Raise Our Forecast
We upgrade our revenue forecast 58% on the back of higher ASP (assuming ASP at US$295.000 for FY09), due to large and giant heavy equipment delivery in 2H09. From our latest company visit, we have confirmed that Hexa will deliver 48 giant units to KPC, Newmont and Thiess, in which these equipments have price range around US$2 – 7 million. These giant units would increase ASP, as compared to small excavator which sells around US$90.000 to US$95.000. Management has clarified that 5 giant units are being assembled on KPC site, and and the rest will be dispatched in 2H09. For Newmont this year, Hexa will deliver one excavator with 7 years of Full Maintenance Contract (FMC). The FMC agreement means Hexa would reap US$5 million/year/unit in spare part and service. Another unit is scheduled to dispatch to Newmont in FY10. We expect revenue in 2H09 will significantly improved by these giant units delivery and spare parts sales.
Stil Attractive Valuation
We raised our EPS forecast 120% and 8% for FY09 and FY10, respectively, to reflect substantial increase in revenue and margin. We increase our TP to Rp2750/share (from Rp1310) based on DCF valuation with 13.2% WACC, 3% terminal growth dan 20% margin of safety. This target price offers 19% upside potential and implies 5.5x PE09F, much
lower than UNTR, which is currently trading at 11x PE09F. Maintain BUY.
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