March 3 (Bloomberg) -- Commodity exports from Australia, the world’s largest shipper of iron ore, coal and wool, will drop for the first time in six years, driving down earnings at producers BHP Billiton Ltd. and Rio Tinto Group.
Sales may fall 17 percent from a record to A$162 billion ($102 billion) in the 12 months ending June 30, 2010, the Canberra-based Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics said today in a report. That compares with a revised forecast of A$196 billion for this fiscal year.
Commodity prices plunged by the most in more than 50 years in 2008, forcing Rio and BHP to cut output and halt mining. The bureau said global economic growth will drop to 0.6 percent in 2009, before a rebound in China and India helps push growth to 3 percent in 2010, spurring demand for materials.
“In late 2009 we would see stronger signs of demand and that would be positive for commodities,” said David Moore, a commodity strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia in Sydney. “The policy stimulus in China is working more quickly than in other economies.” more...
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