JP Morgan - Delta Dunia: a stab in the dark, only for the brave

A what-if analysis: what-if DOID enters into a 1:1 non-cash share swap deal for a 90% stake in Berau Coal, currently held by Recapital.

The outcome: The market could be looking at a bigger company with a forecast net income of Rp1900bn for FY10 and Rp2400bn for FY11. On 2x the number of shares in DOID at Rp980, the market cap would be equal to Rp13.3trn, implying potential P/E ratio of 7.0x and 5.6x FY10-11.

The forecast: Most conservative consensus forecast on DOID calls for Rp851bn and Rp948bn net profit for FY10-11. When we met with the management recently, they are still endorsing such forecast.

Stevanus Juanda (analyst) has performed back-of-the-envelope analysis on Berau Coal, thinking that the company could deliver Rp1050bn and Rp1435bn net profit for FY10-11, assuming a US$300mn debt on the balance sheet. This forecast is driven by an EBITDA forecast of around Rp1.5trn and Rp1.9trn for FY10-11, based on US$90 and US$95 coal price for JFY11-12; 15.4mn and 17.0mn ton coal production in FY10-11. Steve’s estimate appears conservative compared to the comment made by Recapital CEO Mr.Rosan in January 2010, when he said EBITDA estimate should reach US$340mn on 17mn ton coal production.

The swap ratio: I always wonder why DOID presentation material contains a page where the management explained about Recapital’s deal on Berau Coal (attached); now I am starting to understand. One of the bullet point on page 5 confirmed a reported transation value of US$1.4bn EV, financed with vendor support, mezzanine and senior debt. If we assume a US$300mn debt at Berau upon the day of the swap, the implied equity value will be about US$1100mn or Rp10,920bn.

DOID shares were placed at Rp1400, or a market cap of around Rp9,500bn. That is how I arrive at a hypothetical swap ratio of 1:1, between DOID and Berau Coal.

The sensitivity: What if the swap ratio is unfavorable to DOID shareholders? If we take an extreme ratio of two DOID shares equal to one Berau Coal, the enlarged number of shares for DOID will be around 20,370mn. At Rp980 and 20,370mn shares, the market cap for DOID will be around Rp19.9trn with the same net profit forecast of Rp1900bn for FY10 and Rp2400bn for FY11. The implied P/E for this “less-favorable-scenario” is 10.5x and 8.4x for FY10-11; still looks manageable for me.

The risk: (1) Sentimental sell-off: angry shareholders looking to unload at any price, (2) Seeking cash from the minority: my assumption is for a non-cash deal, where current minority holders need not top up any cash. (3) Very unfavorable swap ratio, valuing Berau Coal at a big premium compared to the pronounced EV value of US$1.4bn, and DOID at a big discount to recent placement price of Rp1400.

JP Morgan - US Coal Industry: Coking coal is cool; thermal coal is challenged by natural gas

US coal equity performance in Q1 has been driven by coking coal exposure; those with the highest exposure have outperformed the most. The rise in spot coking coal prices from the $180/t level late in 2009 to the current $230/t level has lifted expectations and the equities of coking coal miners. Operationally, the miners suffered a tough winter, which will hurt the Q1 results, but it did force supply discipline in the miners, and utility inventories seem to be falling faster than expected. Natural gas inventories have fallen, but only to average levels. Now with gas prices teetering above $4/mmBtu, coal-to-gas switching could be coming back to haunt the CAPP producers. Or maybe the gas threat will help encourage smaller CAPP miners to sell.

· he market is waiting for the annual coking coal contracts that are expected to exceed the already settled quarterly settlement. The announcements or discussion of these contracts are likely to dominate the performance of the coking coal leveraged coal equities through the quarterly reporting period.

· Massey has already highlighted that it lost sales in the first quarter, we’re assuming this was about 8% of planned production. Assuming the forward-looking commentary on pricing is positive, the weak first quarter is unlikely to disappoint too much.

· Natural gas prices are again threatening coal sales. We continue to highlight that there are practical limits to coal-to-gas switching due to the location of most gas plants on “backwaters” of the US power grid. However, this could add to utility coal inventories before the summer arrives. We do highlight that last fall it was primarily the higher priced CAPP coal that was substituted in the southeast and eastern regions.· The great CAPP coal carve-up. After several years of pressure, the smaller CAPP coal producers could be ready to sell. Massey is buying Cumberland and is immediately reloading its balance sheet with cash for the next deal. Although financially weaker, Patriot and Alpha are also likely to be seeking out synergistic tack on acquisitions.

Laba Elnusa Melonjak 249 Persen

Jakarta (ANTARA News) - Perusahaan eksplorasi minyak dan gas, PT Elnusa Tbk (ELSA), membukukan laba bersih Rp466,2 miliar pada 2009, naik 249 persen dibanding tahun sebelumnya yang hanya Rp133,8 miliar.

Direktur Utama PT Elnusa Tbk, Eteng A. Salam dalam siaran pers Senin mengatakan, kenaikan laba bersih didorong oleh kuatnya kinerja operasi perseroan serta adanya laba hasil divestasi non core business perseroan, PT Infomedia Nusantara pada Juni 2009 lalu.

