Credit Suisse - Asia Palm Oil sector - On rising El Niño risk and abating tree stress

Trend towards El Niño continues – the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, in its 17 June 2009 report, stated that the signs of a developing El Niño have strengthened. The odds of an El Niño are above 50%, which is more than double the normal risk of an event. However, it is still possible that recent trends may stall. The next update is on 1 July 2009.

There is supporting data from monthly FFB production data that “tree stress” for KLKepong and Astra Agro is over. However, some plantation companies, like IOI Corp and Asiatic, do not show much of an improvement. We believe that this could be attributed to: 1) the location of the plantations, and 2) the age profile.

We have UNDERPERFORM ratings on IOI, Sime Darby and KL Kepong, as valuations are rich. We maintain our OUTPERFORM ratings on Indofood Agri and London Sumatra, and NEUTRAL on Wilmar and Astra Agro.