In line with our expectation, CTRA reported 1Q09 net income of Rp53.8 bn, 46% YoY, -62% QoQ and 26.5% of our and 29% of consensus full-year forecasts.
After experiencing a significant collapse in its marketing sales on the back of the global economic crisis, we believe that CTRA’ marketing sales may have found the bottom, with March 2009 marketing sales exhibiting a slight recovery on a MoM basis (even after excluding sales from new launches).
We maintain our OUTPERFORM rating on CTRA with a target price of Rp610. CTRA is currently trading at a 58% discount to 2009E RNAV, versus the regional average of a 25% discount.
In addition, CTRA is currently trading at a wider discount to RNAV than its historical range. Our target price is based on a 45% discount to 2009E RNAV of Rp1108/share.
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