There is, however, another criterion to be met for winning in one round: the candidate must garner at least 20% of the votes in 17 provinces (out of 33), which is designed to ensure the winner is not Java-centric, since 60% of the voters reside in Java. Based on the 18 largest provinces – eligible voters wise – LSI’s survey suggests that SBY would easily meet the threshold, even after accounting for some error (“conservative” in Figure 4).
The bottom line is, SBY would win in one round, based on the survey.
Now come the less scientific view. Campaign strategy/targeting wise, Megawati is probably the most aggressive, offering the most radical programmes which appeal to the less fortunate in the population. She and her running mate, Prabowo, are the only ones offering ‘political contracts’, listed on their campaign website, among which is a vow to eliminate outsourcing for workers and legal action in the Lapindo mudflow disaster (that should make the Bakrie Group anxious). Research done by the leading newspaper, Kompas, shows that Megawati has won over strong support from fishermen and blue-collar workers in general, while JK’s core supporters reside outside Java and are higher net worth individuals (an interesting point).
JK’s popularity is gaining momentum. If such acceleration is superimposed on LSI’s survey, he might just be able to capture more than 20% of the vote, probably at the expense of SBY. This would make one round of election less likely, if Megawati manages to arrest her slide.
If SBY is pitted against JK in the second round, the latter could be the dark horse, given that the Megawati camp would likely support him. Anecdotally, many appear less certain that elections could be completed in one round.
Tidak ada komentar:
Posting Komentar