JAKARTA. Grup Bakrie bakal berutang lagi. Sumber KONTAN di kelompok usaha ini mengungkapkan, hingga akhir tahun ini, sejumlah perusahaan milik keluarga Bakrie bakal merilis obligasi global sekitar US$ 550 juta-US$ 600 juta.
Perinciannya, PT Bakrie & Brothers Tbk (BNBR) akan melepas obligasi US$ 150 juta, PT Bakrie Sumatra Plantations Tbk (UNSP) sekitar Rp 200 juta-US$ 250 juta, dan PT Energi Mega Persada Tbk (ENRG) senilai US$ 200 juta. "Obligasi itu akan dipakai untuk melunasi pinjaman," ujar si sumber yang ogah disebut namanya itu, Senin malam (16/8).
Obligasi BNBR, lanjut si sumber, rencananya terbit paling awal, yaitu sekitar September mendatang. Setelah itu, baru obligasi anak usahanya yang dijual.
Si sumber bilang, hasil penerbitan obligasi tadi akan digunakan membayar utang-utang jangka pendek perusahaan, terutama pinjaman lewat gadai saham alias repurchase agreement (Repo). Maklum, seiring dengan melorotnya harga saham emiten grup Bakrie, BNBR harus menambah jumlah saham yang menjadi jaminan repo itu. "Utang-utang repo itu sangat merepotkan kami," lanjutnya.
Merujuk laporan keuangan BNBR di kuartal I-2010, nilai repo BNBR sekitar Rp 314,99 miliar. Repo tersebut dilakukan, antara lain dengan Recapital Securities Rp 155 miliar, Bapindo Bumi Sekuritas Rp 50 miliar, Sekuritas Indopasific Investasi Rp 29 miliar, dan Panin Sekuritas Rp 25 miliar.
Adapun jumlah pinjaman jangka pendek BNBR, termasuk utang anak usaha, mencapai Rp 4,03 triliun. Utang BNBR yang harus dilunasi tahun ini, antara lain utang kepada Sinarmas Sekuritas Rp 685,41 miliar, Bank Sarasin-Rabo (Asia) Ltd Rp 455,75 miliar, dan Harus Capital Pte Ltd senilai Rp 82, 035 miliar. Pinjaman dari Bank Sarasin jatuh tempo 4 Desember 2010 dan utang ke Harus Capital berakhir 14 September ini.
Senior VP Corporate Affairs BNBR Sidharta Moersjid mengakui, BNBR sedang mengkaji penerbitan surat utang global. Namun, ia enggan menjelaskan nilai obligasi yang akan dirilis. "Pastinya dana itu akan dipakai untuk melunasi repo dan pinjaman jangka pendek," ujarnya, pekan lalu.
Direktur Keuangan UNSP Harry Nadir juga mengakui bahwa perusahaannya berniat menerbitkan obligasi global. Rencananya, dana hasil penjualan surat utang itu akan digunakan melunasi pinjaman yang jatuh tempo tahun depan, senilai US$ 160 juta. Namun, Harry belum bisa memastikan waktu penerbitan dan nilai obligasi yang akan dijual itu. "Minimal US$ 160 juta," ujarnya pada KONTAN, beberapa waktu lalu.
Pengakuan berbeda datang dari Direktur Keuangan ENRG Didit Ratam. Menurut Didit, pihaknya belum punya rencana menerbitkan obligasi global dalam waktu dekat ini. "Kami tidak punya pinjaman jatuh tempo tahun ini," tampiknya, kemarin (17/8).
Pengamat pasar modal Irwan Ariston Napitupulu menilai, rencana grup Bakrie merilis obligasi global bisa menjadi pedang bermata dua. Di satu sisi, jika obligasi itu diminati investor asing, berarti kepercayaan investor asing terhadap grup Bakrie masih ada.
Sebaliknya, jika asing meminta kupon tinggi plus jaminan aset yang bagus, penerbitan obligasi ini justru akan membebani perusahaan. "Investor juga jadi takut pegang saham grup Bakrie," kata Irwan. LINK
Kamis, 19 Agustus 2010
Mandiri Sekuritas Weekly Debt Research (9-13 Aug-2010)
Taking the high road?
