a slump of more than $100 in crude prices since July's peaks as the economic crisis cuts into fuel demand from businesses and consumers.
Adding downward pressure to oil prices on Friday, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said that American energy demand fell last year to the lowest level in a decade. more...
Jumat, 27 Februari 2009
Bloomberg Citigroup to Be Asked by U.S. to Get Private Capital
Feb. 27 (Bloomberg) -- The Obama administration will require Citigroup Inc. to raise private capital and make changes to its board of directors as part of an effort to strengthen the bank, according to people familiar with the matter.
The plan, which may be announced as soon as today, will involve the Treasury Department converting preferred shares into common stock. The government doesn’t immediately intend to provide additional money after channeling $45 billion to the New York-based company last year, the people said.
“This gradual step by step process doesn’t work, or has not worked so far,” said Marino Valensise, chief investment officer of London-based Baring Asset Management Ltd., who helps oversee about $45 billion for clients.
Citigroup Chief Executive Officer Vikram Pandit is trying to bolster confidence after his bank’s stock price sank below $2 last week for the first time in 18 years. The government is supporting the firm because of concern its failure might roil already weak global markets.
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said Feb. 25 he wants to avoid nationalizing Citigroup and other large banks in a way that would wipe out shareholders and leave the U.S. in full control. Bernanke said the government might end up owning a “substantial minority” of the bank. more...
Bapepam Tunda Pembahasan BUMI
Jakarta - Badan Pengawas Pasar Modal & Lembaga Keuangan (Bapepam-LK) menunda pembahasan seputar akuisisi Rp 6,191 triliun PT Bumi Resources Tbk (BUMI) dengan Bursa Efek Indonesia (BEI) hingga waktu yang belum pasti.
"Rencana pembahasan soal BUMI dengan BEI tidak jadi dilakukan pekan ini," ujar Ketua Bapepam-LK, Fuad Rahmany di kantornya, Lapangan Banteng, Jakarta, Jumat (27/2/2009).
Fuad mengatakan, semula rencana pembahasan dijadwalkan akan dilakukan pekan ini. Namun rencana tersebut ditunda tanpa alasan yang jelas.
"Kemarin kita sibuk ngurusin masalah lain. Jadi tidak jadi kita lakukan," ujarnya. Sayangnya, ia juga belum bisa memberikan kepastian kapan pembahasan akan dilakukan. "Bisa pekan depan. Tapi belum pasti," ujarnya.
Lambatnya proses pemeriksaan yang dilakukan Bapepam atas 3 akuisisi BUMI senilai Rp 6,191 triliun menimbulkan berbagai spekulasi di kalangan pelaku pasar. more...
CNBC DoCoMo Halts BlackBerry Bold Sales Due to Overheating
Topics:Technology
Sectors:Telecommunications | Technology
Companies:Research in Motion Limited
NTT DoCoMo, Japan's biggest mobile phone operator, said on Friday it has halted sales of Research In Motion's BlackBerry Bold because the phone can overheat while the battery is being recharged.DoCoMo said it has sold about 4,000 high-end Bold phones, and about 30 users have complained the phone's keyboard area had heated up.
The company said it has received no reports of users getting burned or of phones catching on fire.
"This issue appears to be specifically limited to the BlackBerry Bold devices sold in Japan since last week and sales of BlackBerry Bold devices in other countries are unaffected by this matter," RIM [RIMM 39.54 -1.63 (-3.96%) ] said in a statement.RIM said it had ruled out a battery problem, but said the root cause is still being investigated.
NTT DoCoMo began selling the product in Japan last week and the companies hope to renew sales in Japan soon, RIM said.
Laba Astra International 2008 Menanjak 41%
Jakarta - Perusahaan multi sektor, PT Astra International Tbk (ASII) membukukan laba bersih konsolidasi di tahun 2008 sebesar Rp 9,191 triliun yang melonjak 41% dibanding tahun 2007 yang sebesar Rp 6,519 triliun. Pendapatan per saham juga naik 41% menjadi Rp 2.270.
Pendapatan bersih Astra tahun 2008 mencapai Rp 97,064 triliun, meningkat 38% dibandingkan dengan Rp 70,183 triliun pada tahun 2007. Laba usaha naik 40%, yaitu dari Rp 8,501 triliun menjadi Rp 11,876 triliun.
"Grup Astra membukukan kinerja yang sangat baik di tahun 2008, meski pada kuartal terakhir pasar mengalami penurunan," kata Presiden Direktur Astra Michael D. Ruslim dalam siaran pers, Jumat (27/2/2008). more...
Pendapatan bersih Astra tahun 2008 mencapai Rp 97,064 triliun, meningkat 38% dibandingkan dengan Rp 70,183 triliun pada tahun 2007. Laba usaha naik 40%, yaitu dari Rp 8,501 triliun menjadi Rp 11,876 triliun.
"Grup Astra membukukan kinerja yang sangat baik di tahun 2008, meski pada kuartal terakhir pasar mengalami penurunan," kata Presiden Direktur Astra Michael D. Ruslim dalam siaran pers, Jumat (27/2/2008). more...
Astra International akan Bagikan Dividen Final Rp 570
Jakarta - PT Astra International Tbk (ASII) berencana membagikan dividen final dari pencapaian laba bersih tahun 2008. Dividen final itu sebesar Rp 570 per saham yang akan dimintakan persetujuan dalam Rapat Umum Pemegang Saham pada 27 Mei 2009.
Sepanjang tahun 2008, Astra telah membagikan dividen interim sebesar Rp 300 per saham yang telah dibayar pada 14 November 2008. "Apabila disetujui, total dividen menjadi sebesar Rp 870 per lembar saham yang naik dibanding 2007 sebesar Rp 644 per saham atau mengalami kenaikan sebesar 35%," kata Chief of Corporate Communication, Arief Istanto dalam siaran pers, Jumat (27/2/2009).
Saham Astra International mayoritas dimiliki oleh Jardine Cycle & Carriage Limited sebesar 50,09%. Sisanya dimiliki oleh publik. Sepanjang 2008 Astra membukukan laba bersih konsolidasi Rp 9,191 triliun yang melonjak 41% dibanding tahun 2007 yang sebesar Rp 6,519 triliun. Pendapatan per saham juga naik 41% menjadi Rp 2.270.
Pendapatan bersih Astra tahun 2008 mencapai Rp 97,064 triliun, meningkat 38% dibandingkan dengan Rp 70,183 triliun pada tahun 2007. Laba usaha naik 40%, yaitu dari Rp 8,501 triliun menjadi Rp 11,876 triliun.(ir/qom)
Indika Wajib Tender Offer Saham Publik Petrosea
Jakarta - Bursa Efek Indonesia (BEI) memastikan PT Indika Energy Tbk (INDY) sebagai pengendali baru PT Petrosea Tbk (PTRO) wajib melakukan tender offer atas saham-saham publik yang masih beredar.
"Mereka wajib tender offer," tegas Direktur Utama BEI, Erry Firmansyah di gedung Bapepam-LK, Lapangan Banteng, Jakarta, Jumat (27/2/2009). Kemarin, Kamis (26/2/2009) INDY telah secara resmi mengumumkan akan mengambil alih 81,95% saham Clough International di PTRO senilai US$ 83,8 juta. Penandatanganan kerjasama telah dilakukan kemarin sore. "Finalisasi transaksi dan pembayaran rencananya dilakukan sekitar Mei atau Juni 2009," ujar Investor Relations INDY, Retina Rosabai saat dihubungi detikFinance.
Sayangnya, Retina belum dapat memastikan kapan tender offer atas saham publik PTRO akan digelar. Namun sebagaimana dikatakan Erry, INDY wajib melakukan tender offer. Erry juga mengatakan tidak akan memberikan suspensi kepada INDY maupun PTRO pasca pengambilalihan tersebut. "Kan dia (INDY) sudah umumkan kalau dia akan ambil alih PTRO. Jadi tidak perlu lagi disuspensi," ujar Erry. (dro/qom)
BEI Dapat Mandat Tunjuk Penilai Independen BUMI
Jakarta - Bursa Efek Indonesia (BEI) telah mendapat mandat dari Badan Pengawas Pasar Modal & Lembaga Keuangan (Bapepam-LK) untuk menunjuk tim penilai independen atas 3 akuisisi PT Bumi Resources Tbk (BUMI) senilai Rp 6,191 triliun.
"Ini sudah dilimpahkan surat penugasan mencari penilai independen BUMI," ujar Direktur Utama BEI Erry Firmansyah di gedung Bapepam-LK, Lapangan Banteng, Jakarta, Jumat (27/2/2009). Erry mengatakan dalam waktu dekat, BEI akan segera melaksanakan mandat yang baru saja diterimanya. Namun Erry belum dapat memastikan apakah akan menunjuk satu penilai independen atau lebih.
"Ini sudah disuruh mulai mencari. Bisa lokal bisa asing. Segera kita putuskan. Jumlahnya juga belum tahu," ujar Erry. BUMI telah mengakuisisi PT Fajar Bumi Sakti, PT Pendopo Coal dan Zurich Asset Investment (pengendali PT Darma Henwa Tbk/DEWA) senilai Rp 6,191 triliun. Dalam keterangan yang diumumkan sebelumnya, BUMI menunjuk Yanuar Bey dan Rekan sebagai tim penilai independen.
Namun Bapepam menilai perlu adanya suatu penilaian yang dilakukan oleh tim yang ditunjuk otoritas pasar modal. Bapepam menduga BUMI melakukan pelanggaran atas serangkaian aksi akuisisi tersebut.(dro/ir)
Bloomberg Astra's 2008 Profit Rises 41% After Car Sales Reached a Record
Astra's 2008 Profit Rises 41% After Car Sales Reached a Record
2009-02-27 09:08:38.283 GMT
By Widya Utami
Feb. 27 (Bloomberg) -- PT Astra International, Indonesia's biggest publicly traded company by sales, said profit last year rose 41 percent after car and motorcycle sales reached a record.
Net income at the company, which sells cars made by Toyota Motor Corp. and motorcycles by Honda Motor Co., rose to 9.19 trillion rupiah ($767 million), from 6.52 trillion rupiah a year earlier, the Jakarta-based company said in a statement to the Indonesia Stock Exchange today. Sales rose 38 percent to 97.06 trillion rupiah.
Link to Company News:{ASII IJ CN }
Link to Company News:{JCNC SP CN }
For Related News and Information:
Top Stories:{TOP}
To contact the reporter on this story:
Widya Utami in Jakarta at +62-21-2355-3027 or
wutami@bloomberg.net
2009-02-27 09:08:38.283 GMT
By Widya Utami
Feb. 27 (Bloomberg) -- PT Astra International, Indonesia's biggest publicly traded company by sales, said profit last year rose 41 percent after car and motorcycle sales reached a record.
Net income at the company, which sells cars made by Toyota Motor Corp. and motorcycles by Honda Motor Co., rose to 9.19 trillion rupiah ($767 million), from 6.52 trillion rupiah a year earlier, the Jakarta-based company said in a statement to the Indonesia Stock Exchange today. Sales rose 38 percent to 97.06 trillion rupiah.
Link to Company News:{ASII IJ
Link to Company News:{JCNC SP
For Related News and Information:
Top Stories:{TOP
To contact the reporter on this story:
Widya Utami in Jakarta at +62-21-2355-3027 or
wutami@bloomberg.net
Reuters Asian shares fall in end to difficult month
Friday February 27, 2009, 3:28 am EST
HONG KONG (Reuters) - Asian shares fell on Friday, ending a tough month marked by nagging fears about the world economy and the financial system, though Tokyo stocks rose and safety plays such as the dollar pared recent gains.
Stock market gains at the start of the year unraveled further in February and the MSCI index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan headed for a 6 percent monthly fall, having hit at one point their lowest since late November.
European shares were set to open sharply lower on Friday, with a retreat in commodity prices such as gold and oil seen hitting some energy-related firms and miners.
Risk aversion in February was reflected in the surge of the dollar, which despite Friday's dip, is on track to its biggest monthly gain against the yen since 1995. Gold had rallied, at one point breaching past the $1,000 an ounce barrier to near a March 2008 record before retreating some.
Grim economic data across Asia, including double-digit export declines and shrinking economic output, are also pummeling currencies such as the South Korean won, which on Friday hit an 11-year low against the dollar.
"The drop in exports in the region continues to take a terrible toll on GDP and the region's economies will continue to decelerate for some months to come," said Calyon in a note to clients on Friday. "The pressure on Asian currencies remains broad based," it added.
The MSCI index of Asia-Pacific stocks outside Japan fell 0.9 percent by 2:10 a.m. EST, losing 13 percent so far this year to reflect pessimism about the U.S. and world economy. more...
HONG KONG (Reuters) - Asian shares fell on Friday, ending a tough month marked by nagging fears about the world economy and the financial system, though Tokyo stocks rose and safety plays such as the dollar pared recent gains.
Stock market gains at the start of the year unraveled further in February and the MSCI index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan headed for a 6 percent monthly fall, having hit at one point their lowest since late November.
European shares were set to open sharply lower on Friday, with a retreat in commodity prices such as gold and oil seen hitting some energy-related firms and miners.
Risk aversion in February was reflected in the surge of the dollar, which despite Friday's dip, is on track to its biggest monthly gain against the yen since 1995. Gold had rallied, at one point breaching past the $1,000 an ounce barrier to near a March 2008 record before retreating some.
Grim economic data across Asia, including double-digit export declines and shrinking economic output, are also pummeling currencies such as the South Korean won, which on Friday hit an 11-year low against the dollar.
"The drop in exports in the region continues to take a terrible toll on GDP and the region's economies will continue to decelerate for some months to come," said Calyon in a note to clients on Friday. "The pressure on Asian currencies remains broad based," it added.
The MSCI index of Asia-Pacific stocks outside Japan fell 0.9 percent by 2:10 a.m. EST, losing 13 percent so far this year to reflect pessimism about the U.S. and world economy. more...
9 Emiten Gelar Lanjutan Buy Back Rp 3 Triliun
Jakarta - Sebanyak 9 emiten telah menyatakan akan mengikuti program pembelian kembali saham (buy back) tahap dua yang digelar untuk periode Januari hingga Mei 2009. Total dana yang disediakan mencapai Rp 3,006 triliun.
"9 emiten sudah mendaftar perpanjangan pelaksanaan buy back," ujar Kabiro Penilaian Keuangan Perusahaan Sektor Riil Bapepam-LK, Anis Baridwan di kantornya, Lapangan Banteng, Jakarta, Jumat (27/2/2009).
Emiten-emiten tersebut adalah PT Adhi Karya Tbk (ADHI), PT Jaya Real Property Tbk (JRPT), PT Bakrieland Development Tbk (ELTY), PT Media Nusantara Citra Tbk (MNCN), PT Perdana Karya Perkasa Tbk (PKPK), PT PP London Sumatera Tbk (LSIP), PT Jasuindo Tiga Perkasa Tbk (JTPE), PT Kalbe Farma Tbk (KLBF) dan PT Wijaya Karya Tbk (WIKA).
"Semuanya yang sudah ikut program buy back tahap I. Namun ada yang belum merealisasikan sama sekali, ada juga yang baru realisasi sedikit," ujar Anis.
Pada program buy back tahap dua ini, dana yang disediakan 9 emiten tersebut sebesar Rp 3,006 triliun. Namun yang sudah direalisasikan hanya sebesar Rp 7,778 miliar.
