China's official manufacturing index rose smartly in February, gaining for the third month in a row and suggesting the country could be on the brink of a recovery despite a slump in global demand.The official purchasing managers' index (PMI), released on Wednesday, rose to 49.0 from 45.3 in January, the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing (CFLP) said.
It was the fifth straight month that the index was below the no-change line of 50 that marks the difference between expansion and contraction. But the index is now well clear of a record low of 38.8 plumbed in November.
"China's economy is possibly on the road to a sustainable recovery," said Zhang Liqun, a government economist who comments on the survey for the logistics federation. "Policies are beginning to show their effectiveness, supporting quite fast economic growth," he said. more...
Rabu, 04 Maret 2009
Associated Press World stocks recover on China stimulus hopes
LONDON (AP) -- Stock markets in Europe and Asia rebounded Wednesday ahead of an expected solid opening on Wall Street amid mounting hopes that China will soon announce a big stimulus package that could help limit the length and depth of the recession in the industrialized world.A legislative meeting starts Thursday in China and top of the agenda is what the government can do to lift growth rates, which have fallen in the wake of the global economic downturn. As one of the few major economies still expanding, China is being closely watched amid hopes its demand and trade can help the world weather the most severe global slowdown in decades.
"The Chinese stimulus move has been a positive thing but of course the things that have driven the markets lower haven't gone away: corporate earnings, the state of the U.S. economy and when the stimulus package will start gaining traction and the level of dividends," said Richard Hunter, equities strategist at stockbrokers Hargreaves Lansdown. more...
"The Chinese stimulus move has been a positive thing but of course the things that have driven the markets lower haven't gone away: corporate earnings, the state of the U.S. economy and when the stimulus package will start gaining traction and the level of dividends," said Richard Hunter, equities strategist at stockbrokers Hargreaves Lansdown. more...
CLSA Indo Tambang, 17% yield, 3.2x PE, net cash
Research Today: Indo Tambang, 17% yield, 3.2x PE, net cash
Seriously, I think Mr Warren Buffet will like these numbers:
3x 09CL, ROE 41%, Divy yield at a whopping 16.8% and most importantly net CASH (Cash bal of US$222mn Vs mkt cap of $960m).
No wonder this is our in house coal guru Olie top pick in the sector. It is just the numbers are just simply to compelling. Sure we have seen some weakness in coal prices as power consumption weakens in China, the good news is ITM has already contracted 57% of 20.5mn output (we assume only 19mn tonnes output, so % of coal already contracted to our output forecast is as high as 61.5%) at a very respectable price of US$82/ton. Managements conservative policy to lock in coal price early has really paid off! BTW - this is the one of handful of companies I have seen in the last few months that actually posted a gain in on hedging cost and price. Down 75% from peak, this stock is on fire sale. BUY!
Key points from the report:
Management shared their optimism production and cost outlook but was cautious in guiding for price prospect in an analyst meeting yesterday.
The management is confident that ITM could achieve 16% YoY production growth given available equipment, better data, and improved water management while also expect some cost reduction this year due to lower fuel price.
On thermal coal price outlook, the management see demand could weaken by some 2% to 4% this year. They also expect no supply growth from Indonesia and potential supply reduction from Russia and the US, but see risk soft-coking coal supplying thermal coal market.
At this juncture, we remain comfortable with our earnings forecast for ITM as we have been conservative on volume and costs, and price, to some extent.
We continue to believe it is best to stick with defensive name such as ITM that has high portion of contracted tonnage and robust balance sheet. We expect dividend to flow soon, yielding an industry high of 17%.
Seriously, I think Mr Warren Buffet will like these numbers:
3x 09CL, ROE 41%, Divy yield at a whopping 16.8% and most importantly net CASH (Cash bal of US$222mn Vs mkt cap of $960m).
No wonder this is our in house coal guru Olie top pick in the sector. It is just the numbers are just simply to compelling. Sure we have seen some weakness in coal prices as power consumption weakens in China, the good news is ITM has already contracted 57% of 20.5mn output (we assume only 19mn tonnes output, so % of coal already contracted to our output forecast is as high as 61.5%) at a very respectable price of US$82/ton. Managements conservative policy to lock in coal price early has really paid off! BTW - this is the one of handful of companies I have seen in the last few months that actually posted a gain in on hedging cost and price. Down 75% from peak, this stock is on fire sale. BUY!
Key points from the report:
Management shared their optimism production and cost outlook but was cautious in guiding for price prospect in an analyst meeting yesterday.
The management is confident that ITM could achieve 16% YoY production growth given available equipment, better data, and improved water management while also expect some cost reduction this year due to lower fuel price.
On thermal coal price outlook, the management see demand could weaken by some 2% to 4% this year. They also expect no supply growth from Indonesia and potential supply reduction from Russia and the US, but see risk soft-coking coal supplying thermal coal market.
