Prospek Citigroup dan General Electric Kembali mengkhawatirkan. Indeks S&P 500 kembali terperosok. Bursa AS kembali terperosok pada perdagangan Jumat setelah pelaku pasar kembali mengkhawatirkan prospek dari Citigroup dan General Electric.
Bursa Eropa ditutup merosot dalam. Indeks DJ Euro Stoxx anjlok 2,2%.
Bursa Asia pagi ini bergerak negatif terimbas buruknya sentimen pasar global. Nikkei melemah 3,2%, Kospi melemah 3,4%, St Times turun 2,6%, dan KLCI turun 0,6%.
Bursa Indonesia hari ini berpotensi melemah seiring buruknya sentimen pasar global dan regional, harga komoditas yang bergerak cenderung melemah juga perlu diwaspadai menjadi faktor melemahan. Peluang buy on weakness pada saham berfundamental seperti PTBA dan UNTR.
Mobile-8 (FREN) akan dikenai sanksi
Rugi Rp96,28 miliar akibat marked to market
Badan Pengawas Pasar Modal dan Lembaga keuangan (Bapepam-LK) siap menjatuhkan sanksi kepada manajemen PT Mobile-8 Telecom Tbk terkait dengan transparansi persoalan transaksi derivatif dalam laporan keuangan.
Laba Hero capai Rp96,7 miliar
PT Hero Supermarket Tbk mencatatkan pertumbuhan laba bersih sebesar 37,7% menjadi Rp96,7 miliar didorong oleh perbaikan margin dan kontrol biaya.
Hingga 31 Desember 2008, laba usaha perseroan naik dari Rp79,4 miliar menjadi Rp180,7 miliar. Hal ini ditopang oleh kenaikan penjualan 13,9% menjadi Rp5,86 triliun.
Penjualan Mitra Adiperkasa (MAPI) naik
Penjualan PT Mitra Adiperkasa Tbk pada 2008 mencapai Rp4,8 triliun atau tumbuh 24% dibandingkan dengan periode yang sama tahun sebelumnya Rp3,9 triliun.
Telkom (TLKM) dapat komitmen kredit Rp5 triliun
PT Telekomunikasi Indonesia Tbk (Telkom) mendapatkan komitmen pinjaman dari sekitar 15 bank sebesar Rp5 triliun untuk mendanai belanja modal tahun ini.
Tahun ini, Telkom mengalokasikan belanja modal (capital expenditure/capex) sebesar US$2,5 miliar, dari jumlah itu US$800 juta (sekitar Rp8 triliun-Rp9,6triliun) dipenuhi dari pinjaman bank.
selain dari beberapa bank yang telah dijajaki, perseroan juga mendapatkan tawaran pinjaman dari vendor financing hingga US$1 miliar, atau sekitar Rp12 triliun.
Kinerja Antam (ANTM) Memburuk
Pundi-pundi PT Aneka Tambang Tbk (Antm) per 31 Desember 2008 menguap menjadi Rp1,31 trilyun. Berarti laba bersih ini melorot hingga 74 persen ketimbang setahun sebelumnya Rp5,13 trilyun. Alhasil laba bersih per saham emiten berkode ANTM ini juga terkikis dari Rp538,08 per saham menjadi Rp137,76 per saham.
