Bakrieland's net profit for 2009 is estimated to decline to Rp125bn, down 54% from net FY08 of Rp272bn (note that a Rp56bn forex gain was booked in FY08). Also, separately, it is rumored that the conversion price of Bakrieland's recent convertible bond issuance is at Rp350 per share (25% conversion premium). The price will be announced tomorrow (23 Mar) according to management.
Analyst comment: While we have expected a softer 2009 numbers (we have estimated Rp132bn for FY09 net profit, hence just slightly higher than the reported estimation), consensus's estimate is a lot higher at Rp157bn. Thus, this might put pressure on the share price in the medium term.
Also for, 9M09, Bakrieland has booked a Rp39bn forex loss. For FY10, we expect a recovery with profit increase 16% YoY. Management expects an additional revenue of Rp150-200bn from the new toll-road Kanci-Pejagan which was operational since Jan2010.
At current share price (Rp255/sh), Bakrieland is trading at 55% discount to its NAV, and below book at 0.9x P/B. Bakrieland just completed the issuance of convertible bond of US$155m, with 8.625% coupon, 5 years tenor. Debt to Equity ratio rose to 90% from 50% previously.
The proceeds will be used mostly for project acceleration capital expenditure. On project delivery, the Epicentrum Walk of mall will open in next few weeks and Bakrie Tower by end of May this year. We maintain a BUY on the stock, with Rp410 target price.
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