IQP, (2/2) - Sekjen OPEC Abdalla El Badri mengatakan harga minyak
yang pantas adalah $70-90 per barel sehingga industri perminyakan juga masih
bisa menarik investor untuk mengembangkan ladang baru. "Kisaran itu adalah
harga yang mungkin untuk kita investasi," katanya di Davos. "Kami menguasai
70-80 persen cadangan minyak dunia kami butuh untuk mengeksplorasi dan
membangun sehingga kita cukup suplai untuk seluruh dunia," lanjutnya. OPEC
akan mengadakan pertemuan pada 15 maret mendatang dan Badri mengatakan OPEC
tak akan ragu untuk memangkas produksi guna membuat harga stabil.
Senin, 02 Februari 2009
CLSA ADRO TP idr925
Research Today: Adaro (ADRO IJ), initiating coverage, OPF, TP Rp925
Our analyst Olie initiates coverage on Adaro Energy (ADRO IJ) with an Outperform call and TP of Rp925.
INTERESTING ALTERNATIVE …
From scale and profit growth perspective, ADRO is an interesting alternative in the coal sector. This is the second biggest coal producer (38mn tonnes on 2008, 17% of total Indonesian production) in Indonesia, with 3rd biggest reserves in Indonesia to support future growth (928m tonnes).
Net profit could jump five-fold, driven largely by re-pricing of long-term fixed contracts, lower costs, and steady production growth.
Out of 20mn tonnes already contracted in 2009, ADRO has successfully re-negotiated some of these contracts (16mn out of 20mn).
BUT NOT A DEFENSIVE PLAY ….
However, this is not a defensive play (we prefer ITMG and PTBA for defensive names).
Total debt is about US$930mn, net gearing 52% in 2008, not appealing when peers are in net cash.
Mining cost is cheap but neutralized by expensive transportation costs. Transportation is 75km by road and 250-350km by barging.
Management has been successful in growing productions and marketing envirocoal (very low ash and almost non-existent sulfur). However, we question ADRO’s strategy for asset-heavy-full-integration business model.
The performance of the company’s own mining contractor has been poor.
Some of the recent acquisitions are expensive, in our view.
Rp1.1tn investment in Recapital (no loss provision made so far) is another question mark.
Shares overhang. Lock-up for financial investors, control around 25% stakes, will end in mid March 2009.
Our analyst Olie initiates coverage on Adaro Energy (ADRO IJ) with an Outperform call and TP of Rp925.
INTERESTING ALTERNATIVE …
From scale and profit growth perspective, ADRO is an interesting alternative in the coal sector. This is the second biggest coal producer (38mn tonnes on 2008, 17% of total Indonesian production) in Indonesia, with 3rd biggest reserves in Indonesia to support future growth (928m tonnes).
Net profit could jump five-fold, driven largely by re-pricing of long-term fixed contracts, lower costs, and steady production growth.
Out of 20mn tonnes already contracted in 2009, ADRO has successfully re-negotiated some of these contracts (16mn out of 20mn).
BUT NOT A DEFENSIVE PLAY ….
However, this is not a defensive play (we prefer ITMG and PTBA for defensive names).
Total debt is about US$930mn, net gearing 52% in 2008, not appealing when peers are in net cash.
Mining cost is cheap but neutralized by expensive transportation costs. Transportation is 75km by road and 250-350km by barging.
Management has been successful in growing productions and marketing envirocoal (very low ash and almost non-existent sulfur). However, we question ADRO’s strategy for asset-heavy-full-integration business model.
The performance of the company’s own mining contractor has been poor.
Some of the recent acquisitions are expensive, in our view.
Rp1.1tn investment in Recapital (no loss provision made so far) is another question mark.
Shares overhang. Lock-up for financial investors, control around 25% stakes, will end in mid March 2009.
Indofinanz ANTM
Jakarta (Indofinanz) - Penjualan PT Aneka Tambang Tbk (ANTM) sepanjang tahun 2008 untuk sementara mencapai Rp9,512 trilyun atau menurun sekitar 19 persen ketimbang tahun 2007. Pendapatan usaha pada triwulan keempat tahun lalut tercatat Rp2,106 trilyun, atau berkurang 38 persen ketimbang tahun sebelumnya.
Sekretaris Perusahaan ANTM Bimo Budi Satriyo, dalam keterbukaan informasi ke Bursa Efek Indonesia (BEI), mengatakan, pada kuartal keempat produksi feronikel mencapai 3.540 ton atau menyusut 44 persen ketimbang tahun 2007 dan sepanjang tahun lalu produksi feronikel mencapai 17.566 ton. Adapun volume penjualan bijih nikel mencapai 806.400 weight metrik ton (wmt) dan emas 3.367 kg pada kuartal keempat lalu.
