* U.S. stock index futures pointed to a higher open on Wall Street on Tuesday, with futures for the S&P 500 up 0.8 percent, Dow Jones futures 0.8 percent higher, and Nasdaq 100 up 1.1 percent at 0903 GMT.
* The U.S. Chicago PMI for March is due at 1345 GMT with economists in a Reuters survey forecasting a reading of 34.5 in the month compared with 35.2 in February.
* U.S. consumer confidence due out at 1400 GMT is expected to have edged up in March from the record low hit in February. Economists in a Reuters survey expect a reading of 28.0 compared with 25.0 in February.
* Bookseller Borders BGP.N posts quarterly results. Analysts expect the company to earn 95 cents a share, excluding items, down from $1.44 a year earlier, according to Reuters Estimates.
* No. 2 U.S. homebuilder Lennar Corp LEN.N reports fiscal first-quarter results. Analysts, on average, expect a deeper net loss as the company scrambles to sell off inventory in the face of a prolonged U.S. recession. They expect the company to post a loss of 69 cents. more...
Selasa, 31 Maret 2009
Mandiri Sekuritas Strategy Continued GDP downward revision
Continued GDP downward revision hampers JCI advancement
Despite the JCI (IDX)’s good performance year to date (+5%), and strong performance of coal and palm oil stocks, we think the drivers are more specific counter issues, not a general perception of sector picks. In 2Q09, we grew cautious on banks after NPL significantly rose from 3.2% (end Dec-08) to 4.2% (midweek March-09). Despite lingering uncertainty on the world economy, we prefer commodities as liquidity s! tarts to trickle, and recent failure on Gilts auction, and weak Treasury auction sparked doubts on currencies. Our technical analysts still see oil continuing its upward trajectory to US$67/bbl. Continued downward revision on 2009 GDP projection (Bank Indonesia last week for the third time cut its prediction to 3%-4%, with the likelihood the growth will be at the lower end), would impose hurdle on JCI advancement.
Despite strong run from coal and agriculture, real movers year to date are less-covered counters. Among these counters were Adaro Energy (+84%), Bayan Resources (+56%), Indika Energy (+39%), Kalbe Farma (+58%), and Gudang Garam (+38%). We attributed these counters performance, more on specific stock issues rather than general fundamentals movements. Other strong performers were Astra group of companies such as United Tractors (+47%), Astra Agro Lestari (+39%), and Astra International (+35%). As risk aversion remains and banking counters are a must avoid, the choices are limited, and these sectors (commodities and consumers) were favored for their defensive postures.
2Q09 : banks have to wait for NPL deterioration to stabilize. We were a supporter of banking sector as we expected banks (especially the big ones) to maintain their net interest margin on better bargaining position to their depositors, also to their borrowers due to the tight credit situation. However, NPL deteriorated faster than our expectations (we are expecting 200bps by year-end, already 100bps ytd) prompting us to take a wait-and-see mode until we see NPL has peaked out.
We remain in the confinement of commodities, while IDX is seen peaking at 1,500 level. We pick underperforming Bukit Asam (PTBA, Rp6,800, Buy, TP:Rp9,380), Indotambang (ITMG, Rp9,900, Buy, TP:Rp15,129) and outperformer such as Medco Energy (MEDC, Rp! 2,225, but, TP:Rp2,550). We still like Jasa Marga (JSMR, Rp900, Buy, TP:Rp1,250). And as the economy is still sliding, the IDX is expected to trade at 2009 PE range of 6.5x-8.5x (1,105-1,445), a bottom trading range based on 12-year PE band.
Despite the JCI (IDX)’s good performance year to date (+5%), and strong performance of coal and palm oil stocks, we think the drivers are more specific counter issues, not a general perception of sector picks. In 2Q09, we grew cautious on banks after NPL significantly rose from 3.2% (end Dec-08) to 4.2% (midweek March-09). Despite lingering uncertainty on the world economy, we prefer commodities as liquidity s! tarts to trickle, and recent failure on Gilts auction, and weak Treasury auction sparked doubts on currencies. Our technical analysts still see oil continuing its upward trajectory to US$67/bbl. Continued downward revision on 2009 GDP projection (Bank Indonesia last week for the third time cut its prediction to 3%-4%, with the likelihood the growth will be at the lower end), would impose hurdle on JCI advancement.
