Telecommunications
Sector Note - Shifting sands - by Kelvin Goh CFA
During our recent conversations with Excelcomindo, we gathered that the telco's 4Q08 revenue contracted qoq vs. the +12% qoq for Telkomsel due to high churns and lower usage, especially outside Java. We also believe that the outlook for FY09 is weak, as reflected by the sharp reduction in its capex from US$1.25bn in FY08 to US$300m-500m in FY09. This supports our view that Telkomsel is regaining dominance. We also believe that as tariffs stabilise and equalise among all the players, consumers will gravitate towards the market leader, which is Telkomsel. Telkom remains our top Indonesian telco pick with an OUTPERFORM rating and DCF-based target price of Rp7,300. Indosat remains a NEUTRAL as it lacks catalysts, with a DCF-based target price of Rp4,900.
Tidak ada komentar:
Posting Komentar