Artinya, total realisasi buy back tahap dua baru sebesar 0,25% dari dana yang disediakan. Realisasi senilai Rp 7,778 miliar tersebut baru dilakukan oleh ADHI Rp 1,045 miliar, JRPT Rp 3,92 miliar dan JPTE Rp 2,813 miliar.
Sisa dana yang belum direalisasikan sebesar Rp 2,998 triliun.(dro/ir)
"9 emiten sudah mendaftar perpanjangan pelaksanaan buy back," ujar Kabiro Penilaian Keuangan Perusahaan Sektor Riil Bapepam-LK, Anis Baridwan di kantornya, Lapangan Banteng, Jakarta, Jumat (27/2/2009).
Emiten-emiten tersebut adalah PT Adhi Karya Tbk (ADHI), PT Jaya Real Property Tbk (JRPT), PT Bakrieland Development Tbk (ELTY), PT Media Nusantara Citra Tbk (MNCN), PT Perdana Karya Perkasa Tbk (PKPK), PT PP London Sumatera Tbk (LSIP), PT Jasuindo Tiga Perkasa Tbk (JTPE), PT Kalbe Farma Tbk (KLBF) dan PT Wijaya Karya Tbk (WIKA).
"Semuanya yang sudah ikut program buy back tahap I. Namun ada yang belum merealisasikan sama sekali, ada juga yang baru realisasi sedikit," ujar Anis.
Pada program buy back tahap dua ini, dana yang disediakan 9 emiten tersebut sebesar Rp 3,006 triliun. Namun yang sudah direalisasikan hanya sebesar Rp 7,778 miliar.
Artinya, total realisasi buy back tahap dua baru sebesar 0,25% dari dana yang disediakan. Realisasi senilai Rp 7,778 miliar tersebut baru dilakukan oleh ADHI Rp 1,045 miliar, JRPT Rp 3,92 miliar dan JPTE Rp 2,813 miliar.
Sisa dana yang belum direalisasikan sebesar Rp 2,998 triliun.(dro/ir)
Konsumsi Gas Domestik Terus Meningkat
Jumat, 27/02/2009 14:36 WIB
Jakarta - Penggunaan gas bumi oleh domestik terus meningkat dari tahun ke tahun. Jika pada tahun 2000 hanya 40% gas yang dikonsumsi dalam negeri, pada saat ini tercatat 63% gas bumi di Indonesia digunakan untuk domestik.
Hal ini disampaikan Menteri ESDM Purnomo Yusgiantoro dalam Penyerahan Sertifikat Hak Khusus Pengangkutan dan niaga Gas Bumi Melalui pipa pada ruas transmisi dan wilayah jaringan distribusi gas bumi, di Gedung BPH Migas, Jalan Kapten Tendean, Jakarta, Jumat (27/2/2009)
"Awal tahun 2000 hanya 40% dari total produksi gas yang dipakai di dalam negeri. Namun saat ini dari produksi gas bumi kita yang sekitar 7,5 mmscfd, 63% sudah masuk ke domestik, sisanya diekspor," jelasnya
Menurut Purnomo ekspor tersebut tetap dilakukan karena pemerintah telah terlanjur berkomitmen dengan pihak asing.
"Ekspor tersebut dilakukan karena kita sudah berkomitmen dengan tradisional buyer kita Korea, Jepang dan taiwan. kontrak yang sudah ditandatangani kan tidak mungkin kita lakukan pemutusan gas secara drastis," ungkapnya. more...
CIMB Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam Company update - Reserve booster
Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam
Company update - Reserve booster - by Rania Rahmundita
(PTBA IJ / PTBA.JK, OUTPERFORM - Maintained, Rp7,450 - Tgt. Rp9,100, Basic Resources)
We expect PTBA's FY08 revenue and operating profit to meet our current estimates but there could be one-off, non-recurring items that could distort reported net profit. FY09 operational improvement should remain robust. New reserve estimation is underway and there could be a sizable upgrade to reserve estimates. We also believe planned acquisitions this year would be value-accretive and help diversify long-term risks related to production growth. Maintain Outperform. Our DCF target price has been raised to Rp9,100 from Rp8,100 (WACC 14-18%) on upside to life of mine and a bigger cash position.
Company update - Reserve booster - by Rania Rahmundita
(PTBA IJ / PTBA.JK, OUTPERFORM - Maintained, Rp7,450 - Tgt. Rp9,100, Basic Resources)
We expect PTBA's FY08 revenue and operating profit to meet our current estimates but there could be one-off, non-recurring items that could distort reported net profit. FY09 operational improvement should remain robust. New reserve estimation is underway and there could be a sizable upgrade to reserve estimates. We also believe planned acquisitions this year would be value-accretive and help diversify long-term risks related to production growth. Maintain Outperform. Our DCF target price has been raised to Rp9,100 from Rp8,100 (WACC 14-18%) on upside to life of mine and a bigger cash position.
CNBC Citi, US Reach Deal to Convert Government Stake
By: CNBC.com | 26 Feb 2009 | 11:44 PM ETCitigroup and the U.S. have reached a deal to give the government a bigger stake in the troubled banking giant, by converting its preferential shares to common stock, a Treasury official tells CNBC.The Treasury official said the government will be offered the lowest price given to any private investor, to convert preferred shares into common equity. The Treasury will match the private investors' conversions dollar-for-dollar up to $25 billion. It currently holds about $45 billion worth of preferred stock purchased through two separate capital injections.
Private investors that have bought preferred shares of Citigroup include the Government of Singapore Investment Corp., the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority and the Kuwait Investment Authority.Citi already has agreement from some private investors to convert preferred shares into common, according to one person familiar with the transaction, but it's unclear if the amount is equal to the full $25 billion of preferred that the government is willing to convert on a matching basis with private investors.
The conversion should see the Treasury's Citi stake rise to between 30 to 40 percent. The government is also demanding a boardroom shakeup as part of the agreement. The exact details of this shakeup are not known. However, CEO Vikram Pandit is expected to keep his job under the agreement.
The deal, expected to be formally announced later Friday, also stipulates that Citigroup must undergo a bank stress test. Other key details of the Citigroup-U.S. pact remain unclear.
As previously discussed -- when comparing Citigroup's market capitalization with the number of preferred shares the government currently owns -- if these shares were converted right now to common stock, they would worth more than 100 percent of Citi's total market capitalization.
Any additional money that Citi receives from the government automatically means a further stock dilution. While Obama Administration officials say this isn't nationalization, markets may interpret the situation differently and see it as de facto nationalization.
The agreement is likely to make the U.S. government the biggest shareholder of Citigroup, owning a majority of its stock. This is de facto government ownership, or nationalization.
o Get After-Hour Quotes for Citigroup
UBS Bumi Resources - Key takeaways from UBS conference call
Key takeaways from UBS conference call
Acquisitions and balance sheet
Management stated that the recent acquisitions are not material, as they fall within Bapepam’s (Indonesian financial regulator) requirements; less than 10% of revenue and less than 20% of equity. Management said that the target companies have no ownership affiliation with Bumi Resources or Bakrie Brothers, but stopped short of denying any affiliation with the Bakrie family. Management expects debt to peak at US$1.3bn in 2008.
Operational outlook
Management is guiding for net earnings 8% above consensus and 35% above our estimate in 2008, which we attribute to a lower-than-expected effective corporate tax rate of 30%. Management highlights its expectation of a 10% increase in production and sales volumes in 2009 with a 15% reduction in cash costs. This should result in a 20% increase in EBITDA, by management’s estimates.
Reiterate Buy rating but expect volatility
We maintain our Buy rating on the stock, which has declined 91% since its peak in June 2008, but highlight the potential for non-fundamental share price volatility from the current restructuring. We believe the current risk and volatility levels will fall following the completion of the ownership restructuring.
Valuation: Rp1,600 12-month price target
Our 2009 earnings estimate is 15% below consensus. Our Rp1,600 12-month price target is based on a 2009E PE of 7.5x and a WACC of 15%.
Associated Press Oil dips below $45 on profit-taking after recent rally on signs of renewed US crude demand
SINGAPORE (AP) -- Oil prices fell back modestly in Asia Friday as traders took profits after signs of improving U.S. crude demand have sparked a 30 percent rally in the last week or so.Benchmark crude for April delivery fell 61 cents to $44.61 a barrel by midday in Singapore on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract jumped $2.72 on Thursday to settle at $45.22.
Oil prices have rebounded from below $35 last week on early evidence that the drop in U.S. crude demand may be stabilizing. Government data earlier this week showed that gasoline demand was up 1.7 percent from the same period last year.
And the U.S. Energy Department on Wednesday said crude inventories rose 700,000 barrels for the week ended Feb. 20, less than the 3.5 million barrel build-up analysts expected. While inventories rose, the trend appears to be slowing. Last week the government reported inventories fell slightly. more...
Bloomberg China National Petroleum Corp., the biggest Chinese oil company, agreed to buy Canada's Verenex Energy Inc.
By Joe Carroll
Feb. 26 (Bloomberg) -- China National Petroleum Corp., the biggest Chinese oil company, agreed to buy Canada's Verenex Energy Inc. for about C$499 million ($400 million) to expand in Libya, home to Africa's largest crude reserves. Beijing-based China National agreed on Feb. 24 to buy the Canadian company for C$10 a share in cash, according to a statement today from Calgary-based Verenex. The company said its
largest shareholder, Vermilion Resources Ltd., supports the sale. Verenex put itself up for sale in November after four straight years of losses. The takeover needs approval from Libyan officials under terms of an exploration and production accord
with the state-owned oil company, Verenex said. China National, which began exploring for oil in Libya in 2005, has the right to match any rival offer, and Verenex agreed to pay a C$15 million breakup fee if the company scuttles the
deal.
Verenex surged C$1.72, or 22 percent, to C$9.52 at 10:32 a.m. on the Toronto Stock Exchange after earlier increasing as much as 24 percent, the biggest intraday gain since Nov. 28. The shares have more than doubled in value since the company opened
its books to potential suitors on Nov. 26. Libya has 41.5 billion barrels of crude reserves, about 35 percent of the available oil on the African continent, according
to London-based BP Plc. Standard Chartered Bank and FirstEnergy Capital Corp. acted
as financial advisers to Verenex. Macleod Dixon LLP provided legal counsel.
Scotia Waterhous Inc. was financial adviser to China National. Dewey & LeBouf LLP and Stikeman Elliot LLP provided legal counsel, while Ernst & Young acted as tax and accounting adviser to the Beijing-based company.
For Related News and Information:
Verenex Earnings: VNX CN TCNI ERN
China National acquisitions: CNPZ CN MNA
New York oil futures prices: CL1 GP
Top energy stories:ETOP
Feb. 26 (Bloomberg) -- China National Petroleum Corp., the biggest Chinese oil company, agreed to buy Canada's Verenex Energy Inc. for about C$499 million ($400 million) to expand in Libya, home to Africa's largest crude reserves. Beijing-based China National agreed on Feb. 24 to buy the Canadian company for C$10 a share in cash, according to a statement today from Calgary-based Verenex. The company said its
largest shareholder, Vermilion Resources Ltd., supports the sale. Verenex put itself up for sale in November after four straight years of losses. The takeover needs approval from Libyan officials under terms of an exploration and production accord
with the state-owned oil company, Verenex said. China National, which began exploring for oil in Libya in 2005, has the right to match any rival offer, and Verenex agreed to pay a C$15 million breakup fee if the company scuttles the
deal.
Verenex surged C$1.72, or 22 percent, to C$9.52 at 10:32 a.m. on the Toronto Stock Exchange after earlier increasing as much as 24 percent, the biggest intraday gain since Nov. 28. The shares have more than doubled in value since the company opened
its books to potential suitors on Nov. 26. Libya has 41.5 billion barrels of crude reserves, about 35 percent of the available oil on the African continent, according
to London-based BP Plc. Standard Chartered Bank and FirstEnergy Capital Corp. acted
as financial advisers to Verenex. Macleod Dixon LLP provided legal counsel.
Scotia Waterhous Inc. was financial adviser to China National. Dewey & LeBouf LLP and Stikeman Elliot LLP provided legal counsel, while Ernst & Young acted as tax and accounting adviser to the Beijing-based company.
For Related News and Information:
Verenex Earnings: VNX CN
China National acquisitions: CNPZ CN
New York oil futures prices: CL1
Top energy stories:ETOP
CIMB ITMG Result Note - Costs Remained High
Indo Tambangraya Megah Result note - Costs remained high - by Rania Rahmundita(ITMG IJ / ITMG.JK, NEUTRAL - Maintained, Rp9,600 - Tgt. Rp10,700, Basic Resources)
Indotambang's FY08 net profit jumped 320% yoy to US$234.9m, in line with our expectations but 17% above consensus. Production was mediocre, while costs remained the highest. There was a gain of US$27m from derivative transactions. There are additional coal-swap contracts maturing in 2009-10. The wide range of swap prices (US$68-165/tonne) makes it difficult to forecast gains/losses from these transactions. We remain Neutral, albeit with a higher DCF-based target price of Rp10,700 (WACC 16-21%) (from Rp10,000), resulting from longer life-of-mine assumptions. We do not expect production growth to be substantial, while costs are stickier than for the others, given a high and sticky strip ratio.
Lautandhana from Daily Update
Daily Update
Saham-saham Sektor Medicare Hapus Rally Sektor Keuangan, Wallstreet Kembali ditutup Melemah.
Bursa Eropa berhasil ditutup naik dengan indeks DJ Euro Stoxx naik 2,8% dan FTSE naik
1,7%.
Bursa Asia pagi ini bergerak positif dalam range yang tipis, Nikkei naik 0,7%, Kospi naik 1,2%, KLCI naik 0,6%, dan St times melemah 0,3%.
Bursa Indonesia hari ini diperkirakan masih akan bergerak mixed dengan range tipis.
Pergerakan dan potensi trading pada ITMG yang dikabarkan akan membagi dividen Rp400/saham. Saham lainnya PTBA, UNTR masih layak untuk dikoleksi. PGAS dikabarkan akan menderita rugi translasi yang cukup besar, namun secara kinerja keuangan masih
solid. Buy on Weakness pada PGAS.
Indika (INDY) siapkan tender offer Petrosea (PTRO) Harga akuisisi premium 30,32% dari penutupan pasar kemarin
Adaro (ADRO) kantongi utang US$120 juta
Laba bersih Indo Tambangraya (ITMG)melonjak 321,12%
Indocement (INTP) akan lunasi utang US$50 Juta
Trading Counter:
PTBA, UNTR Fundamental baik dan relative tahan terhadap kondisi market yang bearish
PGAS Buy on Weakness, sentiment adanya rugi translasi, fundamental tetap solid.
Saham-saham Sektor Medicare Hapus Rally Sektor Keuangan, Wallstreet Kembali ditutup Melemah.
Bursa Eropa berhasil ditutup naik dengan indeks DJ Euro Stoxx naik 2,8% dan FTSE naik
1,7%.
Bursa Asia pagi ini bergerak positif dalam range yang tipis, Nikkei naik 0,7%, Kospi naik 1,2%, KLCI naik 0,6%, dan St times melemah 0,3%.
Bursa Indonesia hari ini diperkirakan masih akan bergerak mixed dengan range tipis.
Pergerakan dan potensi trading pada ITMG yang dikabarkan akan membagi dividen Rp400/saham. Saham lainnya PTBA, UNTR masih layak untuk dikoleksi. PGAS dikabarkan akan menderita rugi translasi yang cukup besar, namun secara kinerja keuangan masih
solid. Buy on Weakness pada PGAS.