Despite strong run from coal and agriculture, real movers year to date are less-covered counters. Among these counters were Adaro Energy (+84%), Bayan Resources (+56%), Indika Energy (+39%), Kalbe Farma (+58%), and Gudang Garam (+38%). We attributed these counters performance, more on specific stock issues rather than general fundamentals movements. Other strong performers were Astra group of companies such as United Tractors (+47%), Astra Agro Lestari (+39%), and Astra International (+35%). As risk aversion remains and banking counters are a must avoid, the choices are limited, and these sectors (commodities and consumers) were favored for their defensive postures.
2Q09 : banks have to wait for NPL deterioration to stabilize. We were a supporter of banking sector as we expected banks (especially the big ones) to maintain their net interest margin on better bargaining position to their depositors, also to their borrowers due to the tight credit situation. However, NPL deteriorated faster than our expectations (we are expecting 200bps by year-end, already 100bps ytd) prompting us to take a wait-and-see mode until we see NPL has peaked out.
We remain in the confinement of commodities, while IDX is seen peaking at 1,500 level. We pick underperforming Bukit Asam (PTBA, Rp6,800, Buy, TP:Rp9,380), Indotambang (ITMG, Rp9,900, Buy, TP:Rp15,129) and outperformer such as Medco Energy (MEDC, Rp! 2,225, but, TP:Rp2,550). We still like Jasa Marga (JSMR, Rp900, Buy, TP:Rp1,250). And as the economy is still sliding, the IDX is expected to trade at 2009 PE range of 6.5x-8.5x (1,105-1,445), a bottom trading range based on 12-year PE band.
Associated Press Asian stock markets mixed ahead of G-20 summit
BANGKOK (AP) -- Asian markets were mixed Tuesday as investors were wary ahead of a Group of 20 leaders summit and a stream of earnings and data that are likely to confirm the global economy is still a mess.
The region's markets tumbled Monday as events in the U.S. signaled that ailing auto giants General Motors and Chrysler were being corralled into Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection by the Obama administration. But benchmarks are still up strongly for the month, reflecting a rally that some analysts say was driven largely window-dressing by big funds.
"There were a lot of big names active in the past month trying to talk up the market and improve performance because for many fund managers March is the last month of the financial year," said Arjuna Mahendran, head of Asian investment strategy at HSBC Private Bank in Singapore.
"That fed on itself but it didn't reflect anything fundamental. First quarter corporate results are bound to be downbeat and on the macroeconomic front, the situation is still very opaque," he said.
Japan's Nikkei 225 stock average reversed early gains to fall 84 points, or 1 percent, to 8,151 by afternoon trading, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng was up 39.77, or 0.3 percent, to 13,496.10 after diving nearly 5 percent on Monday.
In South Korea, where a central bank survey showed manufacturers were becoming less pessimistic, the Kospi was up 1.2 percent. Mainland China's Shanghai index was flat, Australia's index was down 0.6 percent, while Singapore's index rose 0.9 percent. more...
The region's markets tumbled Monday as events in the U.S. signaled that ailing auto giants General Motors and Chrysler were being corralled into Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection by the Obama administration. But benchmarks are still up strongly for the month, reflecting a rally that some analysts say was driven largely window-dressing by big funds.
"There were a lot of big names active in the past month trying to talk up the market and improve performance because for many fund managers March is the last month of the financial year," said Arjuna Mahendran, head of Asian investment strategy at HSBC Private Bank in Singapore.
"That fed on itself but it didn't reflect anything fundamental. First quarter corporate results are bound to be downbeat and on the macroeconomic front, the situation is still very opaque," he said.
Japan's Nikkei 225 stock average reversed early gains to fall 84 points, or 1 percent, to 8,151 by afternoon trading, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng was up 39.77, or 0.3 percent, to 13,496.10 after diving nearly 5 percent on Monday.
In South Korea, where a central bank survey showed manufacturers were becoming less pessimistic, the Kospi was up 1.2 percent. Mainland China's Shanghai index was flat, Australia's index was down 0.6 percent, while Singapore's index rose 0.9 percent. more...
Samuel Bakrie Telecom (BTEL)
Tighter Competition
• Inline with expectation. PT Bakrie Telecom (BTEL) mencatat pendapatan bersih Rp2.2 triliun, naik 71% YoY, inline dengan estimasi kami. Hal ini didukung oleh penambahan pelanggan sebesar 91% (menjadi 7.3 juta di YE08). Laba operasi tumbuh 19% YoY, menjadi Rp378 miliar (vs estimasi kami Rp342 miliar). Laba bersih turun 5% menjadi Rp136 miliar, akibat forex loss sebesar Rp44 miliar. Bila tidak memperhitungkan forex loss, laba bersih sesuai dengan ekspektasi kami.
