Macquarie commodities team keeps its cautious outlook on thermal coal, but recent developments on China coal inventory and price gap between domestic and export look encouraging to me. China’s thermal coal inventory is at three year low, while export price is now cheaper than domestic. This could point to an increased importation of thermal coal by China in the short term. My personal favourite coal names are Bumi Resources and Adaro.
Figure 1. China thermal coal inventory
Figure 2. Price gap between domestic and import for thermal coal
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