Indika (INDY) siapkan tender offer Petrosea (PTRO) Harga akuisisi premium 30,32% dari penutupan pasar kemarin
Adaro (ADRO) kantongi utang US$120 juta
Laba bersih Indo Tambangraya (ITMG)melonjak 321,12%
Indocement (INTP) akan lunasi utang US$50 Juta
Trading Counter:
PTBA, UNTR Fundamental baik dan relative tahan terhadap kondisi market yang bearish
PGAS Buy on Weakness, sentiment adanya rugi translasi, fundamental tetap solid.
CITI Global Econ Outlook and Strategy
Plumbing the Depths
The spread and severity of the global recession is heightening the obstacles to effective policymaking.
Despite improving U.S. credit conditions, financial and economic weaknesses have become mutually reinforcing.
Imminent fiscal measures and continuing financial and monetary policy efforts will likely buoy U.S. demand, but risks of deflation remain elevated.
In the face of a deepening euro area recession, we expect the ECB to cut rates to 0.5% in mid-2009 and to take more unconventional monetary measures.
The BoJ will likely focus on supporting dysfunctional financial markets by assuming credit risk and pushing down longer interest rates.
The deepening global recession is creating greater challenges to policymaking in emerging markets, where fiscal flexibility is challenged and capital outflows limit monetary policy easing.
China may have passed its cyclical bottom, but hurdles remain on the path to recovery.
Beyond managing cyclical recovery, markets will likely face more challenges to growth post the recession due to a rise in the cost of financial intermediation.
The spread and severity of the global recession is heightening the obstacles to effective policymaking.
Despite improving U.S. credit conditions, financial and economic weaknesses have become mutually reinforcing.
Imminent fiscal measures and continuing financial and monetary policy efforts will likely buoy U.S. demand, but risks of deflation remain elevated.
In the face of a deepening euro area recession, we expect the ECB to cut rates to 0.5% in mid-2009 and to take more unconventional monetary measures.
The BoJ will likely focus on supporting dysfunctional financial markets by assuming credit risk and pushing down longer interest rates.
The deepening global recession is creating greater challenges to policymaking in emerging markets, where fiscal flexibility is challenged and capital outflows limit monetary policy easing.
China may have passed its cyclical bottom, but hurdles remain on the path to recovery.
Beyond managing cyclical recovery, markets will likely face more challenges to growth post the recession due to a rise in the cost of financial intermediation.
CIMB Results – Indosat – Good cost-savings
4Q08 Results – Indosat – Good cost-savings
Indosat's FY08 core net profit exceeds our forecast and consensus expectations by 6% and 4%, due to lower-than-expected opex and depreciation. The results were characterised by strong wireless data growth; and low opex and depreciation.Indosat
did not issue any guidance or discuss its outlook for 2009, in compliance with Qatar Telecom's group-wide disclosure policy, but one will be released at end-March. We are adjusting our FY09-10 core net profit forecasts by -3% to 3% to reflect lower revenue growth assumptions but higher EBITDA margins. Our DCF-based target price remains Rp4,900. We maintain NEUTRAL on Indosat as we feel that the stock lacks catalysts. Switch to Telkom Indonesia.
Indosat's FY08 core net profit exceeds our forecast and consensus expectations by 6% and 4%, due to lower-than-expected opex and depreciation. The results were characterised by strong wireless data growth; and low opex and depreciation.Indosat
did not issue any guidance or discuss its outlook for 2009, in compliance with Qatar Telecom's group-wide disclosure policy, but one will be released at end-March. We are adjusting our FY09-10 core net profit forecasts by -3% to 3% to reflect lower revenue growth assumptions but higher EBITDA margins. Our DCF-based target price remains Rp4,900. We maintain NEUTRAL on Indosat as we feel that the stock lacks catalysts. Switch to Telkom Indonesia.
Bloomberg Russian Stocks Jump Most in Eight Days as Oil, Steel Rally
Feb. 26 (Bloomberg) -- Russia’s Micex Index climbed the most in eight days, led by energy and metal stocks, as oil advanced to a one-month high, while nickel and copper rose for a fourth day.
OAO Rosneft, the nation’s biggest oil producer, and OAO GMK Norilsk Nickel, the largest mining company, rallied more than 4 percent. Steelmaker Evraz Group SA increased for the first time in five days.
“Oil is the primary locomotive for the surge in Russia,” said Julian Rimmer, head of sales trading at UralSib Financial Corp. “Steel stocks have been walloped in recent weeks. Some of the selling pressure has been alleviated.”
Crude gained as much as 2.5 percent to $43.57 a barrel in New York after a retreat in U.S. gasoline supplies boosted speculation that fuel demand may improve. Russian equity indexes are dominated by oil and gas producers. more...
OAO Rosneft, the nation’s biggest oil producer, and OAO GMK Norilsk Nickel, the largest mining company, rallied more than 4 percent. Steelmaker Evraz Group SA increased for the first time in five days.
“Oil is the primary locomotive for the surge in Russia,” said Julian Rimmer, head of sales trading at UralSib Financial Corp. “Steel stocks have been walloped in recent weeks. Some of the selling pressure has been alleviated.”
Crude gained as much as 2.5 percent to $43.57 a barrel in New York after a retreat in U.S. gasoline supplies boosted speculation that fuel demand may improve. Russian equity indexes are dominated by oil and gas producers. more...
Bloomberg U.S. Stocks Slump as Drop in Health-Care Offsets Bank Rally
Feb. 26 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks fell for a second day as concern health-care profits will be hurt by a White House overhaul of the medical system offset a rally in banks spurred by the administration’s request for more financial-rescue funds.
UnitedHealth Group Inc. and Humana Inc. slid at least 12.8 percent and Eli Lilly & Co. lost 4.7 percent on concern Obama will cut Medicare payments to insurers and raise rebates drugmakers must provide to patients on Medicaid. SLM Corp., known as Sallie Mae, tumbled 31 percent as the president proposed ending its student loan subsidies. JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Wells Fargo & Co. gained more than 6 percent as Obama’s budget proposed as much as $750 billion in new bailout funds. more...
Kamis, 26 Februari 2009
Bloomberg Oil Trades Near One-Month High on Equities, Falling Fuel Supply
Feb. 26 (Bloomberg) -- Oil rose, trading near the highest in a month, as stronger equities markets and declining U.S. gasoline supplies increased speculation that fuel demand may improve.
Oil rose as European stocks climbed for the first time in five days. Gasoline stockpiles declined 3.32 million barrels to 215.3 million barrels last week, the Energy Department said in a report yesterday. Consumption averaged 9 million barrels a day over the past four weeks, up 1.7 percent from a year earlier, as pump prices fell.
“The market is consolidating after last night’s gains on the back of a fairly bullish U.S. fuel inventories report,” said Andrey Kryuchenkov, an analyst with VTB Capital in London. “Risk sentiment has improved, with gains in global equities also supporting the market.”
Crude oil for April delivery climbed as much as $1.07, or 2.5 percent, to $43.57 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It traded at $43.03 at 1:42 p.m. in London. more...
Oil rose as European stocks climbed for the first time in five days. Gasoline stockpiles declined 3.32 million barrels to 215.3 million barrels last week, the Energy Department said in a report yesterday. Consumption averaged 9 million barrels a day over the past four weeks, up 1.7 percent from a year earlier, as pump prices fell.
“The market is consolidating after last night’s gains on the back of a fairly bullish U.S. fuel inventories report,” said Andrey Kryuchenkov, an analyst with VTB Capital in London. “Risk sentiment has improved, with gains in global equities also supporting the market.”
Crude oil for April delivery climbed as much as $1.07, or 2.5 percent, to $43.57 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It traded at $43.03 at 1:42 p.m. in London. more...
Bloomberg Yen Falls to Lowest Since November on Concern Economy Worsening
Feb. 26 (Bloomberg) -- The yen fell to a three-month low against the dollar and weakened versus the euro before government reports tomorrow that may show rising unemployment and falling consumer prices in Japan.
The Japanese currency is headed for its worst month against the dollar in 13 years and the poorest versus the euro since 2000 as the deepening recession reduces the yen’s appeal. The euro is poised for a second monthly loss against the dollar on concern financial turmoil in eastern Europe will worsen, backing the case for the region’s central bank to lower interest rates.
“The economics have got to a tipping point for the yen,” said Neil Mellor, a currency strategist in London at Bank of New York Mellon Corp., the world’s biggest custodian of financial assets. “We’re looking at a fresh era of deflation in Japan.”
The yen weakened to 97.92 per dollar as of 7:20 a.m. in New York from 97.39 yesterday. It reached 98.01 today, the weakest since Nov. 14. It depreciated to 125.02 per euro, from 123.92 yesterday. It earlier touched 125.19, the weakest level since Jan. 9. The yen may trade at 105 per dollar within six months, Mellor said. more...
Associated Press Emirates cuts oil supplies
CAIRO (AP) -- The United Arab Emirates on Thursday said it would further cut oil shipments to customers, starting in April, reflecting a further push for OPEC compliance as the group struggles to shore up slumping crude prices by siphoning barrels from a global market in which demand is steadily eroding.
The Abu Dhabi National Oil Company would cut as much as 17 percent of its output on various grads, reported the Emirates' official news agency, WAM, adding that the cuts were on top of earlier reductions of 10-15 percent announced late January. The move comes as analysts say the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries has largely made good on its pledge to cut production by 4.2 million barrels a day in the face of a nearly 70 percent slump in oil prices since mid-July.
The 12-nation producer bloc is gearing up for a meeting in March, with many of its oil revenue-dependent members already calling for further reductions because of budgetary woes. Analysts believe that the group may be gearing up for an additional cut of about 1 million barrels a day.
At the group's upcoming Vienna meeting, "it will be easier for OPEC to make an additional small cut," said Oliver Jakob, managing director of the Swiss-based oil consultancy, Petromatrix. "If they were at 50 percent (compliance), it would do nothing to the market to have another 1 million barrel per day reduction. more...
The Abu Dhabi National Oil Company would cut as much as 17 percent of its output on various grads, reported the Emirates' official news agency, WAM, adding that the cuts were on top of earlier reductions of 10-15 percent announced late January. The move comes as analysts say the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries has largely made good on its pledge to cut production by 4.2 million barrels a day in the face of a nearly 70 percent slump in oil prices since mid-July.
The 12-nation producer bloc is gearing up for a meeting in March, with many of its oil revenue-dependent members already calling for further reductions because of budgetary woes. Analysts believe that the group may be gearing up for an additional cut of about 1 million barrels a day.
At the group's upcoming Vienna meeting, "it will be easier for OPEC to make an additional small cut," said Oliver Jakob, managing director of the Swiss-based oil consultancy, Petromatrix. "If they were at 50 percent (compliance), it would do nothing to the market to have another 1 million barrel per day reduction. more...
CNBC Jobless Claims Hit New Record; Durable Orders Fall
By: Reuters | 26 Feb 2009 | 08:46 AM ET
The number of U.S. workers continuing to claim jobless benefits notched a fresh record in the second week of February, Labor Department data showed on Thursday, while new claims for aid were at the highest level since 1982.The number of people remaining on the benefits roll after drawing an initial week of assistance increased by 114,000 to a more-then-forecast 5.112 million in the week ended Feb 14, the most recent week for which data is available. Analysts estimated so-called continued claims would be 5.00 million.
Also, new U.S. orders for long-lasting manufactured goods fell for a sixth consecutive month to a six-year low in January, a government report showed on Thursday, as a global slump crimped exports and domestic spending faltered.
The decline in durable goods orders and its major components was much more than expected.
The Commerce Department said durable goods orders dropped 5.2 percent to $163.8 billion in January, the lowest level since December 2002. Orders for the prior month were revised down to a drop of 4.6 percent, previously reported as a 3 percent contraction.New orders excluding transportation dropped 2.5 percent in January, while motor vehicles and parts fell 6.4 percent.
Non-defense capital goods orders excluding aircraft, a closely watched proxy for business spending, fell 5.4 percent in January. The previous month was revised to show a 5.8 percent plunge, previously reported as a 3.2 percent drop.
Analysts polled by Reuters had expected overall new orders to fall 2.5 percent in January and orders excluding transportation to drop 2.1 percent.
The number of U.S. workers continuing to claim jobless benefits notched a fresh record in the second week of February, Labor Department data showed on Thursday, while new claims for aid were at the highest level since 1982.The number of people remaining on the benefits roll after drawing an initial week of assistance increased by 114,000 to a more-then-forecast 5.112 million in the week ended Feb 14, the most recent week for which data is available. Analysts estimated so-called continued claims would be 5.00 million.
Also, new U.S. orders for long-lasting manufactured goods fell for a sixth consecutive month to a six-year low in January, a government report showed on Thursday, as a global slump crimped exports and domestic spending faltered.
The decline in durable goods orders and its major components was much more than expected.
The Commerce Department said durable goods orders dropped 5.2 percent to $163.8 billion in January, the lowest level since December 2002. Orders for the prior month were revised down to a drop of 4.6 percent, previously reported as a 3 percent contraction.New orders excluding transportation dropped 2.5 percent in January, while motor vehicles and parts fell 6.4 percent.
Non-defense capital goods orders excluding aircraft, a closely watched proxy for business spending, fell 5.4 percent in January. The previous month was revised to show a 5.8 percent plunge, previously reported as a 3.2 percent drop.
Analysts polled by Reuters had expected overall new orders to fall 2.5 percent in January and orders excluding transportation to drop 2.1 percent.
Associated Press New jobless claims jump unexpectedly to 667,000, continuing claims top 5 million
Thursday February 26, 2009, 8:40 am EST
WASHINGTON (AP) -- The number of newly laid-off Americans seeking unemployment benefits rose far more than expected last week as employers cut thousands of jobs amid a deepening recession.
The Labor Department says first-time requests for unemployment benefits jumped to 667,000 from the previous week's figure of 631,000. Analysts had expected a slight drop in claims.
That's the highest level of initial claims since October 1982, though the labor force has grown by about half since then.
The number of people receiving unemployment insurance for more than one week also increased more than expected to 5.1 million. That's the fifth straight week the jobless benefit rolls have set a new record-high on data going back to 1967.
WASHINGTON (AP) -- The number of newly laid-off Americans seeking unemployment benefits rose far more than expected last week as employers cut thousands of jobs amid a deepening recession.
The Labor Department says first-time requests for unemployment benefits jumped to 667,000 from the previous week's figure of 631,000. Analysts had expected a slight drop in claims.
That's the highest level of initial claims since October 1982, though the labor force has grown by about half since then.
The number of people receiving unemployment insurance for more than one week also increased more than expected to 5.1 million. That's the fifth straight week the jobless benefit rolls have set a new record-high on data going back to 1967.
Indika Ambil Alih 81,95% Saham Petrosea US$ 83,8 Juta
Jakarta - PT Indika Energy Tbk (INDY) baru saja menandatangani pengambilalihan 81,95% saham PT Petrosea Tbk (PTRO) senilai US$ 83,8 juta. Finalisasi pengambilalihan akan dilakukan pada Mei 2009. "Kita baru saja menandatangani perjanjian pengambilalihan 81,95% saham PTRO senilai US$ 83,8 juta," ungkap Investor Relations INDY, Retina Rosabai saat dihubungi detikFinance, Kamis (26/2/2009).
