Bloomberg Oil Rises to 6-Month High as U.S. Consumer Confidence Gains

May 26 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil rose to a six-month high after a report showed that U.S. consumer confidence jumped, signaling demand may rebound.

Oil followed gains in the stock market after the Conference Board’s sentiment index surged to 54.9, more than forecast and the biggest increase since 2003, the New York-based research group said today. Oil futures declined earlier on speculation OPEC will maintain production quotas at a meeting this week.

“History shows that a jump in consumer confidence signals an economic rebound,” said Bill O’Grady, chief markets strategist at Confluence Investment Management in St. Louis. “The report signals that if the recession isn’t over already, it will be ending soon, which is bullish for oil.”

Crude oil for July delivery rose 78 cents, or 1.3 percent, to $62.45 a barrel at 2:50 p.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the highest settlement since Nov. 5. Prices are up 40 percent this year. U.S. floor trading was shut yesterday for the Memorial Day holiday.

U.S. Inventories
U.S. crude oil supplies probably rose 50,000 barrels in the week ended May 22 from 368.5 million the previous week, according to the median of 10 estimates by analysts before an Energy Department report this week. Stockpiles climbed to 375.3 million during the week ended May 1, the highest since 1990, according to a May 6 report from the Energy Department.

Total U.S. daily fuel consumption averaged 18.3 million barrels in the four weeks ended May 15, down 7.6 percent from a year earlier, the department said last week.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries should “stay the course” on output policy, Saudi Oil Minister Ali al- Naimi said today in Vienna, where the group meets on May 28. A Persian Gulf oil official familiar with the matter said yesterday that OPEC won’t change its quotas. more...