Delta has underperformed UT by 25% in the last month. Valuation gap in every metrics has widened to 30-35% but yet Delta has set to grow at a much faster pace than UT. The compelling macro backdrop of tight coal demand/supply situation we have in Asia has not changed. However, sentiment in Buma has been driven down by a relatively weak Jan production numbers and rumors of a rights issue. Management reiterated to us that production has picked up in Feb, they are on track to achieve production target of 38m OB tonnes of coal. There are also no plans of doing any rights issue. This is a good opportunity to accumulate Indonesia's second largest coal mining contractor.
Key points from the report:
* Coal production and overburden removal in Jan10 was rather weak, down by 4% YoY and 7% MoM. Management stated rather weak numbers were expected and production in Jan and Feb came within the company’s budget.
* Reasons for weaker numbers during the first couple of months of this year has been addressed and production has picked up since mid Feb.
* The company might spend additional capex and need additional financing, but this is likely to be vender financed and net impact to bottom line should be less than 2%.
* There is no change to management’s production targets. This is achievable because 1) Historically, productions in 2Q and 3Q are around 20% to 25% higher than that in 1Q. 2) New equipment is being delivered over the next four months, around 100 units, with 20 units already arrived year to date.
* More contracts with new customers to come. The company has delivered on getting new contract. BUMA signed a contract extension with Lanna in end of last year and is in process to sign another one in the next months or so, confirming the company's medium-term growth outlook
* Trading at PER 2010 of 9.7x and EV/Ebitda 2011 of 6.1x, risk/reward is a lot more attractive than UT.
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