Retina mengatakan, pembayaran akan menggunakan kas internal perseroan sepenuhnya dan akan dilakukan pada Mei 2009. "Dana akuisisi akan menggunakan kas internal. Finalisasi akan dilakukan pada pertengahan tahun, sekitar Mei dan Juni 2009," jelas Retina.
Sayangnya, Retina belum bisa memberikan kepastian kapan tender offer atas saham publik PTRO dapat dilakukan oleh INDY sebagai pengendali baru. Namun, jika tender offer dilakukan, INDY harus membeli 18,05% atau sekitar 18,519 juta saham PTRO. Sebelumnya beredar kabar bahwa INDY akan melakukan tender offer atas saham PTRO di kisaran harga Rp 10.670-11.220 per saham atau sekitar Rp 197,6 miliar hingga Rp 207,79 miliar.
(dro/lih)
CLSA Indosat (ISAT IJ - Rp4,350 - UPF). Second Largest Mobile Operator in Indonesia
Indosat (ISAT IJ - Rp4,350 - UPF). Second largest mobile operator in Indonesia. Mkt Cap US$2bn.
Indosat result is at the high end of expectation. Net profit came in at Rp1.88tn including Rp817bn net FX loss from its US$660m debt that are partly (68%) hedged. Excluding FX loss, net profit would be Rp2.45tn (vs. our expectation of Rp1.91tn.
Ebit came in at Rp4.73tn vs. our expectation of Rp4.46tn. Ebit margin at 25% in FY08 vs. 24.4% in 9m08 implying a margin expansion in 4Q08.
Ebitda margin also expanded slightly from 49.2% in 9m08 to 49.7% in FY08, implying a Ebitda margin of 51% in 4Q08.
Total subscriber 36.5m at YE08, adding only 1.03m net add in 4Q08 vs. 3.1m in 3Q08 and 2.5m net add in 4Q07.
The result shows that Indosat is holding up better (especially after the poor result of #3 operator Excelcomindo), thus there is a chance of good recovery in the coming quarters as competition rationalised and tariff pressure abating.
Indosat result is at the high end of expectation. Net profit came in at Rp1.88tn including Rp817bn net FX loss from its US$660m debt that are partly (68%) hedged. Excluding FX loss, net profit would be Rp2.45tn (vs. our expectation of Rp1.91tn.
Ebit came in at Rp4.73tn vs. our expectation of Rp4.46tn. Ebit margin at 25% in FY08 vs. 24.4% in 9m08 implying a margin expansion in 4Q08.
Ebitda margin also expanded slightly from 49.2% in 9m08 to 49.7% in FY08, implying a Ebitda margin of 51% in 4Q08.
Total subscriber 36.5m at YE08, adding only 1.03m net add in 4Q08 vs. 3.1m in 3Q08 and 2.5m net add in 4Q07.
The result shows that Indosat is holding up better (especially after the poor result of #3 operator Excelcomindo), thus there is a chance of good recovery in the coming quarters as competition rationalised and tariff pressure abating.
Indopremier INCO Downgrade TP to US$ 0,18, or Rp 2.110
FY08 Result below our Estimates
INCO managed to post sales of US$ 1,312 million for 2008 or reached 95% of our estimate. With net earning of US$ 359 million or EPS US$ 0.0036, the earning dropped by 69% YoY, below our estimate of US$ 0.04 which we estimate to decline 65% YoY. The EBITDA only reached US$ 550 million which was only 85% of our EBITDA calculation of US$ 653 million. Falling nickel price, 40.6% YoY or 10.5% below our estimate, is the dominant factor that has drowned the financial result.
Beside the plunge of nickel price, declining production has also contributed to the tumbling sales. Production FY08 reached 72,400 metric tons or represented 92% of our estimate of 79,000 metric tons. This happened as INCO stopped using fuel-based power generators in order to maintain the profitability. Meanwhile, sales volume FY08 reached 73,0048 or 95% from our estimate.
Three main Projects in 2009
Even though FY08 result is not as great as FY07, INCO still focusing onto three main projects for 2009 as follows:
1.) Hydro generating power electric
2.) Coal Conversion
3.) ESP production facility
A total of US$ 228.8 million is prepared for capital expenditure. Estimated cost for Karrebe project in 2009 accounted for US$ 116 million. So far the construction of Karrebe project has reached 50%. INCO is prepared to obtain bank loan if internal cash could not meet the capex needs
Recommendation and Valuation
Based on our new assumptions, with WACC of 19.8% (Rf 12% , beta 1.45x, risk premium 6.5%, target debt ratio 10% and terminal growth 5%) our DCF based valuation model arrive in new TP at US$ 0.18 (decline 32% from our previous TP at US$ 0.25). By assuming exchange rate at Rp 11,500/US$ we get the new TP at Rp 2,110 per share or only decrease 12% from previous TP at Rp 2,384 per share (assuming Rp 9,700/US$).
INCO managed to post sales of US$ 1,312 million for 2008 or reached 95% of our estimate. With net earning of US$ 359 million or EPS US$ 0.0036, the earning dropped by 69% YoY, below our estimate of US$ 0.04 which we estimate to decline 65% YoY. The EBITDA only reached US$ 550 million which was only 85% of our EBITDA calculation of US$ 653 million. Falling nickel price, 40.6% YoY or 10.5% below our estimate, is the dominant factor that has drowned the financial result.
Beside the plunge of nickel price, declining production has also contributed to the tumbling sales. Production FY08 reached 72,400 metric tons or represented 92% of our estimate of 79,000 metric tons. This happened as INCO stopped using fuel-based power generators in order to maintain the profitability. Meanwhile, sales volume FY08 reached 73,0048 or 95% from our estimate.
Three main Projects in 2009
Even though FY08 result is not as great as FY07, INCO still focusing onto three main projects for 2009 as follows:
1.) Hydro generating power electric
2.) Coal Conversion
3.) ESP production facility
A total of US$ 228.8 million is prepared for capital expenditure. Estimated cost for Karrebe project in 2009 accounted for US$ 116 million. So far the construction of Karrebe project has reached 50%. INCO is prepared to obtain bank loan if internal cash could not meet the capex needs
Recommendation and Valuation
Based on our new assumptions, with WACC of 19.8% (Rf 12% , beta 1.45x, risk premium 6.5%, target debt ratio 10% and terminal growth 5%) our DCF based valuation model arrive in new TP at US$ 0.18 (decline 32% from our previous TP at US$ 0.25). By assuming exchange rate at Rp 11,500/US$ we get the new TP at Rp 2,110 per share or only decrease 12% from previous TP at Rp 2,384 per share (assuming Rp 9,700/US$).
CLSA Indo Tambangraya (ITMG IJ) Reported Better Than Expected 2008 Full Year Results
Indo Tambangraya (ITMG IJ) reported better than expected 2008 full year results. Net profit came in 20% above our and consensus estimate. ITMG remains our top pick in the sector. Here are comments from analyst Olie:
The company posted US$235m in net profit in FY08, up by 321% YoY. The result came in 20% above our and consensus estimate on the back of better than assumed operating performance and some hedging gain.
Operating profit came at US$340m, up by 180% YoY, slightly above our, 5%, and around 10% higher than consensus estimates. We believe this came on the back of lower than assumed cost.
Meanwhile the company also posted net gain from oil and coal hedging amounting US$27m, after had posted hedging loss of US$20m in 9M08.
Strong result should translate to solid dividend, with the company paying out 60% of earnings. We expect total dividend this year to be in the range of US$c12.9/share, translating to a yield of 15%.
Separately, Banpu, the parent company, also announced new reserves numbers following technical studies and audit by independent mining consultants. ITM reserves have increased by 30% YoY, amounting to a total of 312m tonnes. Life of mine has therefore been extended from 13 years to 17 years. Note that ITM total resources are around 1,675m tonnes.
The company posted US$235m in net profit in FY08, up by 321% YoY. The result came in 20% above our and consensus estimate on the back of better than assumed operating performance and some hedging gain.
Operating profit came at US$340m, up by 180% YoY, slightly above our, 5%, and around 10% higher than consensus estimates. We believe this came on the back of lower than assumed cost.
Meanwhile the company also posted net gain from oil and coal hedging amounting US$27m, after had posted hedging loss of US$20m in 9M08.
Strong result should translate to solid dividend, with the company paying out 60% of earnings. We expect total dividend this year to be in the range of US$c12.9/share, translating to a yield of 15%.
Separately, Banpu, the parent company, also announced new reserves numbers following technical studies and audit by independent mining consultants. ITM reserves have increased by 30% YoY, amounting to a total of 312m tonnes. Life of mine has therefore been extended from 13 years to 17 years. Note that ITM total resources are around 1,675m tonnes.
Reuters Shenzhen today
SHANGHAI, Feb 24 (Reuters) - China's main stock index tumbled 4.56 percent on Tuesday, led down by financial and steel shares, after a slide by U.S. stocks to 12-year lows increased fears over the global economy and markets.
Auto shares outperformed on news of a Chinese government plan to strengthen the sector, which may involve mergers to cut the number of major auto groups.
The Shanghai Composite Index <.SSEC> ended at a two-week closing low of 2,200.654 points, not far from the day's low of 2,193.268. Losing Shanghai A shares outnumbered gainers by 766 to 173, as turnover in Shanghai A shares rose to a very heavy 157.9 billion yuan ($23.1 billion) from Monday's 138.2 billion yuan.
China Construction Bank <601939.SS> sank 4.90 percent to 4.08 yuan and China Life Insurance <601628.SS> lost 6.40 percent to 20.92 yuan.
CITIC Securities <600030.SS> , which is the biggest listed brokerage and so is often seen as a barometer of the market's outlook, slid 9.83 percent to 22.42 yuan and Haitong Securities
<600837.SS> plunged its 10 percent daily limit to 12.33 yuan.
The index has major chart support between 2,000 and 2,100 points, where it peaked repeatedly from November to January, and analysts said there was a good chance of that area being tested.
"The market has been hit by a couple of steep falls since last week, and each has erased several days of rises. This might drive some investors out of the market," said Huatai Securities analyst Chen Jinren.
LIQUIDITY
Many analysts think stocks' rally this year was to a large degree due not to reasonable expectations for an economic recovery, but to heavy inflows of money created by monetary easing and government pressure on banks to boost lending.
New bank lending is now expected to shrink from January's record levels, which could pressure the stock market.
Merrill Lynch said in a report on Tuesday that excess money should keep China's stock market outperforming other markets, despite wobbles due to global events, until a Chinese economic recovery sucked liquidity out of stocks.
But Stephen Green, economist at Standard Chartered Bank, said stocks appeared to be on shaky foundations.
"The liquidity boom in the stock market may well come to an abrupt end if loan growth were to slow sharply; a stock market decline would in turn cause a further slowdown in loan growth as short-term speculative borrowing returned to the banks.
"This slowdown may already be happening. Given the weak state of profits, most serious observers doubt that there is much foundation to the recent stock market boom."
Green added, however, that a sharp slowdown in February loan growth could pressure the central bank into easing monetary policy again, and this might cause a second wave of liquidity into stocks.
BANKS
Banks had led the market up on Monday as Shenzhen Development Bank (SDB) <000001.SZ> jumped its 10 percent daily limit on a local media report that it might soon be taken over by China Development Bank (CDB).
But there was no confirmation of this -- CDB said it had no plan to buy SDB, which suspended its shares, saying it was investigating the report. Disappointment that a deal was probably not imminent pulled down banks from the opening on Tuesday.
A source familiar with the situation told Reuters that CDB was studying various potential Chinese bank targets, including SDB, for a possible acquisition or strategic investment, but that talks with SDB remained in an early stage. [nSHA318575]
Baoshan Iron & Steel <600019.SS> , the biggest listed steel maker, sank 5.62 percent to 5.71 yuan after senior officials at the China Iron and Steel Association delivered a gloomy analysis of the industry on Monday.
"Some people may view demand as reviving (because prices recovered in January), but I don't. The imbalance in supply and demand will continue to create an unstable situation," said Luo Bingsheng, secretary-general of the association. [nPEK314152]
Auto shares outperformed on Tuesday, with SAIC <600104.SS> down just 0.11 percent to 8.83 yuan, after the official China Securities Journal said the government aimed to cut the number of major auto-making groups through mergers to 10 at most from 14.
The government will provide subsidies worth 5 billion yuan between March and end-2009 to aid purchases of autos in rural areas, and aims to stabilise demand so that China's total vehicle sales and production this year both exceed 10 million vehicles, and grow an average 10 percent annually over the next three years, the newspaper said. [nSHA366726]
Chongqing Changan Auto's A shares <000625.SZ> surged 10 percent for a seventh straight day since the firm said it would spend up to HK$909 million ($117 million) to buy back its B shares. However, its B shares <200625.SZ> gained only 1.68 percent after rising 10 percent for six days. [nSHA321234]
Gold producers kept rising, with Shandong Gold <600547.SS> up 4.45 percent to 77.74 yuan, on speculation that the global financial crisis would boost the international spot gold price
further, despite a pull-back by the price on Tuesday.
Auto shares outperformed on news of a Chinese government plan to strengthen the sector, which may involve mergers to cut the number of major auto groups.
The Shanghai Composite Index <.SSEC> ended at a two-week closing low of 2,200.654 points, not far from the day's low of 2,193.268. Losing Shanghai A shares outnumbered gainers by 766 to 173, as turnover in Shanghai A shares rose to a very heavy 157.9 billion yuan ($23.1 billion) from Monday's 138.2 billion yuan.
China Construction Bank <601939.SS> sank 4.90 percent to 4.08 yuan and China Life Insurance <601628.SS> lost 6.40 percent to 20.92 yuan.
CITIC Securities <600030.SS> , which is the biggest listed brokerage and so is often seen as a barometer of the market's outlook, slid 9.83 percent to 22.42 yuan and Haitong Securities
<600837.SS> plunged its 10 percent daily limit to 12.33 yuan.
The index has major chart support between 2,000 and 2,100 points, where it peaked repeatedly from November to January, and analysts said there was a good chance of that area being tested.
"The market has been hit by a couple of steep falls since last week, and each has erased several days of rises. This might drive some investors out of the market," said Huatai Securities analyst Chen Jinren.
LIQUIDITY
Many analysts think stocks' rally this year was to a large degree due not to reasonable expectations for an economic recovery, but to heavy inflows of money created by monetary easing and government pressure on banks to boost lending.
New bank lending is now expected to shrink from January's record levels, which could pressure the stock market.
Merrill Lynch said in a report on Tuesday that excess money should keep China's stock market outperforming other markets, despite wobbles due to global events, until a Chinese economic recovery sucked liquidity out of stocks.
But Stephen Green, economist at Standard Chartered Bank, said stocks appeared to be on shaky foundations.
"The liquidity boom in the stock market may well come to an abrupt end if loan growth were to slow sharply; a stock market decline would in turn cause a further slowdown in loan growth as short-term speculative borrowing returned to the banks.
"This slowdown may already be happening. Given the weak state of profits, most serious observers doubt that there is much foundation to the recent stock market boom."
Green added, however, that a sharp slowdown in February loan growth could pressure the central bank into easing monetary policy again, and this might cause a second wave of liquidity into stocks.
BANKS
Banks had led the market up on Monday as Shenzhen Development Bank (SDB) <000001.SZ> jumped its 10 percent daily limit on a local media report that it might soon be taken over by China Development Bank (CDB).