Senin, 02 Maret 2009
CIMB Strategy - Snapshot of January foreign fund flows
Market outlook
Strategy - Snapshot of January foreign fund flows - by Erwan Teguh
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Based on EPFR data, Indonesia enjoyed two consecutive months of net foreign fund inflows in Dec 08 and Jan 09, totalling US$95.3m, vs. a net outflow of US$496m in Jan 09 for emerging Asia. Astra International has toppled Telkom Indonesia for the top holding. On the other hand, after a significant run in Dec 08, banks have lost appeal. The biggest beneficiary appears to be PGAS, with BUMI suffering the most decline. No change in our index target of 1,530 which is bottom-up, implying 10.2x and 8.6x CY09-10 earnings, and a Neutral weighting. Top buys: TLKM, PGAS, ADRO, INTP, BMRI. Top sells: ASII, INDF, INCO
Strategy - Snapshot of January foreign fund flows - by Erwan Teguh
( , )
Based on EPFR data, Indonesia enjoyed two consecutive months of net foreign fund inflows in Dec 08 and Jan 09, totalling US$95.3m, vs. a net outflow of US$496m in Jan 09 for emerging Asia. Astra International has toppled Telkom Indonesia for the top holding. On the other hand, after a significant run in Dec 08, banks have lost appeal. The biggest beneficiary appears to be PGAS, with BUMI suffering the most decline. No change in our index target of 1,530 which is bottom-up, implying 10.2x and 8.6x CY09-10 earnings, and a Neutral weighting. Top buys: TLKM, PGAS, ADRO, INTP, BMRI. Top sells: ASII, INDF, INCO
Credit Suisse - United Tractors 2008 results
United Tractors’2008 results came in 15% above our expectations (13% above consensus’ due to a better( more resilient)-than-expected 4Q08 performance, confirming our positive view on our report, entitled visibility, quality, and valuation
The weaker rupiah, higher ASP (due to product mix) and inventory gains are the key reasons.
Despite a 37% YoY and a 61% QoQ drop in equipment sales volume, revenues were still up 76% YoY and only down 3% QoQ. Half of the growth was due to the weakening of the rupiah. The other coal-related divisions also were impacted by heavy rains in 4Q08. Financially, the company is sitting comfortably with a net gearing of 14%.
Although the results seem to suggest upside risk to our earnings forecasts, we maintain our number unchanged for the moment as we believe that the inventory gains are likely to gradually decline. We are now looking at earnings to decline by 25% YoY this year.
Given the improving earning visibility, quality, and undemanding valuations, we maintain our OUTPERFORM rating on the stock.
The weaker rupiah, higher ASP (due to product mix) and inventory gains are the key reasons.
Despite a 37% YoY and a 61% QoQ drop in equipment sales volume, revenues were still up 76% YoY and only down 3% QoQ. Half of the growth was due to the weakening of the rupiah. The other coal-related divisions also were impacted by heavy rains in 4Q08. Financially, the company is sitting comfortably with a net gearing of 14%.
Although the results seem to suggest upside risk to our earnings forecasts, we maintain our number unchanged for the moment as we believe that the inventory gains are likely to gradually decline. We are now looking at earnings to decline by 25% YoY this year.
Given the improving earning visibility, quality, and undemanding valuations, we maintain our OUTPERFORM rating on the stock.
Goldman Astra Intl 4Q08 results
What surprised us
As expected, Astra International reported weaker 4QFY2008 net profit of Rp1.8tn, vs. its previous quarter’s peak of Rp2.6tn, for full-year net profit of Rp9.2tn, up 41% yoy. This compares against our estimate of Rp8.5trn, with the difference due to Rp403bn exceptional gain on plantation asset disposal. In 4Q, almost all its core divisions had weaker earnings as we expected, automotive operating profit down 74% QoQ to Rp187bn, largely due to fewer car and motorcycle sales (down 7%/26% QoQ respectively), in fact, we note its auto retail distribution unit had Rp185trn in operating losses. Despite Astra Honda squeezing more profits from each motorcycle sale, quarterly earnings were still down 18%, inline with fewer motorcycle sales.
Plantation and heavy equipment/coal mining earnings fell 63% and 34% QoQ, respectively: United Tractors sold fewer Komatsu heavy equipment units, down 61% QoQ as credit tightened, while weaker palm oil prices affected Astra Agro Lestari. Astra International separately proposed to pay a Rp570 final dividend, which including the interim dividend of Rp300, would represent a 38% payout for earnings.
