Our analyst Hadi wrote an interesting report on Indo power plant update. The key message is that power plant projects are making progress in Indonesia and the country will produce 76% more electricity by 2012.
Potential beneficiaries: PTBA, ADRO, INDY, BUMI, PGAS , INTP, SMGR, SMCB IJ, and WIKA.
Key points from the report:
Indonesia has 30 GW of power plants which capable of serving only 60% of the population.
At 539/kWh per capita, the country’s electricity consumption would be among the lowest in the region.
Thus the country is developing 76 new power plants with total capacity of 15.7GW, of which 10GW will be state power plants (PLN) and 5.7GW will be owned by IPP.
7.6GW or 50% of the projects already under construction.
We believe Indonesia will have 45GW total installed capacity by 2012. Assuming 85% utilization rate that means an increase of 76% from current.
Delays last year: (1) rising cost but this has been gradually resolved as material prices normalized. (2) Financing: the govt is also preparing additional guarantee letter for the IPPs to make these projects more bankable. After intense negotiations the Chinese has finally agreed to resume the draw downs (but restricted to their lending limit in Indo).
For additional financing support the govt has convinced local banks to increase participation. The major banks are BBNI, BBRI, BMRI, and BBCA.
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