Indonesia’ January cement demand started with a weaker tone (-4% YoY and -5% MoM), rather than a drop. Although it is still too early, we believe that this is due to the resiliency of the demand structure (given the low per capita consumption).
The positive news (the key reasons why we are positive on the sector) is pricing power. January data recorded a 7% MoM increase, which in reality, was around three months lag. This would mean that the increase took place during the soft month.
We look for flat YoY growth, with a recovery expected in 2H09,and therefore January data look satisfactory.
Demand softened across the board, but as expected, the Java areas underperformed the region given the nature of the demand gearing more towards infrastructure-related projects.
Due to its capacity, Semen Gresik’ market share slightly declined while Indocement’ rose slightly in January 2009. Maintain OUTPERFORM on both INTP and SMGR.
Tidak ada komentar:
Posting Komentar