Jakarta - Laba bersih PT Bank CIMB Niaga Tbk (BNGA) tahun 2008 mengalami penurunan signifikan hingga 55,6% menjadi Rp 342,067 miliar dibanding tahun 2007 yang sebesar Rp 770,481 miliar.
Laba operasional (laba usaha) juga ikut turun 58% menjadi Rp 412,340 miliar dibanding tahun 2007 yang sebesar Rp 992,414 miliar.
Penurunan laba CIMB Niaga ini terutama karena naiknya beban operasional lainnya hingga Rp 2,253 triliun yang naik dibanding tahun 2007 sebesar Rp 2,137 triliun.
Selasa, 17 Februari 2009
UBS Bank Danamon Indo Rating: Buy Target: Rp2,775
Bank Danamon Indo Rating: Buy Target: Rp2,775 Price: Rp2,225 RIC: BDMN.JK
Prior: Sell Prior: Rp2,200 Mkt Cap: Rp11,037bn BBG: BDMN IJ
We upgrade our rating from Sell to Buy for three reasons:
1) The bank is not going in for the rights issue to fix problems with the balance sheet quality;
2) it is doing the rights issue for the right reason—to comply with the Basel 2 operational risk standards, to improve its competitive positioning relative to other big banks, and to invest in high-growth businesses; and 3) its valuation on a post-rights basis is attractive at 0.9x P/BV, reflecting a lot
Q408 results indicate strong earnings power to withstand NPL shock
The bank recorded around 4% pre-provision ROA in Q408. This should be adequate to withstand the expected increase in credit cost in 2009. We believe Danamon needs around US$400m to bring its capital adequacy ratio (CAR) to 14-15% by end-2009. This includes the capital impact from the Basel 2 implementation, and the investment in Adira and calling in its subdebt.
The valuation is also attractive on a 12m forward post-rights basis
Using a scenario of a US$400m rights issue at a 40% discount to the market, we arrive at a post-rights 12m forward valuation of 8.4x 2010E PE for Danamon. This is attractive both on a historical basis as well as a comparison basis. The stock would trade at 0.9x 2010E P/BV, which is the least expensive among the banks we cover.
Valuation: raise price target from Rp2,200 to Rp2,775
We derive our price target of Rp2,775 using the Gordon Growth model on a post-rights basis. We assume 20% return on equity (previously 17%) and 18.3% cost of equity to arrive at the target P/BV multiple. We apply the multiple to 2010 BVPS which we then discount a year to arrive at the price target.
Prior: Sell Prior: Rp2,200 Mkt Cap: Rp11,037bn BBG: BDMN IJ
We upgrade our rating from Sell to Buy for three reasons:
1) The bank is not going in for the rights issue to fix problems with the balance sheet quality;
2) it is doing the rights issue for the right reason—to comply with the Basel 2 operational risk standards, to improve its competitive positioning relative to other big banks, and to invest in high-growth businesses; and 3) its valuation on a post-rights basis is attractive at 0.9x P/BV, reflecting a lot
Q408 results indicate strong earnings power to withstand NPL shock
The bank recorded around 4% pre-provision ROA in Q408. This should be adequate to withstand the expected increase in credit cost in 2009. We believe Danamon needs around US$400m to bring its capital adequacy ratio (CAR) to 14-15% by end-2009. This includes the capital impact from the Basel 2 implementation, and the investment in Adira and calling in its subdebt.
The valuation is also attractive on a 12m forward post-rights basis
Using a scenario of a US$400m rights issue at a 40% discount to the market, we arrive at a post-rights 12m forward valuation of 8.4x 2010E PE for Danamon. This is attractive both on a historical basis as well as a comparison basis. The stock would trade at 0.9x 2010E P/BV, which is the least expensive among the banks we cover.
Valuation: raise price target from Rp2,200 to Rp2,775
We derive our price target of Rp2,775 using the Gordon Growth model on a post-rights basis. We assume 20% return on equity (previously 17%) and 18.3% cost of equity to arrive at the target P/BV multiple. We apply the multiple to 2010 BVPS which we then discount a year to arrive at the price target.
Mandiri Sekuritas Macroscope
4Q08 GDP: Global crisis hits home harder than expected
Indonesia’s economy contracted by 3.6% qoq or increased by 5.2% yoy in 4Q08, lower than our and consensus estimates of 5.5% yoy and 5.7% yoy respectively. However, upward revisions in 3Q08 have helped maintain the 2008 economic growth at 6.1% yoy.
Significant slowdown in exports brought down economic growth lower than our projection. Exports only grew by 1.8% yoy, while imports contracted 3.5% yoy in the 4Q08. Private consumption and investment growth moderated to 4.8% yoy and 9.1% yoy.
On the production side, slower economic growth was mainly driven by drop in manufacturing sector, which growth declined to 1.8% yoy in the 4Q08 (v.s 4.3% yoy in the previous quarter), followed by trade and construction (5.6% yoy and 5.7% yoy respectively). Meanwhile agriculture, mining and communication sectors grew relatively well by 4.7%, 2.1% and 32.9% yoy, which have been supported by modest domestic demand.
Lower-than-expected 4Q08 economic growth suggests that the impact of global economic slowdown have a grater impact on the economy. Thus, we expect the authority to continue to push forward its fiscal stimulus package and monetary policy loosening.
Indonesia’s economy contracted by 3.6% qoq or increased by 5.2% yoy in 4Q08, lower than our and consensus estimates of 5.5% yoy and 5.7% yoy respectively. However, upward revisions in 3Q08 have helped maintain the 2008 economic growth at 6.1% yoy.
