Telkom's spectrum fee could decrease by 27%,while Indosat's could in- crease by 24%(please refer to table),according to a white paper on frequency fees issued by the Ministry of Communication and Information.
This would translate to a potential uplift of about Rp300bn to Telkom's net profit post tax and minority charges or about 2%of our FY10F.
For Indosat,this would be about a 10 percent impact on earnings.Had the government used Telkomsel's current fee costs as a benchmark,the impact on Indosat's earnings would have been much larger.
Last year,despite having similar spectrum bandwidth with Telkomsel,In-dosat paid about half of Telkomsel's spectrum costs as it had fewer TRXs.
The ministry is planning to change the current per TRX spectrum fee to a frequency-based fee.The government is seeking to implement the regula-tion by 1 January 2010 and will allow a 5 year transition period.The net impact on government revenue would be neutral.
XL's and Bakrie Telecom's frequency fees could decrease by 20%and 18% respectively.
Smaller operators such as,Axis,Hutch and Mobile-8,would see an increase in spectrum fees.We believe,this would put further pressure on smaller operators,making them less competitive,minimizing the potential for dis-ruptive pricing and potentially accelerating consolidation.
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