Mandiri Sekuritas 3Q09 GDP: Indonesia economy may have grown faster by 4.1% yoy

􀂄 Today, the Statistics Agency is scheduled to announce Indonesia’s 3Q09 GDP. We expect the economy to have grown faster by 4.11% yoy (4.17% yoy consensus estimate) compared with the previous quarter growth of economic growth of 3.99% yoy.

􀂄 We expect private consumption may have grown faster, as low inflation and increase in consumer bank financing may have supported private consumption growth. Similarly, investment activities may have rebound following rosier Indonesia’s economic growth prospect. Meanwhile, contribution in external demand, we think, likely to be less as pickup in domestic demand may drive demand for imported goods higher.

􀂄 On the production side, we expect, non-tradable sectors (i.e. communication, utilities, and construction) may have continued to drive the economy. However, we expect to see slight improvement in manufacturing sector, as pickup in machinery and transports imports seen in 3Q09.

􀂄 We remain positive on the Indonesia’s economic growth outlook in 2009 and 2010. As government commits to boost infrastructure development, remain solid private consumption, coupled with recovery in global demand, we expect the economic growth to accelerate to 5.2% yoy in 2010 from expected 4.3% yoy in 2009.