Significant slowdown in exports brought down economic growth lower than our projection. Exports only grew by 1.8% yoy, while imports contracted 3.5% yoy in the 4Q08. Private consumption and investment growth moderated to 4.8% yoy and 9.1% yoy.
On the production side, slower economic growth was mainly driven by drop in manufacturing sector, which growth declined to 1.8% yoy in the 4Q08 (v.s 4.3% yoy in the previous quarter), followed by trade and construction (5.6% yoy and 5.7% yoy respectively). Meanwhile agriculture, mining and communication sectors grew relatively well by 4.7%, 2.1% and 32.9% yoy, which have been supported by modest domestic demand.
Lower-than-expected 4Q08 economic growth suggests that the impact of global economic slowdown have a grater impact on the economy. Thus, we expect the authority to continue to push forward its fiscal stimulus package and monetary policy loosening.
JP Morgan Astra International TP; idr7,700
January 4W sales down 20% M/M, worse than what recent media reports indicated
Downward pressure intact; we stay UW: On February 11, 2009,
ASII’s stock price fell over 6% on news (Bloomberg) that vehicle sales in January were 34,000 units. With actual figures being lower, we expect negative reaction to this data. Our FY09E EPS for Astra is 15% below the consensus estimate; we expect downward estimate revisions after a potentially weak sales release. We see this as a key negative driver. Hence, we reiterate our UW rating on Astra.
We prefer UNTR within the group: Our Dec-09 PT of Rp7,700 for Astra is in line with its current book value, and based on 6x FY09E EPS, which is in line with previous trough values. Value accruing from Astra’s subsidiaries (which have recently outperformed the parent) is a risk to our view, but investors could look at UNTR directly to play this angle.
Downward pressure intact; we stay UW: On February 11, 2009,
ASII’s stock price fell over 6% on news (Bloomberg) that vehicle sales in January were 34,000 units. With actual figures being lower, we expect negative reaction to this data. Our FY09E EPS for Astra is 15% below the consensus estimate; we expect downward estimate revisions after a potentially weak sales release. We see this as a key negative driver. Hence, we reiterate our UW rating on Astra.
We prefer UNTR within the group: Our Dec-09 PT of Rp7,700 for Astra is in line with its current book value, and based on 6x FY09E EPS, which is in line with previous trough values. Value accruing from Astra’s subsidiaries (which have recently outperformed the parent) is a risk to our view, but investors could look at UNTR directly to play this angle.
CLSA Indo Tambang (ITMG IJ), Healthy Choice
Research Today: Indo Tambang (ITMG IJ), healthy choice
Our resource analyst Olie looked at Indo Tambang Raya (ITMG IJ) and believes that it is a healthy choice. To be on the conservative side, we cut earnings forecast by 20%and 17% in 2009 and 2010 respectively, taking into account higher cost assumptions. We have raised cost assumptions after we learn that ITMG will re-start mining in Kitadin using own mining fleet rather than contractors. BUT ITMG is our top pick in the coal space. We have a BUY rating with TP of Rp13,900 (lowered from previously Rp16,600).
Reasons why ITMG is good for your health:
Dividend play. ITMG has a policy to distribute 60%, of earnings as dividend. Parent Banpu relies on dividend from ITMG. Expect 15% yield this year.
Corp governance: parent ranks near top of our CG survey.
Defensive nature: (1) portion of contracted tonnage, around 54% now, at around US$80/t (2) strong cash flows (3) strong cash balance.
Lower fuel cost: ITMG would be key beneficiary. Expect total cash cost, incl. royalty, to fall from US$53/t in 08 to US$48/t this year.
Upward adjustment on reserves? ITMG uses US$45/t for reserve statement. This is conservative. ITMG has total resource of 1.5bn tonnes and portion of this can be converted into reserves.
Key catalyst for the stock: (1) dividend announcement (2) fixing the price of remaining tonnage (3) result announcement (4) achieving production assumptions (5) new reserve estimates, possibly announced end of 1Q09.
Our resource analyst Olie looked at Indo Tambang Raya (ITMG IJ) and believes that it is a healthy choice. To be on the conservative side, we cut earnings forecast by 20%and 17% in 2009 and 2010 respectively, taking into account higher cost assumptions. We have raised cost assumptions after we learn that ITMG will re-start mining in Kitadin using own mining fleet rather than contractors. BUT ITMG is our top pick in the coal space. We have a BUY rating with TP of Rp13,900 (lowered from previously Rp16,600).
Reasons why ITMG is good for your health:
Dividend play. ITMG has a policy to distribute 60%, of earnings as dividend. Parent Banpu relies on dividend from ITMG. Expect 15% yield this year.
Corp governance: parent ranks near top of our CG survey.
Defensive nature: (1) portion of contracted tonnage, around 54% now, at around US$80/t (2) strong cash flows (3) strong cash balance.
Lower fuel cost: ITMG would be key beneficiary. Expect total cash cost, incl. royalty, to fall from US$53/t in 08 to US$48/t this year.
Upward adjustment on reserves? ITMG uses US$45/t for reserve statement. This is conservative. ITMG has total resource of 1.5bn tonnes and portion of this can be converted into reserves.
Key catalyst for the stock: (1) dividend announcement (2) fixing the price of remaining tonnage (3) result announcement (4) achieving production assumptions (5) new reserve estimates, possibly announced end of 1Q09.
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