But there was no confirmation of this -- CDB said it had no plan to buy SDB, which suspended its shares, saying it was investigating the report. Disappointment that a deal was probably not imminent pulled down banks from the opening on Tuesday.
A source familiar with the situation told Reuters that CDB was studying various potential Chinese bank targets, including SDB, for a possible acquisition or strategic investment, but that talks with SDB remained in an early stage. [nSHA318575]
Baoshan Iron & Steel <600019.SS> , the biggest listed steel maker, sank 5.62 percent to 5.71 yuan after senior officials at the China Iron and Steel Association delivered a gloomy analysis of the industry on Monday.
"Some people may view demand as reviving (because prices recovered in January), but I don't. The imbalance in supply and demand will continue to create an unstable situation," said Luo Bingsheng, secretary-general of the association. [nPEK314152]
Auto shares outperformed on Tuesday, with SAIC <600104.SS> down just 0.11 percent to 8.83 yuan, after the official China Securities Journal said the government aimed to cut the number of major auto-making groups through mergers to 10 at most from 14.
The government will provide subsidies worth 5 billion yuan between March and end-2009 to aid purchases of autos in rural areas, and aims to stabilise demand so that China's total vehicle sales and production this year both exceed 10 million vehicles, and grow an average 10 percent annually over the next three years, the newspaper said. [nSHA366726]
Chongqing Changan Auto's A shares <000625.SZ> surged 10 percent for a seventh straight day since the firm said it would spend up to HK$909 million ($117 million) to buy back its B shares. However, its B shares <200625.SZ> gained only 1.68 percent after rising 10 percent for six days. [nSHA321234]
Gold producers kept rising, with Shandong Gold <600547.SS> up 4.45 percent to 77.74 yuan, on speculation that the global financial crisis would boost the international spot gold price
Kim Eng London Sumatra: CPO sales volume rose 6% , but production lower
London Sumatra: CPO sales volume rose 6% , but production lower
Management released operation data for FY08, as follows:
Sales volume for CPO increased by 6% to 353.8k tons, while that of kernel was up by 7% to 76.3k tons.
We'd like to note that sales volume of rubber fell sharply to 22.87k tons or down 27% YoY compared to 31.4k tons in FY07.
FFB production was actually drop by 3.6% to 1,481k tons, both from nucleus (down 4.2%%) and from plasma (down 2.2%).
Despite increase of 8.2% to 24.1k tons, FFB purchase from third party still remains minor, only 1.6% of total FFB processed.
CPO production was 341.5k tons or down 2.6% YY
Rubber production was down 25% YoY to 23.44 k tons.
Comment:
With extraction rate remained stable at 23.5% for CPO, we suspects higher CPO sales volume came from inventory.
Overall, production of FFB, CPO and rubber is below our expectation.
We reckon that London Sumatra has higher production cost compared to Astra Agro Lestari.
For comparison, Lonsum's gross and operating margins in 9M8 were 41.1% and 38.9%, meanwhile those of Astra were 50.9% and 46.4%.
We are reviewing our forecast and recommendation
Management released operation data for FY08, as follows:
Sales volume for CPO increased by 6% to 353.8k tons, while that of kernel was up by 7% to 76.3k tons.
We'd like to note that sales volume of rubber fell sharply to 22.87k tons or down 27% YoY compared to 31.4k tons in FY07.
FFB production was actually drop by 3.6% to 1,481k tons, both from nucleus (down 4.2%%) and from plasma (down 2.2%).
Despite increase of 8.2% to 24.1k tons, FFB purchase from third party still remains minor, only 1.6% of total FFB processed.
CPO production was 341.5k tons or down 2.6% YY
Rubber production was down 25% YoY to 23.44 k tons.
Comment:
With extraction rate remained stable at 23.5% for CPO, we suspects higher CPO sales volume came from inventory.
Overall, production of FFB, CPO and rubber is below our expectation.
We reckon that London Sumatra has higher production cost compared to Astra Agro Lestari.
For comparison, Lonsum's gross and operating margins in 9M8 were 41.1% and 38.9%, meanwhile those of Astra were 50.9% and 46.4%.
We are reviewing our forecast and recommendation
Lautandhana AALI Underperform
Muhamad Sugiarto Research Analyst Underperform
CPO Price is Still Major Issue
Harga CPO di pasar international masih menjadi isu utama dalam kinerja emiten perkebunan, PT. Astra Agro Lestari Tbk. Outlook harga CPO untuk tahun 2009 diperkirakan masih lemah seiring dengan melambatnya pertumbuhan ekonomi negara-negara Asia dan Eropa. Kami perkirakan harga CPO untuk tahun 2009 dan 2010 adalah sebesar US$ 530 dan US$ 550 per ton.
Mature Plantation Growth, CPO Production Growth
Perseroan masih memiliki potensi terus meningkatnya produksi tandan buah segar (TBS) seiring bertambah banyaknya tanaman yang memasuki usia menghasilkan (mature). Produksi TBS tahun 2009 diperkirakan mencapai 4,2 juta ton meningkat 5% dari tahun 2008 sebesar 3,9 juta ton. Dampaknya adalah produksi CPO perseroan diperkirakan juga akan meningkat menjadi 1.012.408 atau naik 3,15% YoY.
Need Expansion Land in 2010
Perusahaan berencana mengerem ekspansi lahannya padatahun ini, namun kami tetap mengasumsikan penambahan lahan 20.000 ha mulai tahun 2010 mengingat profil lahan perseroan yang diperkirakan akan memasuki usia menghasilkan semua pada 2012, hal ini
untuk kelangsungan usaha di tahun-tahun mendatang.
Recommendation
Dengan menggunakan metode DCF, LT Growth 5%, wacc 12,92%, didapat fair value AALI sebesar Rp10.300. Underperform
CPO Price is Still Major Issue
Harga CPO di pasar international masih menjadi isu utama dalam kinerja emiten perkebunan, PT. Astra Agro Lestari Tbk. Outlook harga CPO untuk tahun 2009 diperkirakan masih lemah seiring dengan melambatnya pertumbuhan ekonomi negara-negara Asia dan Eropa. Kami perkirakan harga CPO untuk tahun 2009 dan 2010 adalah sebesar US$ 530 dan US$ 550 per ton.
Mature Plantation Growth, CPO Production Growth
Perseroan masih memiliki potensi terus meningkatnya produksi tandan buah segar (TBS) seiring bertambah banyaknya tanaman yang memasuki usia menghasilkan (mature). Produksi TBS tahun 2009 diperkirakan mencapai 4,2 juta ton meningkat 5% dari tahun 2008 sebesar 3,9 juta ton. Dampaknya adalah produksi CPO perseroan diperkirakan juga akan meningkat menjadi 1.012.408 atau naik 3,15% YoY.
Need Expansion Land in 2010
Perusahaan berencana mengerem ekspansi lahannya padatahun ini, namun kami tetap mengasumsikan penambahan lahan 20.000 ha mulai tahun 2010 mengingat profil lahan perseroan yang diperkirakan akan memasuki usia menghasilkan semua pada 2012, hal ini
untuk kelangsungan usaha di tahun-tahun mendatang.
Recommendation
Dengan menggunakan metode DCF, LT Growth 5%, wacc 12,92%, didapat fair value AALI sebesar Rp10.300. Underperform
DBS AALI FULLY VALUED
Excluding one-off gain from sale of overlapping estates, Astra Agro Lestari (AALI) FY08 net profit was slightly below forecast, due to higher-than-expected operating expenses. 4Q08 revenue edged down by 28.6% q-o-q, as the 15.4% jump in CPO sales volume helped to mitigate 34.3% fall in ASP. We are keeping our cautious outlook on both volume and price over the coming quarters. Considering the lofty multiples at which AALI is currently trading, we reiterate our Fully Valued call on the stock, with TP of Rp7,175, implying 10.8 FY10F PE.
Stripping out one-off net gain Rp282.3b from the sale of its overlapping estate to Adaro, AALI’s FY08 net profit was Rp2.3tn, c.5.7% lower than forecast. This was mainly due to higher than expected operating expenses, which in addition to high freight rates earlier in the year, we believe were attributable to year-end bonuses. Excluding the gains, 4Q08 net profit would have dropped by 58.9% q-o-q to Rp218.8b, reflecting the 64.5% lower operating profit.
Previously, AALI had booked the Adaro’s payment in other payables, as it had not been
required to handover the sold estates until 2012. However, we believe the auditors have now advised them to recognize the gains in FY08.
The group’s 4Q08 operating cash flow was negative. We suspect this was mainly due to prepayment of fertilizers. Overall, net change in cash flow was also negative due to Rp505 dividend payment and capex spending of c.Rp356b. Judging by its cash level, we believe AALI may have to cut its final dividend payout from our assumption of Rp1.2tn.
We have yet to impute maximum tax rate of 28% (from current 30%) for FY09, pending further clarity on the new regulation. For now, we maintain our Fully Valued call on valuation concerns.
Stripping out one-off net gain Rp282.3b from the sale of its overlapping estate to Adaro, AALI’s FY08 net profit was Rp2.3tn, c.5.7% lower than forecast. This was mainly due to higher than expected operating expenses, which in addition to high freight rates earlier in the year, we believe were attributable to year-end bonuses. Excluding the gains, 4Q08 net profit would have dropped by 58.9% q-o-q to Rp218.8b, reflecting the 64.5% lower operating profit.
Previously, AALI had booked the Adaro’s payment in other payables, as it had not been
required to handover the sold estates until 2012. However, we believe the auditors have now advised them to recognize the gains in FY08.
The group’s 4Q08 operating cash flow was negative. We suspect this was mainly due to prepayment of fertilizers. Overall, net change in cash flow was also negative due to Rp505 dividend payment and capex spending of c.Rp356b. Judging by its cash level, we believe AALI may have to cut its final dividend payout from our assumption of Rp1.2tn.
We have yet to impute maximum tax rate of 28% (from current 30%) for FY09, pending further clarity on the new regulation. For now, we maintain our Fully Valued call on valuation concerns.
J.P.Morgan on Astra Agro Lestari FY08 Results: High fertilizer inventory may carry margin pressures into FY09
Margin pressures into FY09
FY08 profits below par, masked by one-off income: *AALI reported FY08 Net Profits of Rp 2.6 trn, including an Rp 403 bn (11% of PBT)nonrecurring income from sale of certain plantation assets. Adjusting for the nonrecurring item (which was expected), FY08A Net profits were 11% below our forecasts and about 9% below consensus.
4Q margin drop on high input costs: *4QFY08 revenues were in line, but EBITDA margins surprised at just 22% as production costs/T were about 35% higher than our forecast. Although AALI’s financial statements do not break costs down to the line item, we ascribe high fertilizer prices (about 31% of ex-factory costs) in 4Q as the likely cause of depressed margins. Even though 4Q profits were supported by a Rp78bn FX gain on AALI’s USD cash balances, net profits adjusted for one-off’s at Rp 219bn were down almost 60%, both q/q and versus our estimates.
High fertilizer inventories likely to carry margin pressures into*
FY09: *With urea prices down 50-60% from their peaks in 3QFY08, the question is how soon will cost pressures reverse? We note that AALI held Rp357 bn worth of fertilizer inventory at the end of FY08, up about 9x y/y and 50% q/q (detailed on page 2). We estimate the FY08 inventories constitute about 3 months consumption, and hence we worry that high inventory purchase prices carry margin pressures into 1QFY09.
We expect the stock to react negatively to the results: *AALI’s stock price was up 7% ahead of results, and we expect the gains to reverse on these numbers. We rate the stock Neutral, and our Rp 9,000 Dec FY09 DCF-derived price target values AALI using an M$1,575 CPO price (YTD actual 1,866) and a 22% cost of equity, implying a 10x FY09E PE. We see AALI as overvalued in the short term, unless CPO prices are likely to remain over M$2,000, which is a risk to our view that weak demand is likely to overshadow slowing supply growth in the near term.
FY08 profits below par, masked by one-off income: *AALI reported FY08 Net Profits of Rp 2.6 trn, including an Rp 403 bn (11% of PBT)nonrecurring income from sale of certain plantation assets. Adjusting for the nonrecurring item (which was expected), FY08A Net profits were 11% below our forecasts and about 9% below consensus.
4Q margin drop on high input costs: *4QFY08 revenues were in line, but EBITDA margins surprised at just 22% as production costs/T were about 35% higher than our forecast. Although AALI’s financial statements do not break costs down to the line item, we ascribe high fertilizer prices (about 31% of ex-factory costs) in 4Q as the likely cause of depressed margins. Even though 4Q profits were supported by a Rp78bn FX gain on AALI’s USD cash balances, net profits adjusted for one-off’s at Rp 219bn were down almost 60%, both q/q and versus our estimates.
High fertilizer inventories likely to carry margin pressures into*
FY09: *With urea prices down 50-60% from their peaks in 3QFY08, the question is how soon will cost pressures reverse? We note that AALI held Rp357 bn worth of fertilizer inventory at the end of FY08, up about 9x y/y and 50% q/q (detailed on page 2). We estimate the FY08 inventories constitute about 3 months consumption, and hence we worry that high inventory purchase prices carry margin pressures into 1QFY09.
We expect the stock to react negatively to the results: *AALI’s stock price was up 7% ahead of results, and we expect the gains to reverse on these numbers. We rate the stock Neutral, and our Rp 9,000 Dec FY09 DCF-derived price target values AALI using an M$1,575 CPO price (YTD actual 1,866) and a 22% cost of equity, implying a 10x FY09E PE. We see AALI as overvalued in the short term, unless CPO prices are likely to remain over M$2,000, which is a risk to our view that weak demand is likely to overshadow slowing supply growth in the near term.
CLSA Astra Agro (AALI IJ)
Astra Agro (AALI IJ) FY08 results, comment from Wilianto
Astra Agro net profit of Rp2.63tn in FY08 is 6% better than our forecast of Rp2.48tn. However, stripping off the one off gain from asset sales, core profit is 5% below our expectation.
Ebit in 4Q08 was sharply lower, down -65% qoq due to lower CPO price of Rp4,836/kg in 4Q08 vs. Rp7,363/kg in 3Q08. The low profitability in 4Q08 is mainly a function of lower CPO price.
Production remains relatively stable. CPO production is at 246k tons in 4Q08 vs. 241k in 3Q08. FFB production from nucleus plantation was slightly lower at 716k tons in 4Q08 vs. 732k tons in 3Q08.
Astra Agro booked Rp403bn (Rp282bn after tax) gain from asset sale. It sold 7k hectares of its rubber and palm oil estates to Adaro for US$60m in Apr08 but still keep the right to harvest until 2012. Astra Agro did not book the gain from asset sale until 4Q08.
Given CPO price has bounce from the low in 4Q08, we expect a recovery in earnings in 1Q09. However, as the average price in 2009 is likely to be much lower than Rp7,134/kg achieved in FY08, earnings will still be sharply lower in 2009 vs. 2008. We remain cautious on Astra Agro (AALI IJ - Rp13,000 - SELL).
Astra Agro net profit of Rp2.63tn in FY08 is 6% better than our forecast of Rp2.48tn. However, stripping off the one off gain from asset sales, core profit is 5% below our expectation.
Ebit in 4Q08 was sharply lower, down -65% qoq due to lower CPO price of Rp4,836/kg in 4Q08 vs. Rp7,363/kg in 3Q08. The low profitability in 4Q08 is mainly a function of lower CPO price.