Review: high volatility. Volatility in the rupiah bond market increased during the week. After extending the rally in the first three days of the week, bond prices dropped significantly on Thursday before closing slightly higher at the end of the week. The 10-year government bond yield fell to a fresh low of 7.90% on Wednesday before rising to 8.1% on Thursday. Overall average government bond prices fell 0.59%, according to Mandiri Sekuritas Government Bond Index. Thus, total return investing in the government bonds is 16.6% year to date with average yield to maturity! up by 12 bps to 8.86%. The average return in the last 8 years was 15.6% p.a. In terms of USD, total return was higher to 21.4% as rupiah strengthened significantly this year.
Transaction volume was relatively high. Total value of the transaction in the secondary bond market was Rp5.9tn (vs. Rp5.5tn on the previous week) on average per day. The most actively traded security was the newly issued long-end series such as the 11-year FR53 and the 21-year FR54; both comprising about 16% of the total trading volume during the week. The FR53 was traded at 99.9, down by 1.9 percentage points yielding 8.22% from a week earlier. Meanwhile, the FR54 was down by 2.0 percentage points to 103.25, yielding 9.29%. Our fa ir prices for those bonds are 98.95 and 103.53, thus we think FR53 is traded above its face value, meanwhile the FR54 looks attractive.
What’s new?
The government plans to reduce T-bill (SPN) issuances. After announcing the plan to cut its remaining 2010 debt issue by Rp15tn (as budget deficit expected to narrow to 1.5% of GDP from earlier projection of 2.1%), director general of government debt management said Thursday that the government will reduce T-bill (SPN) issuance this year. We think there are two views on the plan, in my opinion: (1) The government is trying to reduce re! financing risk as there will be Rp65tn bonds maturing in 2011. Another action to mitigate refinancing risk is to use excess cash to buyback bonds, and switch bonds frequently. The Government bought back Rp168bn of bonds with a maturity date of Nov. 20, 2012 on Thursday (2) The government started to worry about strong foreign capital inflows. Demand for SPN from foreigners has been very strong after Bank Indonesia introduced mandatory 1-month holding period for its SBIs. Consequently, SPN attracted strong bids i.e. Rp7.5tn on average during auctions in the last three months. Due to the strong demand, yield of the SPN has also been below BI rate. In the last auction, the average yield awarded was 5.8% vs. BI rate of 6.5%. As the 1-year LIBOR is still low (i.e. 0.37%) and 1-year currency swap is 5.3% foreigners will still get positive result investing in SPN. The government’s plan to reduce SPN issuance might trigger yield curve to steepen as the short-term bond yield supply will be less while demand is still high. However, assuming that CDS 1 year (72.8bps) and currency swap rate are stable, the SPN yield of 5.8% will discourage arbitrage motive. Thus we think the downside yield for SPN is also limited, unless investors have naked position. Long term average of the yield of SPN 1 year vs. T-bill 1year is 7.99ppt! vs. curre ntly the spread is only 5.7ppt.
Bond auction result: total bid was still high. Total bid on the bond auction on Tuesday was still high reaching Rp17.2tn- higher than in the previous auction of Rp13.4tn. Demand for the short-term paper was still impressive with the bid for the SPN20110707 reaching Rp7.9tn or almost 46% of total bids. The average yields awarded for the SPN20110707, FR27, FR53 and FR54 were 5.84%, 7.42%, 7.96% and 8.94%, with the highest yields being 5.84%, 7.47%, 8% and 8.97% respectively. Thus, the government has issued Rp135.2tn (incl. global bonds issuances i.e. US$2bn) or almost 8! 3% of the new total target to finance budget deficit.