What to do with the stock
The weaker 4QFY2008 results did not surprise us; we had expected a slower 4Q on domestic demand slowdown, and lower commodity prices. That said, we think investors are likely to take comfort in the inline core earnings results. We have raised our 2009E-2010E EPS by 3.1%-8.7%, primarily to reflect higher Rupiah assumptions. Introduce 2011 estimates. Retain our Buy; 12-m NAV-based PT revised marginally up to Rp14,300 (previous Rp14,100). Downside risks include sharper than expected decline in auto and heavy equipment sales, further decline in commodity prices, and more severe than expected credit loss.
As expected, Astra International reported weaker 4QFY2008 net profit of Rp1.8tn, vs. its previous quarter’s peak of Rp2.6tn, for full-year net profit of Rp9.2tn, up 41% yoy. This compares against our estimate of Rp8.5trn, with the difference due to Rp403bn exceptional gain on plantation asset disposal. In 4Q, almost all its core divisions had weaker earnings as we expected, automotive operating profit down 74% QoQ to Rp187bn, largely due to fewer car and motorcycle sales (down 7%/26% QoQ respectively), in fact, we note its auto retail distribution unit had Rp185trn in operating losses. Despite Astra Honda squeezing more profits from each motorcycle sale, quarterly earnings were still down 18%, inline with fewer motorcycle sales.
Plantation and heavy equipment/coal mining earnings fell 63% and 34% QoQ, respectively: United Tractors sold fewer Komatsu heavy equipment units, down 61% QoQ as credit tightened, while weaker palm oil prices affected Astra Agro Lestari. Astra International separately proposed to pay a Rp570 final dividend, which including the interim dividend of Rp300, would represent a 38% payout for earnings.
What to do with the stock
The weaker 4QFY2008 results did not surprise us; we had expected a slower 4Q on domestic demand slowdown, and lower commodity prices. That said, we think investors are likely to take comfort in the inline core earnings results. We have raised our 2009E-2010E EPS by 3.1%-8.7%, primarily to reflect higher Rupiah assumptions. Introduce 2011 estimates. Retain our Buy; 12-m NAV-based PT revised marginally up to Rp14,300 (previous Rp14,100). Downside risks include sharper than expected decline in auto and heavy equipment sales, further decline in commodity prices, and more severe than expected credit loss.
Newsletter from PT Antam Tbk
Newsletter from PT Antam Tbk
Dear Antam NewsAlerts Subscriber:
Welcome to the latest edition of Antam NewsAlerts.
ANTAM PROFITS Rp1,313 BILLION (UNAUDITED) IN FULL YEAR 2008 27-02-2009
Jakarta, 27 February 200 9 PT Antam Tbk (ASX - ATM; IDX - ANTM) announces today unaudited consolidated net profit of Rp1,313 billion and Earnings per Share (EPS ) of Rp137.76 in full year 2008. The decrease is attributed to lower revenue from the nickel segment as well as higher costs related to higher fuel prices, pushing higher materials, mining services and transpor tation costs. As well, Antams cost of sales increased due to lower ferronickel inventory value which is based on market prices. Antams net profit in 2008 was 74% lower compared to Rp5,132 billion of net profit and EPS of Rp538,08 in 2007.
Dear Antam NewsAlerts Subscriber:
Welcome to the latest edition of Antam NewsAlerts.
ANTAM PROFITS Rp1,313 BILLION (UNAUDITED) IN FULL YEAR 2008 27-02-2009
Jakarta, 27 February 200 9 PT Antam Tbk (ASX - ATM; IDX - ANTM) announces today unaudited consolidated net profit of Rp1,313 billion and Earnings per Share (EPS ) of Rp137.76 in full year 2008. The decrease is attributed to lower revenue from the nickel segment as well as higher costs related to higher fuel prices, pushing higher materials, mining services and transpor tation costs. As well, Antams cost of sales increased due to lower ferronickel inventory value which is based on market prices. Antams net profit in 2008 was 74% lower compared to Rp5,132 billion of net profit and EPS of Rp538,08 in 2007.
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