• Margin in pressure. Secara kuartalan, EBITDA margin turun menjadi 37% di 4Q08 vs 39.2% di 3Q08. Beban depresiasi, maintenance dan marketing naik berturutturut 20%, 20% dan 19% QoQ, akibat bertambahnya network coverage sebanyak 30 kota selama FY08 yang masih belum optimal dalam penggunaannya dan turunnya ARPU akibat penetrasi pasar sehingga semakin menekan margin.
• Tighter competition in CDMA. Sejak akhir tahun 2008, TLKM dengan brand Flexi dan Esia mulai bersaing dengan memperkenalkan free call ( on net) untuk lokal. Flexi memberi promo free call di JBJB (Jakarta, Banten, Jawa Barat) pangsa pasar utama BTEL, sementara BTEL memberlakukan promo ini di luar JBJB.
• Maintain BUY, TP Rp105/share. Kami menurunkan target harga BTEL menjadi Rp105/saham (dari sebelumnya Rp125/saham), mencerminkan P/E’09E 12.0x dan PBV’09E 0.6x. Kami menurunkan proyeksi margin ke level yang lebih moderat, akibat makin ketatnya persaingan. Kami juga tetap cautious dengan short term investment BTEL. MAINTAIN BUY
Forecast and Valuation (at closing price Rp50)
• Inline with expectation. PT Bakrie Telecom (BTEL) mencatat pendapatan bersih Rp2.2 triliun, naik 71% YoY, inline dengan estimasi kami. Hal ini didukung oleh penambahan pelanggan sebesar 91% (menjadi 7.3 juta di YE08). Laba operasi tumbuh 19% YoY, menjadi Rp378 miliar (vs estimasi kami Rp342 miliar). Laba bersih turun 5% menjadi Rp136 miliar, akibat forex loss sebesar Rp44 miliar. Bila tidak memperhitungkan forex loss, laba bersih sesuai dengan ekspektasi kami.
• Margin in pressure. Secara kuartalan, EBITDA margin turun menjadi 37% di 4Q08 vs 39.2% di 3Q08. Beban depresiasi, maintenance dan marketing naik berturutturut 20%, 20% dan 19% QoQ, akibat bertambahnya network coverage sebanyak 30 kota selama FY08 yang masih belum optimal dalam penggunaannya dan turunnya ARPU akibat penetrasi pasar sehingga semakin menekan margin.
• Tighter competition in CDMA. Sejak akhir tahun 2008, TLKM dengan brand Flexi dan Esia mulai bersaing dengan memperkenalkan free call ( on net) untuk lokal. Flexi memberi promo free call di JBJB (Jakarta, Banten, Jawa Barat) pangsa pasar utama BTEL, sementara BTEL memberlakukan promo ini di luar JBJB.
• Maintain BUY, TP Rp105/share. Kami menurunkan target harga BTEL menjadi Rp105/saham (dari sebelumnya Rp125/saham), mencerminkan P/E’09E 12.0x dan PBV’09E 0.6x. Kami menurunkan proyeksi margin ke level yang lebih moderat, akibat makin ketatnya persaingan. Kami juga tetap cautious dengan short term investment BTEL. MAINTAIN BUY
Forecast and Valuation (at closing price Rp50)
Associated Press Oil stays below $50 in Asia over economic jitters
KUALA LUMPUR, Malaysia (AP) -- Oil prices edged up Tuesday in Asia but remained below $50 a barrel as fears of a major automaker bankruptcy in the U.S. sparked renewed jitters over the global economy.Benchmark crude for May delivery rose 71 cents to $49.12 by midday in Asian electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract fell more than 7.6 percent, or $3.97, to settle at $48.41 on Monday.
Traders said the White House's move on Monday to refuse further long-term federal bailouts for General Motors Corp. and Chrysler cast a cloud over the struggling auto industry and raised concerns for the overall economy.
"A possible bankruptcy threatening GM and Chrysler caused the stock market to tumble and worries about the economy have returned to the forefront," said Victor Shum, an energy analyst at consultancy Purvin & Gertz in Singapore. more...
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