Sementara itu pendapatan usaha perseroan tercatat mengalami kenaikan 44 persen, menjadi Rp 3,66 triliun pada 2009 dibandingkan sebelumnya hanya Rp 2,54 triliun.

Eteng mengatakan segmen jasa hulu migas perseroan mencatat pertumbuhan pendapatan usaha dan laba bersih yang impresif, dengan menyumbangkan pendapatan Rp 2,26 triliun, atau 62 persen terhadap pendapatan usaha konsolidasi.

Sementara untuk segmen jasa hilir migas, mencatat pendapatan usaha Rp 1,09 triliun, segmen supporting and competency based menyumbangkan Rp 281 miliar dan jasa penunjang hulu migas menyumbangkan Rp 90,74 miliar.

Laba Bersih Medco Energi Turun 93,1%

JAKARTA - PT Medco Energi Internasional Tbk (MEDC) membukukan laba bersih 2009 sebesar USD19,2 Juta bila dibandingkan 2008 yang tercatat USD280,2 Juta.

Angka ini akibat keuntungan yang diperoleh dari penjualan seluruh saham PT Apexindo Pratama Duta. Hal ini berarti Medco merugi 93,1 persen tahun lalu atau laba bersih turun USD261 Juta.

"Laba bersih Perseroan tahun lalu sudah termasuk penerimaan dari pelepasan anak perusahaan-bersih setelah pajak, sebesar USD62,5 Juta. Pelepasan anak perusahaan ini merupakan realisasi dari program Optimalisasi aset perseroan yang dicanagkan sejak awal 2008," ungkap Direktur Keuangan MEDC Cyril Noerhadi usai Analyst Meeting di kantornya Jakarta, Senin (29/03/2010).

Penjualan dan pendapatan usaha lain perseroan di tahun lalu menurun menjadi USD667,8 Juta atau sebesar 48,6 persen dari USD1,3 miliar di 2008. "Penyebab utama dari turunnya penjualan dan pendapatan usaha lain adalah rendahnya harga rata-rata minyak dan gas yang terealisasi," kata Cyril.

Sementara untuk harga minyak 2008, Medco USD101 per barel, turun menjadi USD64 per barel di 2009. Sedangkan harga gas, harga 2008 USD4,2 per mmbtu, menjadi USD3,1 per mmbtu di 2009.

"Jumlah rata-rata penjualan minyak dan gas menjadi 52,8 MBOEPD dari 63,5MBOEPD. Namun di tengah krisis finansial, Medco bisa menekan beban pokok penjualan dan biaya lngsung lain di 2009 menjadi USD438,8 juta, dibandingkan USD7855,7 juta di 2008," pungkasnya.(Desy Aritonang/Trijaya/ade)

Barito Pacific Raup Laba Rp 547,2 Miliar

Laba tersebut naik 116 persen dibanding rugi bersih pada 2008 sebesar Rp 3,3 triliun.


VIVAnews - PT Barito Pacific Tbk (BRPT) sepanjang 2009 mencatat laba bersih Rp 547,26 miliar atau naik 116 persen dibanding rugi bersih pada 2008 sebesar Rp 3,3 triliun.

Siaran pers Barito yang diterima VIVAnews di Jakarta, Senin 29 Maret 2010 menyebutkan, kenaikan laba bersih disebabkan oleh turunnya beban pokok penjualan menjadi Rp 12,64 triliun dibanding periode sebelumnya sebesar Rp 19,38 triliun.

Akibatnya, laba kotor perseroan naik menjadi Rp 1,75 triliun atau tumbuh sebesar 266,16 persen dari rugi kotor pada periode sama tahun lalu sebesar Rp 1,05 triliun.

Turunnya beban pokok yang signifikan tersebut disebabkan oleh semakin membaik dan stabilnya harga nafta, bahan baku industri petrokimia perseroan.

Harga rata-rata nafta sepanjang 2009 berada di posisi US$ 540 per metrik ton. Sedangkan pada 2008, harga rata-rata nafta sebesar US$ 832 per metrik ton.

Selama 2009, harga nafta rata-rata bulanan tertinggi mencapai sekitar US$ 706 per metrik ton dan harga nafta rata-rata bulanan terendah US$ 393 per metrik ton.

Sedangkan sepanjang 2008 harga nafta rata-rata bulanan tertinggi sempat menyentuh US$ 1.168 per metrik ton dan harga nafta rata-rata bulanan terendah US$ 293 per metrik ton.

Hingga Desember 2009, perseroan memiliki kas dan setara kas Rp 1,86 triliun atau naik 19 persen dibanding 2008 sebesar Rp 1,57 triliun.

Dengan laba bersih yang meningkat signifikan serta posisi kas dan setara kas yang besar menunjukkan perseroan merupakan perusahaan yang sangat sehat dan kuat.

Senior Vice President Barito Pacific Agustino Sudjono mengatakan, perseroan tetap optimistis dalam bisnis petrokimia di masa depan.