Sekretaris Perusahaan ANTM Bimo Budi Satriyo, dalam keterbukaan informasi ke Bursa Efek Indonesia (BEI), mengatakan, pada kuartal keempat produksi feronikel mencapai 3.540 ton atau menyusut 44 persen ketimbang tahun 2007 dan sepanjang tahun lalu produksi feronikel mencapai 17.566 ton. Adapun volume penjualan bijih nikel mencapai 806.400 weight metrik ton (wmt) dan emas 3.367 kg pada kuartal keempat lalu.
Indofinanz ELTY
Jakarta (Indofinanz) - PT Bakrieland Development Tbk (ELTY) kini mulai mengembangkan kawasan industri usaha mikro kecil dan menengah (UMKM) di sepanjang jalan tol yang tengah digarap perseroan. Pengembangan kawasan di sepanjang jalan tol ini dimaksud untuk mendukung lalu lintas kendaraan yang akan melewati ruas tol. Saat ini anak perusahaan Group Bakrie itu tengah mengerjakan kawasan di penggiran tol ruas Kanci-Pejagan seluas 200 ha. Pengembangan kawasan ini langsung ditangani perseroan sementara pengerjaan jalan tol digerap PT Bakrie Toll Road. Demikian diungkapkan Presiden Direktur ELTY Hiramsyah S Thaib di Jakarta, Minggu (01/02).
PalmoilHQ Crude palm oil futures: A bull in hibernation
OBSERVATIONS: Players who returned to the Kuala Lumpur crude palm oil futures market last Wednesday in a holiday-shortened trading week (last Monday and Tuesday were Chinese New Year public holidays) were confronted with a slew of bearish developments and news - the plunge in the bellwether US soyabean oil futures due in part to the strength of the US dollar; crude oil’s relapse to near US$40 a barrel; and poor export sales estimates.
Many market participants scurried for cover, liquidating long (buy) positions. Selling snowballed after the decisive downside penetration of the psychological RM1,800 a tonne level. The actively-traded April 2009 contract was sent reeling to a low of RM1,739, before recovering some on short-covering and profit-taking ahead of the weekend. The contract closed last Friday at RM1,779 a tonne, down RM 51 or 2.79 per cent over the week.
Players were particularly dismayed by the latest export sales estimates. Societe Generale de Surveillance’ and Intertek Agri Services’ January 1-25 palm oil estimates were on average lower by some 360,000 tonnes or 27 per cent compared to that for the similar period in December last year.
Industry concern is that the resumption of the downtrend in export sales will see stocks piling up again. End-December 2008 stocks were still a deadweight 1,994,681 tonnes, despite the record high 1.61 million tonnes of export sales in that month.
Conclusion: What last week’s breakdown below the psychological RM1,800 has done is turn this market into a short-term bear.
And because the short-term trend is now a bear, and discretion being the better part of valour, market players would be well-advised to initiate short (sell) contracts but only at technical overbought positions below the immediate overhead resistance level, presently pitched at RM1,830.
But the long-term trend of this market is still a bull, gone into hibernation for now
Many market participants scurried for cover, liquidating long (buy) positions. Selling snowballed after the decisive downside penetration of the psychological RM1,800 a tonne level. The actively-traded April 2009 contract was sent reeling to a low of RM1,739, before recovering some on short-covering and profit-taking ahead of the weekend. The contract closed last Friday at RM1,779 a tonne, down RM 51 or 2.79 per cent over the week.
Players were particularly dismayed by the latest export sales estimates. Societe Generale de Surveillance’ and Intertek Agri Services’ January 1-25 palm oil estimates were on average lower by some 360,000 tonnes or 27 per cent compared to that for the similar period in December last year.
Industry concern is that the resumption of the downtrend in export sales will see stocks piling up again. End-December 2008 stocks were still a deadweight 1,994,681 tonnes, despite the record high 1.61 million tonnes of export sales in that month.
Conclusion: What last week’s breakdown below the psychological RM1,800 has done is turn this market into a short-term bear.
And because the short-term trend is now a bear, and discretion being the better part of valour, market players would be well-advised to initiate short (sell) contracts but only at technical overbought positions below the immediate overhead resistance level, presently pitched at RM1,830.
But the long-term trend of this market is still a bull, gone into hibernation for now
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