Sabtu, 02 Mei 2009

CLSA - 1Q09 Results

Our analyst Olie looked at 1Q09 results in the resource sector. Adaro (ADRO IJ), Indika (INDY IJ), and Aneka Tambang (ANTM IJ) results were generally in line with expectations.

Olie warns that resource companies no longer look cheap from valuation standpoint. Sales desk here is a big believer in inflation scenario and would argue that we should be buying commodity stocks when the PE looks expensive (trough cycle).

Key points from the report:
ADRO posted Rp1,145bn in net profit during 1Q09, in line, a sharp turnaround from a net loss of Rp12bn a year ago.
INDY: in line, net profit Rp451bn in 1Q09, +61% YoY, 36% of our FY.
The key here is not to annualize coal companies 1Q09 numbers due to higher-priced-carry-over-contracts from last year.
ANTM: poor 1Q09 as expected, net profit of Rp90bn in 1Q09, -87% YoY, the result accounted some 28% of FY09, but only 15% of consensus.
On commodity price recovery, Indo Tambang (ITMG IJ) is the top pick in the coal sector, thanks to high export portion and operating leverage.

Perusahaan Gas (PGAS IJ) 1Q09 looks strong, by Swati
1Q09 numbers appear excellent with Rp1.2tn net income. Our full year is Rp 4.2tn. We would revise our volume number upwards. Besides with rupiah strengthening, forex losses should reverse.

Interestingly, PGAS released results of both FY2008 and 1Q09 together, at the same time. On the first glance, 2008 numbers look very weak. Net income is Rp633.86bn vs our forecast of Rp1.2tn and consensus at Rp2tn +

We forecasted forex loss of Rp2.57tn. Bt the company’s forex loss was immense. It reported Rp2.50tn of translation loss and another Rp547bn loss on derivative transaction they entered to hedge the yen loan. This loss I had not forecasted. Besides we also used higher average exchange rate for Usd to rupiah which also resulted in lower actual net income.

Jasa Marga (JSMR IJ) posted a solid 1Q09 result by Hadi
1Q09 Net profit Rp708bn grew 4.0%YoY on the back of steady traffic volumes.
1Q09 traffic volume increased 2.9%YoY slightly better than our full year estimate of 2.7%; note that the company’s current operations are mostly matured tollroads. 1Q09 Revenue Rp832.9bn grew by 4.2%YoY or 23% of our estimate. We expect revenue seasonality with stronger 4Q performance due to September 2009 tariff adjustment.

Jasa Marga’s cash balance maintained at Rp4tn with 37.5% net gearing; should be enough to complete the expansion plan.

Our target price of Rp1,100 was based on DCF valuation assuming 15% WACC and 18% tariff adjustment. We think 14% WACC is more appropriate with current 12% yield for 10Y government bonds. While 16% tariff adjustment is more conservative to reflect low inflation environment. This adjustments would increase NAV to Rp1,396/share - sensitivity matrix below. Maintain BUY.

Gudang Garam (GGRM IJ): 1Q09 at 781bn, up 115%YoY.
Good numbers as its gaining market share. Actually, all big producers are gaining mkt share as the smaller producers have started to lose their tax advantages.

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