Production remains relatively stable. CPO production is at 246k tons in 4Q08 vs. 241k in 3Q08. FFB production from nucleus plantation was slightly lower at 716k tons in 4Q08 vs. 732k tons in 3Q08.
Astra Agro booked Rp403bn (Rp282bn after tax) gain from asset sale. It sold 7k hectares of its rubber and palm oil estates to Adaro for US$60m in Apr08 but still keep the right to harvest until 2012. Astra Agro did not book the gain from asset sale until 4Q08.
Given CPO price has bounce from the low in 4Q08, we expect a recovery in earnings in 1Q09. However, as the average price in 2009 is likely to be much lower than Rp7,134/kg achieved in FY08, earnings will still be sharply lower in 2009 vs. 2008. We remain cautious on Astra Agro (AALI IJ - Rp13,000 - SELL).
CIMB Bank Negara Indonesia
Bank Negara Indonesia Company update - Needs time - by Mulya Chandra CFA
(BBNI IJ / BBNI.JK, NEUTRAL - Downgraded, Rp710 - Tgt. Rp870, Financial Services)
BNI is adopting a gradualist approach to a turnaround, unlike Mandiri three years ago. Thus, it could take more time to recover. Possibilities of further provisioning in 2009 remain, diminishing hopes of a quick P/L recovery. BNI has one of the lowest capital levels among peers, possibly prompting capital additions in the near term. We reduce our FY09-10 EPS estimates by 4-6% on adjustments to provisioning expenses. Our DDM target price falls to Rp870 from Rp920. Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform.
(BBNI IJ / BBNI.JK, NEUTRAL - Downgraded, Rp710 - Tgt. Rp870, Financial Services)
BNI is adopting a gradualist approach to a turnaround, unlike Mandiri three years ago. Thus, it could take more time to recover. Possibilities of further provisioning in 2009 remain, diminishing hopes of a quick P/L recovery. BNI has one of the lowest capital levels among peers, possibly prompting capital additions in the near term. We reduce our FY09-10 EPS estimates by 4-6% on adjustments to provisioning expenses. Our DDM target price falls to Rp870 from Rp920. Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform.
CIMB Astra Agro Lestari
Result note - Good headline on land gains - by Liliana Bambang
(AALI IJ / ALII.JK, UNDERPERFORM - Maintained, Rp13,000 - Tgt. Rp11,500, Plantations)
AALI's FY08 core earnings and EBIT are in line with our forecasts, but below consensus by 10%. In 4Q08, AALI booked a Rp403b gain for land settlement from Adaro for 7,163ha of plantation assets in South Kalimantan. This came as a surprise as management previously indicated that the gains would be booked over several years i.e. when the land is transferred. We have raised our earnings estimates as we adjust for weaker Rp/US$ assumptions. Maintain UNDERPERFORM on AALI due to expensive valuations and a lack of catalysts.
(AALI IJ / ALII.JK, UNDERPERFORM - Maintained, Rp13,000 - Tgt. Rp11,500, Plantations)
AALI's FY08 core earnings and EBIT are in line with our forecasts, but below consensus by 10%. In 4Q08, AALI booked a Rp403b gain for land settlement from Adaro for 7,163ha of plantation assets in South Kalimantan. This came as a surprise as management previously indicated that the gains would be booked over several years i.e. when the land is transferred. We have raised our earnings estimates as we adjust for weaker Rp/US$ assumptions. Maintain UNDERPERFORM on AALI due to expensive valuations and a lack of catalysts.
CLSA Banking Update
Mandiri (BMRI IJ) to restructure Rp3tn of problem loans
According to Director, Abdul Rahman, loans that will be restructured are still performing but experiencing some difficulties due to drop in issuance of L/C and weak external demand
Sectors affected are mainly export-import related ranging from textile, pulp and paper, to shoe manufacturers
Restructuring will be mild i.e. in the form of maturity extension, usually one year, carrying the same interest cost
Nico’s comment: It is unclear at this point whether there will be downgrades or additional provisioning as these loans could be classified as non-performing already. In any case, Mandiri appears to pre-empt this move by moving provisions higher for category 2-5 loans in recent quarters. Maintain U-PF.
Bank Rakyat (BBRI IJ) - Local governor to propose Rp4tn loans from BRI to fund Lapindo
Minarak Lapindo Jaya is reported no longer able to compensate the victims from Lapindo mudflow, while state budget is also no longer available
Therefore, governor proposes BRI extend loans to Minarak Lapindo Jaya in the amount of Rp4tn to help muflow victims
Nico’s comment: Commercially, this is impossible to do as Minarak Lapindo Jaya does not have the capacity or collateral to take out Rp4tn worth of loans. In addition, Rp4tn is equivalent to 21% of BRI’s total capital, which has exceeded the legal lending limit. Share price weakness on this news should be a buying opportunity. Maintain O-PF.
According to Director, Abdul Rahman, loans that will be restructured are still performing but experiencing some difficulties due to drop in issuance of L/C and weak external demand
Sectors affected are mainly export-import related ranging from textile, pulp and paper, to shoe manufacturers
Restructuring will be mild i.e. in the form of maturity extension, usually one year, carrying the same interest cost
Nico’s comment: It is unclear at this point whether there will be downgrades or additional provisioning as these loans could be classified as non-performing already. In any case, Mandiri appears to pre-empt this move by moving provisions higher for category 2-5 loans in recent quarters. Maintain U-PF.
Bank Rakyat (BBRI IJ) - Local governor to propose Rp4tn loans from BRI to fund Lapindo
Minarak Lapindo Jaya is reported no longer able to compensate the victims from Lapindo mudflow, while state budget is also no longer available
Therefore, governor proposes BRI extend loans to Minarak Lapindo Jaya in the amount of Rp4tn to help muflow victims
Nico’s comment: Commercially, this is impossible to do as Minarak Lapindo Jaya does not have the capacity or collateral to take out Rp4tn worth of loans. In addition, Rp4tn is equivalent to 21% of BRI’s total capital, which has exceeded the legal lending limit. Share price weakness on this news should be a buying opportunity. Maintain O-PF.
CLSA Big Report on PGAS, Let The Gas (and cash) Flow
Research Today: big report on PGAS, let the gas (and cash) flow
Our tenacious hardworking analyst Swati has just written a big report on Perusahaan Gas (PGAS IJ). This is one of our top calls in Indonesia. PGAS provides both robust cash flows with LT growth. Expect net profit to triple over 2008-12. PGAS also offers high ROE (more than 40%) and decent div yields (4.6% CL this year). BUY with TP of Rp2,800.
Low gas prices area a risk only if oil falls below US$25/bbl.
Reasons to like PGAS:
(1) Domestic oil production has been declining since 2000 after peaking at 1.67mbpd in 1991 due to the natural maturation of producing fields and a slower reserve replacement rate.
(2) Indonesia needs more gas. This is the future.
(3) More than 70% of natural gas reserves are offshore. As a solution, PGAS’ South Sumatra – West Java (SSWJ) pipeline connects supply in South Sumatra to demand in West Java.
(4) Gas is both cheaper and cleaner than diesel and fuel oil. Gas represents a 46% discount to diesel at US$40/bbl oil.
(5) PGAS dominates gas distribution in Indonesia with a 93% market share.
(6) State-owned power company PLN is in urgent need of gas and only PGAS has the ability to provide the gas to PLN via SSWJ pipelines.
(7) PLN may have a better bargaining position with PGAS in 2011 when their coal-fired power plants start to come on stream in 2010-11. But for now, gas demand from PLN will help to ensure volume stability.
(8) PGAS’ margin is already the widest amongst its Asian peers, but cheap gas contract + unregulated pricing structures mean margins will continue to expand until 2016CL.
Our tenacious hardworking analyst Swati has just written a big report on Perusahaan Gas (PGAS IJ). This is one of our top calls in Indonesia. PGAS provides both robust cash flows with LT growth. Expect net profit to triple over 2008-12. PGAS also offers high ROE (more than 40%) and decent div yields (4.6% CL this year). BUY with TP of Rp2,800.
Low gas prices area a risk only if oil falls below US$25/bbl.
Reasons to like PGAS:
(1) Domestic oil production has been declining since 2000 after peaking at 1.67mbpd in 1991 due to the natural maturation of producing fields and a slower reserve replacement rate.
(2) Indonesia needs more gas. This is the future.
(3) More than 70% of natural gas reserves are offshore. As a solution, PGAS’ South Sumatra – West Java (SSWJ) pipeline connects supply in South Sumatra to demand in West Java.
(4) Gas is both cheaper and cleaner than diesel and fuel oil. Gas represents a 46% discount to diesel at US$40/bbl oil.
(5) PGAS dominates gas distribution in Indonesia with a 93% market share.
(6) State-owned power company PLN is in urgent need of gas and only PGAS has the ability to provide the gas to PLN via SSWJ pipelines.
(7) PLN may have a better bargaining position with PGAS in 2011 when their coal-fired power plants start to come on stream in 2010-11. But for now, gas demand from PLN will help to ensure volume stability.
(8) PGAS’ margin is already the widest amongst its Asian peers, but cheap gas contract + unregulated pricing structures mean margins will continue to expand until 2016CL.
Bloomberg Sugar Reaches 1-Week High as Deficit Widens, Crude Oil Rallies
By Shruti Date Singh
Feb. 25 (Bloomberg) -- Sugar futures rose to a one-week high on signs of a widening production gap and speculation that higher oil prices will encourage cane processors to make more ethanol rather than sweetener.
Global sugar demand will exceed output by 4.27 million metric tons in the year ending Sept. 30, up from a November forecast of 3.6 million, the London-based International Sugar Organization said yesterday. India may import 2 million tons this year as the country’s production falls 31 percent to 19.9 million tons, ISO said. Crude oil rose as much as 7.1 percent today.
“Any commodity that has a potential deficit is going to outperform other commodities,” said Adam Klopfenstein, a senior market strategist for MF Global unit Lind-Waldock in Chicago. “We have crude oil trading higher. It’s an outside proxy for the sugar market on the alternative energy play.” more...
Feb. 25 (Bloomberg) -- Sugar futures rose to a one-week high on signs of a widening production gap and speculation that higher oil prices will encourage cane processors to make more ethanol rather than sweetener.
Global sugar demand will exceed output by 4.27 million metric tons in the year ending Sept. 30, up from a November forecast of 3.6 million, the London-based International Sugar Organization said yesterday. India may import 2 million tons this year as the country’s production falls 31 percent to 19.9 million tons, ISO said. Crude oil rose as much as 7.1 percent today.
“Any commodity that has a potential deficit is going to outperform other commodities,” said Adam Klopfenstein, a senior market strategist for MF Global unit Lind-Waldock in Chicago. “We have crude oil trading higher. It’s an outside proxy for the sugar market on the alternative energy play.” more...
Bloomberg Corn Rises as High Fertilizer Costs May Reduce U.S. Planting
By Jeff Wilson
Feb. 25 (Bloomberg) -- Corn rose for the third straight day on speculation that farmers in the U.S., the world’s largest producer and exporter, will plant less this year because of high fertilizer costs.
This week, the Department of Agriculture probably will reduce its forecast for corn acreage from earlier this month, a Bloomberg survey showed. Plantings may fall to 85.1 million acres from almost 86 million last year and 88 million projected on Feb. 12, according to the average of 14 analysts surveyed.
“Expectations for the USDA to estimate smaller planted acreage in 2009 is giving corn a boost,” said Dale Durchholz, a senior grain analyst for AgriVisor LLC in Bloomington, Illinois. “People are trying to figure out what farmers will ultimately plant.” more...
Feb. 25 (Bloomberg) -- Corn rose for the third straight day on speculation that farmers in the U.S., the world’s largest producer and exporter, will plant less this year because of high fertilizer costs.
This week, the Department of Agriculture probably will reduce its forecast for corn acreage from earlier this month, a Bloomberg survey showed. Plantings may fall to 85.1 million acres from almost 86 million last year and 88 million projected on Feb. 12, according to the average of 14 analysts surveyed.
“Expectations for the USDA to estimate smaller planted acreage in 2009 is giving corn a boost,” said Dale Durchholz, a senior grain analyst for AgriVisor LLC in Bloomington, Illinois. “People are trying to figure out what farmers will ultimately plant.” more...
Palm oil futures rise to 1-week high on export data
February 26, 2009 3:00 GMT+8
Malaysian palm futures rose 1.2 per cent yesterday to finish at a one-week high on the back of good export data and helped by a rally in global stock markets, but the upside was capped by profit-taking, traders said. “Exports are encouraging. We have seen some buying because of that, but people who have heard export numbers on Tuesday have started to get out slowly,” said a trader at a Kuala Lumpur-based brokerage firm.
The benchmark May contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange rose RM23, or 1.2 per cent, to RM1,894 (US$516) per tonne, after rising as high as US1,912 early.
Other traded contracts rose between RM20 and RM27. Overall volume was 11,509 lots of 25 tonnes each.
Exports of Malaysian palm oil products for February 1-25 rose 5 per cent to 1,000,678 tonnes, from 952,478 tonnes shipped between January 1-25, cargo surveyor Intertek Testing Services said yesterday.
Another cargo surveyor Societe Generale de Surveillance estimated exports of Malaysian palm oil products for February 1-25 to have fallen 0.7 per cent to 1,009,236 tonnes from 1,016,477 tonnes shipped between Jan 1 and 25.
The same trader said he is now expecting exports for the whole month to reach about 1.2 million tonnes. “So stocks will go down. These are things supporting the market but when prices move above RM1,900, people start to be a bit cautious,” he said.
The price of the tropical oil, which is used in various products from soap to biodiesel, briefly broke the major resistance level of RM2,000 last week, but failed to hold above it on concerns about demand.
Bloomberg U.S. Sets a 6-Month Deadline for New Bank Capital
By Rebecca Christie and Robert Schmidt
Feb. 25 (Bloomberg) -- The government set a six-month deadline for the biggest 19 U.S. banks to raise any new capital deemed necessary after a mandatory review of their balance sheets.
The regulators will complete their so-called stress tests by the end of April, which will identify how much extra cushion each bank will need, the Treasury said today in Washington. Lenders will have six months to raise private capital or accept government funds and the conditions that come with it.
“While the vast majority of U.S. banking organizations have capital in excess of the amounts required to be considered well capitalized, the uncertain economic environment has eroded confidence in the amount and quality of capital held by some,” the Treasury said, announcing guidelines for new bank reviews.
Any new government money will come in the form of convertible preferred securities, which would acquire voting rights if converted into common stock. U.S. officials, speaking to reporters after the announcement, said there would be no limit on how much money the program could provide banks, raising questions whether the Obama administration will need to ask Congress for more bailout funds. more...
Feb. 25 (Bloomberg) -- The government set a six-month deadline for the biggest 19 U.S. banks to raise any new capital deemed necessary after a mandatory review of their balance sheets.
The regulators will complete their so-called stress tests by the end of April, which will identify how much extra cushion each bank will need, the Treasury said today in Washington. Lenders will have six months to raise private capital or accept government funds and the conditions that come with it.
“While the vast majority of U.S. banking organizations have capital in excess of the amounts required to be considered well capitalized, the uncertain economic environment has eroded confidence in the amount and quality of capital held by some,” the Treasury said, announcing guidelines for new bank reviews.
Any new government money will come in the form of convertible preferred securities, which would acquire voting rights if converted into common stock. U.S. officials, speaking to reporters after the announcement, said there would be no limit on how much money the program could provide banks, raising questions whether the Obama administration will need to ask Congress for more bailout funds. more...
