In our recent property note, we wrote that BCA (BBCA IJ) was about to launch a new mortgage product of sub 10%. Now mid-size bank Panin (PNBN IJ) has just beaten BBCA to the high ground with a new, unsubsidized, mortgage rate of 8.8%. Just 6 months ago, mortgage rates were 15%.
I think property buyers will snap this offers up. In our view, it is unlikely that Indonesians will sit and wait for lower mortgage rates. Anything single digit sounds good enough. In the historical context, mortgage rates less than 10% are already very low.
This is Ground Zero for Indonesia’s housing rally. Mortgage lending is only 3% of GDP, significantly below peers and only 1% of Indonesian households have a mortgage loan.
What happened in 2007 when banks got into the mortgage war?
A home buying frenzy, with mortgage growth accelerated from 22% to 37% YoY, current mortgage growth is about 24% YoY.
Property marketing sales jumped 82% YoY. Cement demand +11.5% nationwide, the fastest growth in over a decade.
And what happened to property stock prices back then in 2007?
Stock prices went up between 9-45% in the 3 months after the mortgage deals were announced.
Stocks that will benefit from a new mortgage war include: property companies (CTRA, SMRA, ASRI, CTRS, BSDE, and ELTY) and cement companies (INTP, SMGR, and SMCB).
Tidak ada komentar:
Posting Komentar