The national survey agency, LSN (Lembaga Survey Nasional), sampled 1,230 residents between 15 and 21 May 2009 in 33 provinces. With a 95% confidence level and 2.8% error allowance, presidential candidate SBY may get 67.1% votes, followed by Megawati with 11.8%, and by Jusuf Kalla with 6.7%. LSN suggests that the 8 July 2009 presidential election may be completed in just one round.
The presidential election will complete in just one round if:
(1) The winning candidate gets >50% votes in aggregate, AND
(2) The winning candidate gets >20% votes in >17 provinces (out of 33 total).
The increasing confidence that Indonesia’s presidential election can complete in just one round should support the positive market sentiment. Investors should be looking to buy the market on dips.
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