Lautandhana from Daily Update

Trading Counter; PTBA dan UNTR

Semen Gresik (SMGR) cari utang US$300 juta CIMA menjadi salah satu target akuisisi

PT Semen Gresik Tbk menjajaki pinjaman US$300 juta atau setara Rp3,57 triliun untuk membiayai akuisisi perusahaan semen asal Malaysia dan Filipina. Eksekutif yang mengetahui rencana itu menuturkan Credit Suisse, penasihat keuangan Semen Gresik dalam akuisisi itu, memperkirakan BUMN semen itu mampu mengakuisisi sebuah perusahaan semen senilai US$150 juta-US$250 juta.

Credit Suisse, ujarnya, merekomendasikan dua perusahaan semen dari Filipina dan satu lainnya dari Malaysia yaitu Cement Industries of Malaysia Berhad (CIMA). Semen Gresik berencana membeli perusahaan semen di Asia karena ingin menggenjot kapasitas produksi. Wakil Direktur Utama Semen Gresik Heru S. Adhiningrat, ketika dikonfirmasi mengenai pencarian utang itu, tidak membantah. Dia menuturkan Semen Gresik pekan lalu melaksanakan non-deal roadshow ke London dan Edinburgh, Inggris, dan Las Vegas, AS.

Dalam roadshow itu, Semen Gresik memperoleh masukan dari pemodal agar tetap melanjutkan rencana akuisisi itu daripada harus membangun pabrik baru dan membutuhkan waktu hingga 3 tahun.

Bukit Asam (PTBA) akan bentuk anak usaha
PT Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam Tbk akan membentuk anak usaha baru yang fokus pada perdagangan batu bara ritel, yang diperkirakan dapat terealisasi pada tahun ini. Sekarang dalam tahap kajian oleh konsultan. Pembentukan anak usaha baru ini merupakan salah satu opsi yang bisa ditempuh, selain menggabungkan unit usaha tersebut dengan anak usaha yang sudah ada. Anak usaha itu dibentuk dengan tujuan untuk meningkatkan efisiensi perseroan.

Mandiri Sekuritas Bukit Asam

Bukit Asam: PLN to cancel contract for coal priced above Rp750k/ton, no impact for PTBA (PTBA, Rp7,550, Buy, TP: Rp9,380)

Head of PLB primary energy unit, Nasri Sebayang is threatening to cancel coal purchases contracts of coal if priced above average budgeted coal price of Rp750,000/ton. Bukit Asam in November 2008, made agreement to Indonesia Power, a PLN subsidiary, to supply 6.1mn tons of coal in 2009 (half of their 2009 annual output)at Rp884,000/ton. Indonesia Power, subsidiary of PLN, made independent decision of their contracts. Therefore we see no impacts to Bukit Asam. We have a Buy recommendation for PTBA with Ro9,380 target price. At Rp7,550, PTBA is traded at 8.3x 2008 PER, and 6.4x 2009 PER to our estimates.

Mandiri Sekuritas Bank Negara Indonesia: a visit to SKC (BBNI, Rp720, Buy, TP: Rp1,000)

We visited Bank BNI’s small business center (SKC) at Bekasi, Eastern Jakarta yesterday. This center focuses on extending loans below Rp10bn and has total loan exposure of Rp470bn at end Dec08 offered at around 15-16% p.a.

BNI targets loans growth this year to be derived mostly from small sized loans as this type of loans are believed to be resilient during economic crisis. Our visit supported the argument. Even though the NPL at this center is relatively high at 5.2%, the outlook is encouraging as the debtors are mostly cooperatives. Moreover, selling the loan collateral is easy as its loan collateral value is relatively small.

The center’s NPL is mainly derived from developer of low cost housing, trader of scrap steel, plastic and textile. This year, the center is targeted to book additional Rp200bn of new loans, 50% of which should be extended to loans below Rp1bn. In Jan09 only, the center managed to book additional loans of over Rp20bn.

We like BNI’s transparency and believe that its strategy to focus on small sized loans to be appropriate given prolong economic crisis. Currently, Bank BNI is trading at 2009F P/BV of 0.6x and PER09F of 4.8x. We maintained our buy recommendation on the counter.

CIMB Ramayana Lestari

2008 was a good year for Ramayana, though marred by investment losses. Ramayana’s sales exceeded Rp5tr, of which over 40% came from outside Java. Same-store growth was 6.5%, ahead of its 5.5% target. 2009 will be a trying period as outer-Java same-store sales are contracting faster than in Java. Management has marked down store expansion by 40-45%, and targeting 0.3% same-store growth. We have cut our earnings estimates by 1-8% to reflect lower space expansion but maintaining margin assumptions. Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform with a lower target price of Rp560 (from Rp600), still DCF- derived.

Citi Indonesia economics Vulnerable to Risk Aversion

Economy is likely to slow down significantly led by a sharp slowdown in
investment.

We think domestic demand slowdown seen in 4Q08 will intensify in 2009F, despite some temporary uplift from election-related spending. We expect real GDP growth to slow to as low as 3.5% in 2009F, slowest growth since 1999,and post modest recovery of 4.6% growth in 2010F. We expect the government’s track record of under-spending will keep the budget deficit below plan at 2% of GDP, and provide only a limited support.

Current account expected to improve marginally in 2009F. Sharp slowdown in investment should be positive for Indonesia’s current account balance given that raw materials and capital goods accounted for 93% of Indonesia’s total import bill in 2008. With weaker exports, the net improvement in the current account should be modest – from near zero in 2008 to a small surplus of 0.4% of GDP.

Inflation likely to decelerate sharply but IDR volatility complicates BI moves. After BI cut policy rates by 125bps, we expect more monetary easing for a terminal rate of 7% this year though IDR volatility could slow the pace. Despite rate cuts, we
expect loan growth to slow to around 15%-18% this year on slower demand and rising credit concerns. Rate cuts are not translating to lower yields beyond the SBI bills – IDR bonds have sold off on the back of risk aversion (foreign holdings have declined by IDR5.94trn year-to-date to IDR81.7trn).

IDR remains very vulnerable to risk aversion. Easing depreciation pressure will hinge on recovery of offshore funding flows. The key concern is the potential amount of private sector debt rollovers this year – at least $18bn – which will likely face increasingly difficult refinancing prospects. These potential drains need to be offset by sovereign borrowings, but the continued delays in bond issuance and uncertainty on timing of the standby facility as well as tapping expanded bilateral swaps, has weighed on IDR.

Government’s ability to fund its budget looks manageable. We expect a combination of significant surplus funds from last year (IDR51.3 trn) and tapping IDR44.5 trn (around US$4bn) of the standby facility cover the higher budget gap, keeping the IDR54.7trn net bond issuance target unchanged. With almost IDR26.1trn of bonds raised year-to-date (versus IDR100trn gross bond issuance plan) and we expect $3-$4bn offshore bond issuance, this would leave an average of IDR3.5trn of monthly issuance of local instruments for the rest of the year, which looks manageable, though tenors are likely to be relatively short.