CHINA is likely to turn to alternative markets for thermal coal if the cost and availability of Australia's exports are affected by carbon taxes and environmental concerns.
A study, released today by the University of Queensland and entitled “Coal and the Commonwealth”, said China, an increasing importer of thermal coal, would probably look to Indonesia and Russia for supply, if Australia’s exports were affected by carbon taxes and environmental concerns.
“However the ability of these countries to sustain supply to China is questionable,” the report found.
“In the event of volatility in supply China could revert to exploiting reserves of inferior quality coals located in its central and southern provinces.
“It is therefore in the world’s best interests to continue to make low emission Australian coal available at competitive world prices.”
The report also outlined the emerging new technologies for coal and the rise of the coal seam gas industry.
The report, edited by Professors Peter Knights and Michael Hood, said proven, probable and possible reserves of CSG now exceed 800 million tonnes -- larger than the LN G reserves off the north and west coasts of Australia.
“With over $18 billion of projects in the planning, the CSG industry has the potential to be the next great industry for Australia,” the report said.
The concept of a “cleaner coal” is shifting in Australia towards low emission coal technologies, the report said.
The Australian reported today that according to an audit by the Rudd government's own global carbon capture and storage institute, clean coal power stations were not viable until the carbon price reached a minimum of $60 a tonne -- a level the Australian government did not anticipate until almost 2030.
The new $100 million-a-year institute found the business case for clean coal technology could only work if governments helped build the first commercial-size carbon capture and storage power plants on a "field of dreams", or "build it and they will come", basis.
Resources Minister Martin Ferguson recently said as the world's largest exporter of coal and a nation which derives around 80 per cent of its electricity from coal, it was vital that Australia made technological progress on CCS -- and soon.
Today's report, commissioned by Peabody Energy, said Australia had sufficient CCS capacity to outlast its reserves of coal.
Twelve CCS demonstration programs worth in excess of $1 billion are currently underway in Australia.
“Australia, because of its vested interest in continuing to reap the economic benefits from its plentiful coal resources and its heavy reliance on coal as an energy resource, is among the world leaders in the development of these low emissions technologies,” the report said.
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