SteelGuru Chinese domestic coal price rises on squeezed stock Friday, 23 Oct 2009

Latest source indicates that coal price has maintained the uptrend on declining stock volume at Qin Huangdao, one of China largest coal ports. The uptrend is contributed by both low level of stock volume and rising demand. They pointed out that as the winter season is coming, China’s coal price will probably be well sustained for plants will store up coal for heat-generating.

The fact coal price had already posted on the upside early in Middle Sep, when stock volume at Qin Haungdao had also dropped. The uptrend has thereby been sustained. On October 21st high grade mixed coal from Datong remained at CNY 650 per tonne to CNY 660 per tonne. High grade mixed coal from Shanxi remained at CNY 620 per tonne to CNY 630 per tonne. Mixed coal from Shanxi stayed at CNY 540 per tonne to CNY 550 per tonne. Common mixed coal stayed at CNY 460 per tonne to CNY 475 per tonne and that of 4,000 calorie per kilogram stayed at CNY 405 per tonne to CNY 420 per tonne.

As the price edges up, coal stock is declining at the port. By October 19th the volume had stayed at 4.08 million tonnes of which 3.88 million tonnes were of domestic trade and 209,500 tonnes. The volume has been notably lower than the normal level of 5 million tonnes.

Rising demand remains to be the reason why coal price has edged up. Since the holiday stock volume in locally serving power plants has kept rising, by 5.1% from that before the holiday. On October 15th locally serving power plants consumed 1.99 million tonnes of coal, higher than the average 1.96 million tonnes in September underscoring that that real economy is having robust demand for coal.

Statistics of China customs show that on the side of exports, China exported 2.02 million tons of coal in September. The figure is 2.9% lower than the same period of 2008, but marks the lowest monthly drop since 2009. The average monthly drop in the first eight months remained higher than 50%. Export volume of coal came down to the lowest in June which stayed at 1.14 million tonnes. Since then, however, export volume has pointed to growth month by month. By Sep, coal exports had been rising for four straight months.

Analysts said "Low stock volume and rising demand have somehow squeezed coal supply, thus pushing the price up. Q4 is high season for the coal industry. As China as well as the world’s economy improves, foreign demand for coal wills hopeful goes up further, which is expected to prop up both domestic and global coal price in Q4.”