Bakrie Sumatera Plantations (UNSP), via its subsidiary BSP Finance B.V.has issued US$25mn bond with coupon rate of 10.75% which will mature in 2011. Note that the buyer of this bond is Bookwise Investments Limited – a new company fully owned by PT Nibung Arthamulia (90% owned by UNSP). Therefore, an additional interest expense of US$0.6-2.7mn for FY09F-10F would be netted off at consolidated level. Overall, there is no earnings impact from this transaction, but more on preparation for another huge expansion, in our view. Reiterate our ! Buy call with TP of Rp1,100/share.
New US$25mn treasury bond issue. UNSP has recently issued US$25mn bond with coupon rate of 10.75%l maturing in 2011. The terms and conditions of this new bond were similar with its current outstanding bonds of US$160mn. However, the new bond would not be listed in the market since the buyer would be Bookwise Investments Limited, the subsidiary of PT Nibung Arthamulia (90% owned by UNSP). Hence, there is no cash inflow for now. Based on our recent conversation with management, this deal is intended for future funding purpose.
No impact on earnings. Since this is an inter-company debt, an additional interest expense of US$0.6mn for FY09F and US$2.7mn for FY10F would be netted off at consolidated level. Thus, such transaction would not affect our financial projections. Our net gearing assumption of 47.5% and 39.2% for FY09-10F remains intact. At this juncture, this deal would only provide greater flexibility to future expansion or acquisition project, in our view.
Expecting 7-10% CPO production growth. Considering its young plantation profile, UNSP expected to reach around 7-10% CPO production growth this year. In terms of capex, UNSP has spent around Rp300bn as of 9M09, while full year target was at Rp300-350bn. Therefore, we positively view company’s CPO production growth going forward. As of FY09F, we foresee some 6.3% yoy growth in CPO production.
Maintain our forecast, target price, and recommendation. We maintain our earnings forecast intact at this point. Currently, the stock is trading at PER09-10F of 10.5x and 8.7x and EV/ha of US$5,904. On average, plantation companies under our coverage are trading at PER09F-10F of 16.8x and 12.8x. We retain our Buy call and target price of Rp1,100/share as we believe that valuations are still cheap. Our target price was derived from DCF valuation ! (WACC: 12 1% and TG: 5.0%).
Tidak ada komentar:
Posting Komentar