The Federal Reserve renewed its purchases of long end government debt. The U.S. Treasuries market rose after the Federal Reserve said it would renew its purchases of government debt, in a bold step to avert a double-dip recession. The Fed will deploy money from maturing agency bonds and mortgage-backed securities to buy long-dated Treasuries that are estimated to be between $10bn and $20bn a month from its mortgage assets to Treasuries. This action make the yield spre! ad betwee n two-year and 10-year tenors to shrink to 225 bps, the smallest margin since May 2009- long term average spread is 139bps. This also gives a spread between the 10 year rupiah bond against US Treasury note rose to 544bps. The average long term spread is 721bps, while historically when the spread is below 500bps, bond prices usually decreased
Review: high volatility. Volatility in the rupiah bond market increased during the week. After extending the rally in the first three days of the week, bond prices dropped significantly on Thursday before closing slightly higher at the end of the week. The 10-year government bond yield fell to a fresh low of 7.90% on Wednesday before rising to 8.1% on Thursday. Overall average government bond prices fell 0.59%, according to Mandiri Sekuritas Government Bond Index. Thus, total return investing in the government bonds is 16.6% year to date with average yield to maturity! up by 12 bps to 8.86%. The average return in the last 8 years was 15.6% p.a. In terms of USD, total return was higher to 21.4% as rupiah strengthened significantly this year.
Transaction volume was relatively high. Total value of the transaction in the secondary bond market was Rp5.9tn (vs. Rp5.5tn on the previous week) on average per day. The most actively traded security was the newly issued long-end series such as the 11-year FR53 and the 21-year FR54; both comprising about 16% of the total trading volume during the week. The FR53 was traded at 99.9, down by 1.9 percentage points yielding 8.22% from a week earlier. Meanwhile, the FR54 was down by 2.0 percentage points to 103.25, yielding 9.29%. Our fa ir prices for those bonds are 98.95 and 103.53, thus we think FR53 is traded above its face value, meanwhile the FR54 looks attractive.
What’s new?
The government plans to reduce T-bill (SPN) issuances. After announcing the plan to cut its remaining 2010 debt issue by Rp15tn (as budget deficit expected to narrow to 1.5% of GDP from earlier projection of 2.1%), director general of government debt management said Thursday that the government will reduce T-bill (SPN) issuance this year. We think there are two views on the plan, in my opinion: (1) The government is trying to reduce re! financing risk as there will be Rp65tn bonds maturing in 2011. Another action to mitigate refinancing risk is to use excess cash to buyback bonds, and switch bonds frequently. The Government bought back Rp168bn of bonds with a maturity date of Nov. 20, 2012 on Thursday (2) The government started to worry about strong foreign capital inflows. Demand for SPN from foreigners has been very strong after Bank Indonesia introduced mandatory 1-month holding period for its SBIs. Consequently, SPN attracted strong bids i.e. Rp7.5tn on average during auctions in the last three months. Due to the strong demand, yield of the SPN has also been below BI rate. In the last auction, the average yield awarded was 5.8% vs. BI rate of 6.5%. As the 1-year LIBOR is still low (i.e. 0.37%) and 1-year currency swap is 5.3% foreigners will still get positive result investing in SPN. The government’s plan to reduce SPN issuance might trigger yield curve to steepen as the short-term bond yield supply will be less while demand is still high. However, assuming that CDS 1 year (72.8bps) and currency swap rate are stable, the SPN yield of 5.8% will discourage arbitrage motive. Thus we think the downside yield for SPN is also limited, unless investors have naked position. Long term average of the yield of SPN 1 year vs. T-bill 1year is 7.99ppt! vs. curre ntly the spread is only 5.7ppt.
Bond auction result: total bid was still high. Total bid on the bond auction on Tuesday was still high reaching Rp17.2tn- higher than in the previous auction of Rp13.4tn. Demand for the short-term paper was still impressive with the bid for the SPN20110707 reaching Rp7.9tn or almost 46% of total bids. The average yields awarded for the SPN20110707, FR27, FR53 and FR54 were 5.84%, 7.42%, 7.96% and 8.94%, with the highest yields being 5.84%, 7.47%, 8% and 8.97% respectively. Thus, the government has issued Rp135.2tn (incl. global bonds issuances i.e. US$2bn) or almost 8! 3% of the new total target to finance budget deficit.