At this juncture, we remain comfortable with our earnings forecast for ITM as we have been conservative on volume and costs, and price, to some extent.
We continue to believe it is best to stick with defensive name such as ITM that has high portion of contracted tonnage and robust balance sheet. We expect dividend to flow soon, yielding an industry high of 17%.
Lautandhana from Daily Update
Komentar Bernanke Menggentarkan Investor, Indeks Kembali Melemah. Bursa AS belum dapat bangkit dari keterpurukannya, pasalnya indeks bursa AS kembali ditutup melemah walau sempat menguat diawal sesi perdagangan. Investor kembali melakukan aksi jual setelah gubernur the Fed, Ben S Bernanke memberikan komentarnya sebelum pertemuan panitia anggaran senat.
Bursa Eropa juga belum dapat bangkit, indeks DJ Euro Stoxx melemah 0,9%, sednagakn FTSE melemah 3,1%. Sektor perbankan kembali melemah setelah HSBC mengumumkan right issue senilai 12,5 milyar pounds.
Bursa Asia pagi ini bergerak negatif. Nikkei turun 1,1%, Kospi melemah 0,4%, St times turun 1,1%, dan KLCI turun 0,1%.
Bursa Indonesia hari ini diperkirakan masih akan bergerak volatile akibat masih banyaknya sentimen negatif dari luar. Tetap watch saham fundamental untuk potensi trading seperti PGAS, PTBA, UNTR.
Jasa Marga (JSMR) raih kredit
PT Jasa Marga Tbk meraih kredit untuk pengembangan PT Marga Nujyasumo Agung (MNA) senilai Rp1,15 triliun dan segera memfinalisasi pinjaman bagi perseroan senilai Rp6,32 triliun pada bulan depan.
Laba bersih Matahari (MPPA) 2008 tergerus 94%
PT Matahari Putra Prima Tbk mengindikasikan laba bersih perseroan pada tahun lalu tergerus 94% menjadi Rp10 miliar dari sebelumnya Rp180 miliar akibat kerugian valas yang tidak direalisasikan.
Bukit Asam (PTBA) akan bangun 2 pembangkit
PT Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam Tbk akan membangun dua pembangkit listrik untuk memenuhi kebutuhan listrik di internal perseroan.
Semen Gresik (SMGR) pangkas capex
PT Semen Gresik Tbk kembali akan memangkas belanja modal perseroan pada tahun ini, menyusul masih lambatnya laju perekonomian nasional dan dunia sehingga memengaruhi permintaan semen.
Bursa Eropa juga belum dapat bangkit, indeks DJ Euro Stoxx melemah 0,9%, sednagakn FTSE melemah 3,1%. Sektor perbankan kembali melemah setelah HSBC mengumumkan right issue senilai 12,5 milyar pounds.
Bursa Asia pagi ini bergerak negatif. Nikkei turun 1,1%, Kospi melemah 0,4%, St times turun 1,1%, dan KLCI turun 0,1%.
Bursa Indonesia hari ini diperkirakan masih akan bergerak volatile akibat masih banyaknya sentimen negatif dari luar. Tetap watch saham fundamental untuk potensi trading seperti PGAS, PTBA, UNTR.
Jasa Marga (JSMR) raih kredit
PT Jasa Marga Tbk meraih kredit untuk pengembangan PT Marga Nujyasumo Agung (MNA) senilai Rp1,15 triliun dan segera memfinalisasi pinjaman bagi perseroan senilai Rp6,32 triliun pada bulan depan.
Laba bersih Matahari (MPPA) 2008 tergerus 94%
PT Matahari Putra Prima Tbk mengindikasikan laba bersih perseroan pada tahun lalu tergerus 94% menjadi Rp10 miliar dari sebelumnya Rp180 miliar akibat kerugian valas yang tidak direalisasikan.
Bukit Asam (PTBA) akan bangun 2 pembangkit
PT Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam Tbk akan membangun dua pembangkit listrik untuk memenuhi kebutuhan listrik di internal perseroan.
Semen Gresik (SMGR) pangkas capex
PT Semen Gresik Tbk kembali akan memangkas belanja modal perseroan pada tahun ini, menyusul masih lambatnya laju perekonomian nasional dan dunia sehingga memengaruhi permintaan semen.
CIMB Lonsum Sumatra
According to a recent press release by Indofood Agri, Lonsum reported EBITDA of Rp1,488bn in FY08, above our estimate and consensus. Reasons were the monetising of forward sales in 4Q08 and less fertiliser application. Due to these reasons, Lonsum's EBITDA margin in 4Q08 was 28% seemingly better than AALI's EBITDA margin of 23%. However, we expect EBITDA margin to normalise to 25% in FY09. We revised our earnings estimates by 13-15% for FY08-09 as we take into account the better 4Q08 and forward sales. Maintain UNDERPERFORM with an unchanged target price of Rp3,100, still based on 8x CY10 earnings.
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