CNN Money Oil prices up, but off their peak
* Julianne Pepitone, CNNMoney.com contributing writer
* Wednesday February 25, 2009, 4:38 pm EST
Oil gained more than $2 a barrel Wednesday, after a government report showed that while supplies of gasoline fell much more than expected, crude stockpiles continue to grow amid sluggish demand.
Light sweet crude settled $2.54 higher to $42.50 a barrel after reaching an intraday high of $42.78 earlier in the session.
Oil traded up 59 cents to $40.55 just prior to the release of the Energy Information Administration's weekly inventory report.
Stockpiles of gasoline fell by 3.4 million barrels in the week ended Feb. 20, the EIA said.
That's in the lower half of the average range for this time of year. Analysts expected a decrease of 300,000 barrels, according to a consensus estimate of industry analysts surveyed by Platts, a global energy information provider.
"The market was really impressed with the shocking gasoline number, which caused an initial bullish jump," said Phil Flynn, senior analyst at Alaron Trading. more...
* Wednesday February 25, 2009, 4:38 pm EST
Oil gained more than $2 a barrel Wednesday, after a government report showed that while supplies of gasoline fell much more than expected, crude stockpiles continue to grow amid sluggish demand.
Light sweet crude settled $2.54 higher to $42.50 a barrel after reaching an intraday high of $42.78 earlier in the session.
Oil traded up 59 cents to $40.55 just prior to the release of the Energy Information Administration's weekly inventory report.
Stockpiles of gasoline fell by 3.4 million barrels in the week ended Feb. 20, the EIA said.
That's in the lower half of the average range for this time of year. Analysts expected a decrease of 300,000 barrels, according to a consensus estimate of industry analysts surveyed by Platts, a global energy information provider.
"The market was really impressed with the shocking gasoline number, which caused an initial bullish jump," said Phil Flynn, senior analyst at Alaron Trading. more...
Rabu, 25 Februari 2009
Press Release Laporan Keuangan AALI tahun 2008
Laporan Keuangan AALI tahun 2008
Jakarta – Hari ini PT Astra Agro Lestari Tbk. (AALI) mempublikasikan laporan keuangan
konsolidasiannya yang telah diaudit untuk tahun buku yang berakhir pada bulan Desember 2008. Dalam laporan keuangannya tersebut, AALI membukukan Pendapatan Bersih konsolidasi sebesar RP 8,16 triliun meningkat sebesar 36,9% dibandingkan periode yang sama tahun sebelumnya yang sebesar Rp 5,96 triliun.
Tingginya harga CPO dunia, terutama di periode sembilan bulan awal tahun 2008 lalu, menyebabkan AALI masih dapat membukukan Laba Bersih konsolidasi sebesar Rp 2,63 triliun meningkat sebesar 33,3% dibandingkan periode yang sama tahun sebelumnya sebesar Rp1,97 triliun. Harga rata-rata penjualan CPO perseroan di tahun 2008 adalah sebesar Rp 7.134,- per kg atau naik sebesar 18,9% dibandingkan tahun sebelumnya sebesar Rp 6.002,- per kg. Total volume penjualan CPO AALI sepanjang tahun 2008 adalah 970.568 ton atau meningkat 13,1% dibandingkan tahun sebelumnya sebesar 857.824 ton.
Dari total volume penjualan CPO tahun 2008 sebesar 88,6% diserap oleh pasar domestik sedangkan sisanya adalah ekspor. Sepanjang tahun 2008, AALI memproduksi 981.538 ton CPO meningkat sebesar 6,6% dibandingkan produksi tahun sebelumnya sebesar 920.613 ton. Selain itu, AALI juga menambah luasan areanya dengan menanam seluas 22.263 hektar sehingga di akhir tahun 2008 total area yang dikelola AALI adalah seluas 250.883 hektar.
Jakarta, 25 Pebruari 2009
Public Relations
PT Astra Agro Lestari Tbk
Tjahyo Dwi Ariantono
Tlp : (021) 461-6555
Fax : (021) 461-6689
PT ASTRA AGRO LESTARI Tbk
Jakarta – Hari ini PT Astra Agro Lestari Tbk. (AALI) mempublikasikan laporan keuangan
konsolidasiannya yang telah diaudit untuk tahun buku yang berakhir pada bulan Desember 2008. Dalam laporan keuangannya tersebut, AALI membukukan Pendapatan Bersih konsolidasi sebesar RP 8,16 triliun meningkat sebesar 36,9% dibandingkan periode yang sama tahun sebelumnya yang sebesar Rp 5,96 triliun.
Tingginya harga CPO dunia, terutama di periode sembilan bulan awal tahun 2008 lalu, menyebabkan AALI masih dapat membukukan Laba Bersih konsolidasi sebesar Rp 2,63 triliun meningkat sebesar 33,3% dibandingkan periode yang sama tahun sebelumnya sebesar Rp1,97 triliun. Harga rata-rata penjualan CPO perseroan di tahun 2008 adalah sebesar Rp 7.134,- per kg atau naik sebesar 18,9% dibandingkan tahun sebelumnya sebesar Rp 6.002,- per kg. Total volume penjualan CPO AALI sepanjang tahun 2008 adalah 970.568 ton atau meningkat 13,1% dibandingkan tahun sebelumnya sebesar 857.824 ton.
Dari total volume penjualan CPO tahun 2008 sebesar 88,6% diserap oleh pasar domestik sedangkan sisanya adalah ekspor. Sepanjang tahun 2008, AALI memproduksi 981.538 ton CPO meningkat sebesar 6,6% dibandingkan produksi tahun sebelumnya sebesar 920.613 ton. Selain itu, AALI juga menambah luasan areanya dengan menanam seluas 22.263 hektar sehingga di akhir tahun 2008 total area yang dikelola AALI adalah seluas 250.883 hektar.
Jakarta, 25 Pebruari 2009
Public Relations
PT Astra Agro Lestari Tbk
Tjahyo Dwi Ariantono
Tlp : (021) 461-6555
Fax : (021) 461-6689
PT ASTRA AGRO LESTARI Tbk
IQP PT Telekomunikasi Indonesia Tbk
IQP, (25/2) - PT Telekomunikasi Indonesia Tbk berencana mengakuisisi perusahaan terlekomunikasi lokal dalam waktu dekat. Menurut Direktur Utama Telekomunikasi Indonesia Rinaldi Firmansyah, saat ini pihaknya belum bisa mempublikasikan nama perusahaan yang sedang diincar perseroan tersebut.
"Tapi, kami harapkan akuisisi selesai pada kuartal II-2009," ujarnya saat acara BUMN Executive Breakfast Meeting dengan tema "Ekonomi Outlook 2009" di Wisma Antara Jakarta, 25 Februari 2009. Rinaldi mengakui, sekarang ini perseroan masih dalam tahap negosiasi untuk menentukan diharga berapa perusahaan tersebut rela diakuisisi Telkom. "Jadi, belum bisa saya beri tahu nilainya berapa," kata dia seperti dikutip vivanews.
"Tapi, kami harapkan akuisisi selesai pada kuartal II-2009," ujarnya saat acara BUMN Executive Breakfast Meeting dengan tema "Ekonomi Outlook 2009" di Wisma Antara Jakarta, 25 Februari 2009. Rinaldi mengakui, sekarang ini perseroan masih dalam tahap negosiasi untuk menentukan diharga berapa perusahaan tersebut rela diakuisisi Telkom. "Jadi, belum bisa saya beri tahu nilainya berapa," kata dia seperti dikutip vivanews.
Bloomberg Astra Agro's 2008 Profit Rises 34% as Palm Oil Sales Increase
Astra Agro's 2008 Profit Rises 34% as Palm Oil Sales Increase 2009-02-25 09:37:37.55 GMT
By Arijit Ghosh
Feb. 25 (Bloomberg) -- PT Astra Agro Lestari, Indonesia's largest publicly traded plantation company, said profit rose 34 percent last year. Net income rose to 2.63 trillion rupiah ($220 million) in the year ended Dec. 31, from 1.97 trillion rupiah in the same period a year earlier, the company said in a filing to the Indonesia Stock Exchange today.
Link to Company News:{AALI IJ
Top Stories:{TOP
IQP Astra Graphia
IQP, (25/2) - Laba bersih per desember 2008 Astra graphia turun 13,30 persen menjadi Rp62,48 miliar dibanding periode sama tahun sebelumnya yang meraih laba bersih Rp72,07 miliar. Keterangan rabu sore menyebutkan penjualan bersih naik jadi Rp1,027 triliun dari Rp725,58 miliar dan laba kotor naik jadi Rp326.41 miliar dari Rp265,31 miliar.Laba usaha juga naik jadi Rp104,91 miliar dari Rp95,04 miliar. Namun beban lain-lain naik jadi Rp23,93 miliar dari Rp5,72 miliar sebelumnya sehingga laba sebelum pajak turun menjadi Rp83,91 miliar dari Rp95,27 miliar.
CIMB BBCA An Excellent Deposit-Taker, Upgrade idr3,425
Reaffirms deposit-taking business. Recent cases of global investment banks’ failures linked to their inability to take deposits have made BCA’s management even more committed to its current focus. BCA has done an excellent job as a deposit bank, with its deposit market share rising, particularly for low-cost deposits (Dec 05: 10.9%; Sep 09: 13.0%). Its liquidity outlook for 2009 remains bright, reinforced by additional liquidity of Rp11.5tr from maturing government bonds (or 11% of loans).
NIM down, but profit might not. BCA’s balance sheet has been structured such that its NIM correlates positively with SBI rates. Although we expect NIM to ease on declining SBI rates (by 1bp for every 50bp rate cut under our simulation), we believe its net profit is unlikely to contract, just as in 2007 (NIM -1.7%, net profit +5.8%). Loan growth and loan-deposit ratio management should be able to counter the impact. Variable-rate bonds have also gone down to make up only 12% of earning assets, from 20% at Dec 06. Furthermore, excessive provisioning coverage of 350% (vs. an average of 211% in the last 15 quarters) offers some buffer. If not consumed by NPLs, the coverage could translate into Rp316bn of write-backs for every 50% pt of lower coverage, ceteris paribus. BCA also appears eligible for an additional 5% tax rate cut, potentially contributing some Rp380bn.
Share performance lags peers. BCA has underperformed its big banking peers and JAKFIN by 3-25% YTD, mainly on fears of NIM decline. We believe such worries are unwarranted as profits should continue to grow. BCA’s deposit-taking strength is particularly commendable in the current liquidity-sensitive environment.
We upgrade it to Outperform from Neutral on the unwarranted correction. Our target
price remains Rp3,425, still using DDM valuation with a discount rate of 16.4%.
NIM down, but profit might not. BCA’s balance sheet has been structured such that its NIM correlates positively with SBI rates. Although we expect NIM to ease on declining SBI rates (by 1bp for every 50bp rate cut under our simulation), we believe its net profit is unlikely to contract, just as in 2007 (NIM -1.7%, net profit +5.8%). Loan growth and loan-deposit ratio management should be able to counter the impact. Variable-rate bonds have also gone down to make up only 12% of earning assets, from 20% at Dec 06. Furthermore, excessive provisioning coverage of 350% (vs. an average of 211% in the last 15 quarters) offers some buffer. If not consumed by NPLs, the coverage could translate into Rp316bn of write-backs for every 50% pt of lower coverage, ceteris paribus. BCA also appears eligible for an additional 5% tax rate cut, potentially contributing some Rp380bn.
Share performance lags peers. BCA has underperformed its big banking peers and JAKFIN by 3-25% YTD, mainly on fears of NIM decline. We believe such worries are unwarranted as profits should continue to grow. BCA’s deposit-taking strength is particularly commendable in the current liquidity-sensitive environment.
We upgrade it to Outperform from Neutral on the unwarranted correction. Our target
price remains Rp3,425, still using DDM valuation with a discount rate of 16.4%.
WIKA Rampungkan Akuisisi Tambang Semester I-2009
Jakarta - PT Wijaya Karya (WIKA) siap merealisasikan akuisisi perusahaan tambang pada semester pertama 2009. Akuisisi tersebut akan didanai 100% dari dana internal. Demikian disampaikan Direktur Keuangan WIKA Ganda Kusuma disela-sela BUMN Executive Breakfast Meeting "Economic Outlook 2009" di Wisma Antara, Jalan Medan Merdeka Selatan, Jakarta, Rabu (25/2/2009).
"Targetnya semester 1 (akuisisi) tuntas, proses due diligence sudah selesai. Dana akuisisi 100% dari internal," katanya. Tahun lalu, perseroan juga mengakuisisi perusahaan Catur Insan P Pertiwi yang kini berubah nama menjadi Wijaya Karya Insan Pertiwi. Ganda menambahkan, pada akhir 2008 perseroan juga memenangkan pasokan batubara ke PLTU Tanjung Jati B untuk 5 tahun ke depan. Berdasarkan kesepakatan, setiap tahunnya akan dilakukan 4 kali pengiriman (shipment) dengan kapasitas 65.000 ton/shipment. "Batubaranya dari Kalimantan Timur, dananya juga dari internal," katanya. more...
Obama vows to lead US from dire 'day of reckoning'
WASHINGTON (AP) -- Standing before the nation on a "day of reckoning," President Barack Obama summoned politicians and public alike Tuesday night to forge a path out of the worst economic disaster in a quarter-century by embracing shared sacrifice and costly new endeavors to improve health care, schools and the environment."The time to take charge of our future is here," Obama declared in his first address to a joint session of Congress, watched by millions of worried Americans on television and the Internet.
Adding words of reassurance, he said, "Tonight I want every American to know this: We will rebuild, we will recover, and the United States of America will emerge stronger than before."
Obama had to wade his way into a chamber packed with lawmakers eager to welcome the nation's first black president into a Capitol built by slaves. The House gallery included a special section hosted by first lady Michelle Obama, where guests served as living symbols of the president's goals. Cramming the floor was virtually the entire leadership of the federal government, including Supreme Court justices, led by Ruth Bader Ginsberg, back on the bench only this week after cancer surgery, and all but one Cabinet member, held away in case disaster struck. Obama's 52-minute speech was interrupted 61 times by applause. more...
Bloomberg Europe Commodity Day Ahead: China Buys Zinc, Invests in Peru
Feb. 25 (Bloomberg) -- China, the world’s biggest producer of zinc, agreed today to buy $168 million of the metal from domestic smelters, and plans to increase purchases to almost a month’s worth of national production, a company executive said.
Mining companies including Aluminum Corp. of China, China Minmetals Corp. and Shougang Corp. will invest $2.78 billion this year in Peru’s mining industry, doubling last year’s investments, as they seek copper and iron-ore deposits, Energy & Mines Minister Pedro Sanchez Gamarra said.
INDUSTRIAL METALS, MINING
China Said to Plan to Raise Zinc Purchases to a Month’s Output. China, the world’s biggest producer of zinc, agreed today to buy $168 million of the metal from domestic smelters, and plans to increase purchases to almost a month’s worth of national production, a company executive said.
Peru’s Mining Industry Will Double Spending in 2009. Peru’s mining industry will double investments this year as companies develop copper and iron-ore deposits, Energy & Mines Minister Pedro Sanchez Gamarra said. Mining companies including Aluminum Corp. of China, China Minmetals Corp. and Shougang Corp. will invest $2.78 billion this year, up from $1.4 billion in 2008, Sanchez told a congressional panel today. more...
