Adam Worthington (analyst) is hearing that Adaro may soon purchase a barging company from the founding shareholders. Deal size is going to be more than US$100mn vs, market cap of US$2.0bn. Strategically this appears sensible as owning more of your supply chain is better than less. However, he feels that investors (without minority approval) will treat the stock with contempt if the valuation is unreasonable. As a rough guide we understand that in 2008 that the replacement cost for a tug and barge (standard 300ft/8000t capacity) was about US$2.4. With steel prices coming under pressure, we would expect this replacement cost to be lower in current markets. Macquarie rates the stock as Outperform on 4.7x ’09 P/E, 2.5x ’09 EV/EBITDA, and Rp1,000/share DCF.
Tidak ada komentar:
Posting Komentar