The Federal Reserve renewed its purchases of long end government debt. The U.S. Treasuries market rose after the Federal Reserve said it would renew its purchases of government debt, in a bold step to avert a double-dip recession. The Fed will deploy money from maturing agency bonds and mortgage-backed securities to buy long-dated Treasuries that are estimated to be between $10bn and $20bn a month from its mortgage assets to Treasuries. This action make the yield spre! ad betwee n two-year and 10-year tenors to shrink to 225 bps, the smallest margin since May 2009- long term average spread is 139bps. This also gives a spread between the 10 year rupiah bond against US Treasury note rose to 544bps. The average long term spread is 721bps, while historically when the spread is below 500bps, bond prices usually decreased
Mandiri Sekuritas UNVR: Look at risk-adjusted return
UNVR posted 1H10 net profit of Rp2.4tn (+13.9%yoy, -19.1%qoq), in line with our and consensus estimates. Net profit’s qoq decline was due to the jump in selling expenses of 27.5%yoy and 16.3%qoq. Our observation on major consumer goods stocks revealed that UNVR has the highest absolute share price return of 28.1% CAGR00-10, and highest risk-adjusted return of 4.4x using Sharpe ratio. Incorporating dividend payment, this ratio could be higher as it usually pays rich dividend payout of 80-100! %. However, at current price, the stock is trading at PER10-11F of 34.5-29.1x, which we believe has already incorporated UNVR strong fundamental and share price performance. Therefore, we have a Neutral call at TP of Rp16,000/share.
1H10 results were in line with expectations. Unilever posted 1H10 net income of Rp2.4tn (+13.9%yoy, -19.1%qoq). These figures represent some 48% of our and consensus estimates. Despite of revenue growth, operating profit contracted qoq mainly due to higher promotional expenses that rose by 27.5%yoy and 16.3%qoq.
Share price reflects fundamental performance. Our observation on major consumer goods companies in Indonesia and abroad revealed that UNVR delivered the highest share price return since 2000 with CAGR of 28.1%, compared with local peers average of 12.3%, and international peers of 2.6%. Note that this calculation underestimates UNVR true performance as it ignores dividend payment that the company usually pays at 80-100% payout ratio, aga! in, highest among its peers.
Highest Sharpe ratio (risk adjusted return). Still from the same observation, we found out that UNVR has the highest risk-adjusted return calculated using Sharpe ratio (stock price return in excess of risk-free rate, divided by standard deviation of stock price return) for 2000-2010 period. Its 4.4x Sharpe ratio is significantly higher than its local peers’ average of 0.6x and international peers of -0.2x. Highest absolute and risk-adjusted return, as well as solid fundamenta! l perform ance has become justification for the stock to be one of investors’ favorite holding so far.
Neutral recommendation. Our DCF valuation with WACC of 11.5% and TG rate of 7.0% results in TP of Rp16,000/share. At our TP, the stock is trading at PER10-11F of 33.2-28.1x, a premium to its peers to compensate for its strong fundamental performance and high Sharpe ratio. At present, we view that investors have priced in the positives of UNVR. Upside risk to our TP is investors’ bigger trust on UNVR as a safe-heaven stock, which is a very subjective assessment.
1H10 results were in line with expectations. Unilever posted 1H10 net income of Rp2.4tn (+13.9%yoy, -19.1%qoq). These figures represent some 48% of our and consensus estimates. Despite of revenue growth, operating profit contracted qoq mainly due to higher promotional expenses that rose by 27.5%yoy and 16.3%qoq.
Share price reflects fundamental performance. Our observation on major consumer goods companies in Indonesia and abroad revealed that UNVR delivered the highest share price return since 2000 with CAGR of 28.1%, compared with local peers average of 12.3%, and international peers of 2.6%. Note that this calculation underestimates UNVR true performance as it ignores dividend payment that the company usually pays at 80-100% payout ratio, aga! in, highest among its peers.
