CIMB AALI - Anticipating a firmer 2H

In line, due to seasonality. 1Q09 net profit of Rp218bn (-75% yoy) is only 12% of
our full-year forecast and 14% of consensus. Nevertheless, the results are
considered in line as we are expecting 1H09 to be weaker than 2H09, due to
production seasonality and lower costs expected in 2H09. Costs should ease in
2H09, from lower fertiliser prices. Fertilisers used in 1H09 were purchased at the
end of 2008, when prices were still high. AALI’s ex-factory cost of Rp3,177/kg has
not declined from 4Q08 levels, remaining at 21% above 2008 levels. Fertiliser costs
comprised 37% of ex-factory costs in 1Q09, up from 25% in FY08.

Expect flat yoy production this year. 1Q09 FFB production was down 10% yoy to
comprise 23% of our full-year forecast. This should have been due to normalised
weather patterns, as FFB production in 1H typically accounts for 40-45% of full-year
production. Last year was an anomalous year due to higher-than-expected rainfall;
hence, production in 1H08 accounted for 50% of full-year production. The company
is maintaining its full-year forecast of flat CPO production of 980k-990k tonnes.

Balance sheet robust. The company remains debt-free with an ample cash
position of Rp1.1tr.

Maintain NEUTRAL. At this juncture, we are maintaining our NEUTRAL rating and
target price of Rp16,900, still based on 12x CY10 earnings. AALI is the most
expensive of the planters under our coverage, trading at US$11,060 EV/ha or an
83-172% premium to peers.