Quick takes - The good and bad of March sales - by Erwan Teguh
(RALS IJ / RALS.JK, OUTPERFORM - Maintained, Rp485 - Tgt. Rp560, Consumer)
Ramayana's March sales were 12% below target with same-store growth plunging to -8.9% yoy and weakness in all geographies. This was the worst start of the year for Ramayana in over five years. On a monthly basis, a better trend has emerged with SSG improving from -13% in Feb 09 to -11% in Mar 09, and gross margins picking up 70bp mom. Ex-Java SSG also rebounded, key since this area contributes over 40% of sales and close to 50% of gross profit. The outlook is improving, which is the reason we are maintaining our forecasts and Rp560 target price (DCF with WACC of 15.8%), implying 10.6x and 8x CY09-10 earnings. Maintain Outperform.
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