Highest Sharpe ratio (risk adjusted return). Still from the same observation, we found out that UNVR has the highest risk-adjusted return calculated using Sharpe ratio (stock price return in excess of risk-free rate, divided by standard deviation of stock price return) for 2000-2010 period. Its 4.4x Sharpe ratio is significantly higher than its local peers’ average of 0.6x and international peers of -0.2x. Highest absolute and risk-adjusted return, as well as solid fundamenta! l perform ance has become justification for the stock to be one of investors’ favorite holding so far.
Neutral recommendation. Our DCF valuation with WACC of 11.5% and TG rate of 7.0% results in TP of Rp16,000/share. At our TP, the stock is trading at PER10-11F of 33.2-28.1x, a premium to its peers to compensate for its strong fundamental performance and high Sharpe ratio. At present, we view that investors have priced in the positives of UNVR. Upside risk to our TP is investors’ bigger trust on UNVR as a safe-heaven stock, which is a very subjective assessment.
UBS Indosat (Buy PT 6,900): Operational inline, bottom line disappoints
H110 EBITDA came in at Rp4.6 tn (+7% YoY) represents 46% of UBS 2010 estimate of Rp10.2 tn. H110 net income accounts for only 19% of UBS 2010 forecast of Rp1.5 tn.
Operationsl-wise, ISAT H110 result is in-line with UBS and Street's estimates. ISAT's H110 net income, however, is below expectations. We believe this could be due to one-off charges below the operating line. ISAT is currently undergoing a limited review, and the full H110 financials will be released on Aug 24, 2010 when the management will also host a conference call – details tba.
Operationsl-wise, ISAT H110 result is in-line with UBS and Street's estimates. ISAT's H110 net income, however, is below expectations. We believe this could be due to one-off charges below the operating line. ISAT is currently undergoing a limited review, and the full H110 financials will be released on Aug 24, 2010 when the management will also host a conference call – details tba.
Deutsche Indo Telecom : Good 1H10 operating results, but mixed NP
Major Indonesian telecom operators have released their 1H10 results (see table below for details). They had good operating results. On qoq basis, revenue rose by 4.6% to Rp26.0tr with most of the growth coming from Telkom's 5.7% increase followed by Indosat's 4.1%. Meanwhile EBITDA rose to Rp14.4tr (+7.5% qoq) with Indosat growing at slowest pace of 6.8% qoq (vs Telkom's 7.7% and XL's 7.8%). However, at NP line, it is a mixed bag. While the industry delivered an 8.4% qoq increase in NP; Indosat saw a reduction of 96.7% qoq to Rp9bn in 2Q10. This is the worst results amongst its peers which may be due to inefficient asset turnover, high depreciation charges and interest costs. On the flip side, XL had highest NP growth qoq of 21.3% followed by Telkom's 16.2%.
On yoy basis, the industry reported a revenue of Rp50.8tr (+9.2% yoy), mostly driven by XL's 34.7% increase in revenue to Rp8.4tr. While Telkom and Indosat had similar revenue growth trends of 5.1% and 5.8%. Industry EBITDA of Rp27.8tr is up 10.6% yoy - a healthy growth considering the still intense competition in cellular space.
However, at NP level, the industry reported a decline of 1.8% yoy to Rp7.6tr. Mostly this is due to Indosat's -71.5% decline in NP to Rp287bn (from 1H09 of Rp1.0tr). On the back of this, we retain our BUY calls on Telkom and XL Axiata. While XL remains
most attractive in terms of growth and value, Telkom is our top pick as it has better stock trading liquidity.
On yoy basis, the industry reported a revenue of Rp50.8tr (+9.2% yoy), mostly driven by XL's 34.7% increase in revenue to Rp8.4tr. While Telkom and Indosat had similar revenue growth trends of 5.1% and 5.8%. Industry EBITDA of Rp27.8tr is up 10.6% yoy - a healthy growth considering the still intense competition in cellular space.
However, at NP level, the industry reported a decline of 1.8% yoy to Rp7.6tr. Mostly this is due to Indosat's -71.5% decline in NP to Rp287bn (from 1H09 of Rp1.0tr). On the back of this, we retain our BUY calls on Telkom and XL Axiata. While XL remains
most attractive in terms of growth and value, Telkom is our top pick as it has better stock trading liquidity.
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