Mining companies including Aluminum Corp. of China, China Minmetals Corp. and Shougang Corp. will invest $2.78 billion this year in Peru’s mining industry, doubling last year’s investments, as they seek copper and iron-ore deposits, Energy & Mines Minister Pedro Sanchez Gamarra said.
INDUSTRIAL METALS, MINING
China Said to Plan to Raise Zinc Purchases to a Month’s Output. China, the world’s biggest producer of zinc, agreed today to buy $168 million of the metal from domestic smelters, and plans to increase purchases to almost a month’s worth of national production, a company executive said.
Peru’s Mining Industry Will Double Spending in 2009. Peru’s mining industry will double investments this year as companies develop copper and iron-ore deposits, Energy & Mines Minister Pedro Sanchez Gamarra said. Mining companies including Aluminum Corp. of China, China Minmetals Corp. and Shougang Corp. will invest $2.78 billion this year, up from $1.4 billion in 2008, Sanchez told a congressional panel today. more...
Bloomberg Rubber Advances to One-Week High as Weaker Yen Boosts Appeal
Feb. 25 (Bloomberg) -- Natural rubber futures climbed to the highest in a week after the Japanese currency reached a three- month low against the dollar, making yen-denominated contracts more attractive to investors.
The yen weakened to 96.93 against the dollar yesterday, the weakest level since Nov. 25 as Japan’s deteriorating economy eroded the currency’s appeal as a refuge from the global financial crisis. Futures in Tokyo often move in the opposite direction to the yen as rubber trades globally in dollars.
Prices advanced as the biggest gain in U.S. stocks in a month yesterday eased concern a worsening economic slump may weaken demand for the commodity used in car tires. Stocks halted a six-day decline after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke’s statement that banks need not be nationalized helped lift equities from their lowest valuations in two decades.
Rubber for August delivery, the most-active contract, gained as much as 6.6 percent to the highest since Feb. 18 before trading at 139.8 yen a kilogram ($1,450 a metric ton) on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange at 9:53 a.m. local time.
To contact the reporters on this story: Aya Takada in Tokyo atakada2@bloomberg.net;
The yen weakened to 96.93 against the dollar yesterday, the weakest level since Nov. 25 as Japan’s deteriorating economy eroded the currency’s appeal as a refuge from the global financial crisis. Futures in Tokyo often move in the opposite direction to the yen as rubber trades globally in dollars.
Prices advanced as the biggest gain in U.S. stocks in a month yesterday eased concern a worsening economic slump may weaken demand for the commodity used in car tires. Stocks halted a six-day decline after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke’s statement that banks need not be nationalized helped lift equities from their lowest valuations in two decades.
Rubber for August delivery, the most-active contract, gained as much as 6.6 percent to the highest since Feb. 18 before trading at 139.8 yen a kilogram ($1,450 a metric ton) on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange at 9:53 a.m. local time.
To contact the reporters on this story: Aya Takada in Tokyo atakada2@bloomberg.net;
Lautandhana from Daily Update
Trading Counter; PTBA dan UNTR
Semen Gresik (SMGR) cari utang US$300 juta CIMA menjadi salah satu target akuisisi
PT Semen Gresik Tbk menjajaki pinjaman US$300 juta atau setara Rp3,57 triliun untuk membiayai akuisisi perusahaan semen asal Malaysia dan Filipina. Eksekutif yang mengetahui rencana itu menuturkan Credit Suisse, penasihat keuangan Semen Gresik dalam akuisisi itu, memperkirakan BUMN semen itu mampu mengakuisisi sebuah perusahaan semen senilai US$150 juta-US$250 juta.
Credit Suisse, ujarnya, merekomendasikan dua perusahaan semen dari Filipina dan satu lainnya dari Malaysia yaitu Cement Industries of Malaysia Berhad (CIMA). Semen Gresik berencana membeli perusahaan semen di Asia karena ingin menggenjot kapasitas produksi. Wakil Direktur Utama Semen Gresik Heru S. Adhiningrat, ketika dikonfirmasi mengenai pencarian utang itu, tidak membantah. Dia menuturkan Semen Gresik pekan lalu melaksanakan non-deal roadshow ke London dan Edinburgh, Inggris, dan Las Vegas, AS.
Dalam roadshow itu, Semen Gresik memperoleh masukan dari pemodal agar tetap melanjutkan rencana akuisisi itu daripada harus membangun pabrik baru dan membutuhkan waktu hingga 3 tahun.
Bukit Asam (PTBA) akan bentuk anak usaha
PT Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam Tbk akan membentuk anak usaha baru yang fokus pada perdagangan batu bara ritel, yang diperkirakan dapat terealisasi pada tahun ini. Sekarang dalam tahap kajian oleh konsultan. Pembentukan anak usaha baru ini merupakan salah satu opsi yang bisa ditempuh, selain menggabungkan unit usaha tersebut dengan anak usaha yang sudah ada. Anak usaha itu dibentuk dengan tujuan untuk meningkatkan efisiensi perseroan.
Semen Gresik (SMGR) cari utang US$300 juta CIMA menjadi salah satu target akuisisi
PT Semen Gresik Tbk menjajaki pinjaman US$300 juta atau setara Rp3,57 triliun untuk membiayai akuisisi perusahaan semen asal Malaysia dan Filipina. Eksekutif yang mengetahui rencana itu menuturkan Credit Suisse, penasihat keuangan Semen Gresik dalam akuisisi itu, memperkirakan BUMN semen itu mampu mengakuisisi sebuah perusahaan semen senilai US$150 juta-US$250 juta.
Credit Suisse, ujarnya, merekomendasikan dua perusahaan semen dari Filipina dan satu lainnya dari Malaysia yaitu Cement Industries of Malaysia Berhad (CIMA). Semen Gresik berencana membeli perusahaan semen di Asia karena ingin menggenjot kapasitas produksi. Wakil Direktur Utama Semen Gresik Heru S. Adhiningrat, ketika dikonfirmasi mengenai pencarian utang itu, tidak membantah. Dia menuturkan Semen Gresik pekan lalu melaksanakan non-deal roadshow ke London dan Edinburgh, Inggris, dan Las Vegas, AS.
Dalam roadshow itu, Semen Gresik memperoleh masukan dari pemodal agar tetap melanjutkan rencana akuisisi itu daripada harus membangun pabrik baru dan membutuhkan waktu hingga 3 tahun.
Bukit Asam (PTBA) akan bentuk anak usaha
PT Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam Tbk akan membentuk anak usaha baru yang fokus pada perdagangan batu bara ritel, yang diperkirakan dapat terealisasi pada tahun ini. Sekarang dalam tahap kajian oleh konsultan. Pembentukan anak usaha baru ini merupakan salah satu opsi yang bisa ditempuh, selain menggabungkan unit usaha tersebut dengan anak usaha yang sudah ada. Anak usaha itu dibentuk dengan tujuan untuk meningkatkan efisiensi perseroan.
Mandiri Sekuritas Bukit Asam
Bukit Asam: PLN to cancel contract for coal priced above Rp750k/ton, no impact for PTBA (PTBA, Rp7,550, Buy, TP: Rp9,380)
Head of PLB primary energy unit, Nasri Sebayang is threatening to cancel coal purchases contracts of coal if priced above average budgeted coal price of Rp750,000/ton. Bukit Asam in November 2008, made agreement to Indonesia Power, a PLN subsidiary, to supply 6.1mn tons of coal in 2009 (half of their 2009 annual output)at Rp884,000/ton. Indonesia Power, subsidiary of PLN, made independent decision of their contracts. Therefore we see no impacts to Bukit Asam. We have a Buy recommendation for PTBA with Ro9,380 target price. At Rp7,550, PTBA is traded at 8.3x 2008 PER, and 6.4x 2009 PER to our estimates.
Head of PLB primary energy unit, Nasri Sebayang is threatening to cancel coal purchases contracts of coal if priced above average budgeted coal price of Rp750,000/ton. Bukit Asam in November 2008, made agreement to Indonesia Power, a PLN subsidiary, to supply 6.1mn tons of coal in 2009 (half of their 2009 annual output)at Rp884,000/ton. Indonesia Power, subsidiary of PLN, made independent decision of their contracts. Therefore we see no impacts to Bukit Asam. We have a Buy recommendation for PTBA with Ro9,380 target price. At Rp7,550, PTBA is traded at 8.3x 2008 PER, and 6.4x 2009 PER to our estimates.
Mandiri Sekuritas Bank Negara Indonesia: a visit to SKC (BBNI, Rp720, Buy, TP: Rp1,000)
We visited Bank BNI’s small business center (SKC) at Bekasi, Eastern Jakarta yesterday. This center focuses on extending loans below Rp10bn and has total loan exposure of Rp470bn at end Dec08 offered at around 15-16% p.a.
BNI targets loans growth this year to be derived mostly from small sized loans as this type of loans are believed to be resilient during economic crisis. Our visit supported the argument. Even though the NPL at this center is relatively high at 5.2%, the outlook is encouraging as the debtors are mostly cooperatives. Moreover, selling the loan collateral is easy as its loan collateral value is relatively small.
The center’s NPL is mainly derived from developer of low cost housing, trader of scrap steel, plastic and textile. This year, the center is targeted to book additional Rp200bn of new loans, 50% of which should be extended to loans below Rp1bn. In Jan09 only, the center managed to book additional loans of over Rp20bn.
We like BNI’s transparency and believe that its strategy to focus on small sized loans to be appropriate given prolong economic crisis. Currently, Bank BNI is trading at 2009F P/BV of 0.6x and PER09F of 4.8x. We maintained our buy recommendation on the counter.
BNI targets loans growth this year to be derived mostly from small sized loans as this type of loans are believed to be resilient during economic crisis. Our visit supported the argument. Even though the NPL at this center is relatively high at 5.2%, the outlook is encouraging as the debtors are mostly cooperatives. Moreover, selling the loan collateral is easy as its loan collateral value is relatively small.
The center’s NPL is mainly derived from developer of low cost housing, trader of scrap steel, plastic and textile. This year, the center is targeted to book additional Rp200bn of new loans, 50% of which should be extended to loans below Rp1bn. In Jan09 only, the center managed to book additional loans of over Rp20bn.
We like BNI’s transparency and believe that its strategy to focus on small sized loans to be appropriate given prolong economic crisis. Currently, Bank BNI is trading at 2009F P/BV of 0.6x and PER09F of 4.8x. We maintained our buy recommendation on the counter.
CIMB Ramayana Lestari
2008 was a good year for Ramayana, though marred by investment losses. Ramayana’s sales exceeded Rp5tr, of which over 40% came from outside Java. Same-store growth was 6.5%, ahead of its 5.5% target. 2009 will be a trying period as outer-Java same-store sales are contracting faster than in Java. Management has marked down store expansion by 40-45%, and targeting 0.3% same-store growth. We have cut our earnings estimates by 1-8% to reflect lower space expansion but maintaining margin assumptions. Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform with a lower target price of Rp560 (from Rp600), still DCF- derived.
Citi Indonesia economics Vulnerable to Risk Aversion
Economy is likely to slow down significantly led by a sharp slowdown in
investment.
We think domestic demand slowdown seen in 4Q08 will intensify in 2009F, despite some temporary uplift from election-related spending. We expect real GDP growth to slow to as low as 3.5% in 2009F, slowest growth since 1999,and post modest recovery of 4.6% growth in 2010F. We expect the government’s track record of under-spending will keep the budget deficit below plan at 2% of GDP, and provide only a limited support.
Current account expected to improve marginally in 2009F. Sharp slowdown in investment should be positive for Indonesia’s current account balance given that raw materials and capital goods accounted for 93% of Indonesia’s total import bill in 2008. With weaker exports, the net improvement in the current account should be modest – from near zero in 2008 to a small surplus of 0.4% of GDP.
Inflation likely to decelerate sharply but IDR volatility complicates BI moves. After BI cut policy rates by 125bps, we expect more monetary easing for a terminal rate of 7% this year though IDR volatility could slow the pace. Despite rate cuts, we
expect loan growth to slow to around 15%-18% this year on slower demand and rising credit concerns. Rate cuts are not translating to lower yields beyond the SBI bills – IDR bonds have sold off on the back of risk aversion (foreign holdings have declined by IDR5.94trn year-to-date to IDR81.7trn).
IDR remains very vulnerable to risk aversion. Easing depreciation pressure will hinge on recovery of offshore funding flows. The key concern is the potential amount of private sector debt rollovers this year – at least $18bn – which will likely face increasingly difficult refinancing prospects. These potential drains need to be offset by sovereign borrowings, but the continued delays in bond issuance and uncertainty on timing of the standby facility as well as tapping expanded bilateral swaps, has weighed on IDR.
Government’s ability to fund its budget looks manageable. We expect a combination of significant surplus funds from last year (IDR51.3 trn) and tapping IDR44.5 trn (around US$4bn) of the standby facility cover the higher budget gap, keeping the IDR54.7trn net bond issuance target unchanged. With almost IDR26.1trn of bonds raised year-to-date (versus IDR100trn gross bond issuance plan) and we expect $3-$4bn offshore bond issuance, this would leave an average of IDR3.5trn of monthly issuance of local instruments for the rest of the year, which looks manageable, though tenors are likely to be relatively short.
investment.
We think domestic demand slowdown seen in 4Q08 will intensify in 2009F, despite some temporary uplift from election-related spending. We expect real GDP growth to slow to as low as 3.5% in 2009F, slowest growth since 1999,and post modest recovery of 4.6% growth in 2010F. We expect the government’s track record of under-spending will keep the budget deficit below plan at 2% of GDP, and provide only a limited support.
Current account expected to improve marginally in 2009F. Sharp slowdown in investment should be positive for Indonesia’s current account balance given that raw materials and capital goods accounted for 93% of Indonesia’s total import bill in 2008. With weaker exports, the net improvement in the current account should be modest – from near zero in 2008 to a small surplus of 0.4% of GDP.
Inflation likely to decelerate sharply but IDR volatility complicates BI moves. After BI cut policy rates by 125bps, we expect more monetary easing for a terminal rate of 7% this year though IDR volatility could slow the pace. Despite rate cuts, we
expect loan growth to slow to around 15%-18% this year on slower demand and rising credit concerns. Rate cuts are not translating to lower yields beyond the SBI bills – IDR bonds have sold off on the back of risk aversion (foreign holdings have declined by IDR5.94trn year-to-date to IDR81.7trn).
IDR remains very vulnerable to risk aversion. Easing depreciation pressure will hinge on recovery of offshore funding flows. The key concern is the potential amount of private sector debt rollovers this year – at least $18bn – which will likely face increasingly difficult refinancing prospects. These potential drains need to be offset by sovereign borrowings, but the continued delays in bond issuance and uncertainty on timing of the standby facility as well as tapping expanded bilateral swaps, has weighed on IDR.
Government’s ability to fund its budget looks manageable. We expect a combination of significant surplus funds from last year (IDR51.3 trn) and tapping IDR44.5 trn (around US$4bn) of the standby facility cover the higher budget gap, keeping the IDR54.7trn net bond issuance target unchanged. With almost IDR26.1trn of bonds raised year-to-date (versus IDR100trn gross bond issuance plan) and we expect $3-$4bn offshore bond issuance, this would leave an average of IDR3.5trn of monthly issuance of local instruments for the rest of the year, which looks manageable, though tenors are likely to be relatively short.