Our analyst Olie just came back from the 15th Coaltrans Asia conference in Bali with a more positive feeling (no wonder for someone who just spent 3 days in Bali).
Recovery in 2H09 seems to be the consensus view here with some conference delegates looking beyond 2009 and seeing strong structural story driven by, as termed by Nick Cashmore, Chindonesia.
Most delegates however, feel that the market is well supplied in the near-term, hence most are expecting a moderate recovery in pricing.
· Around 60% of Coaltrans participants view that contract price and spot price would moderately increase toward 2H09, respectively.
· But most also think that market remains well supplied in the near-term.
· Questions remain on DMO.
· Presence of the bulls with thermal coal competitiveness, massive underinvestment, and Chindonesia demand as the main thesis.
· Coal customers are looking at ways to shift away from term contracts, looking more like their European counterparts?
· For leverage to coal price recovery, stick with Indo Tambang (ITMG IJ). Bumi Resources does offer higher leverage to coal price recovery but risk is also much higher.
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