Economic Ministers yesterday and today will continue to discuss the gas supply shortage. PGAS is also discussing with the government on how to maintain the delivery from South Sumatera Gas Fields in the level that they received in January of this year, which was more than 370 MMscfd average for the month. PGAS reported that gas flow from Conoco Philips now averaging 250-260 MMSCFD. PGAS is demanding Conoco Phillips (CoPhi) to supply gas to its agreed amount of 396-412 MMSCFD.
Bisnis Indonesia reported supply from CoPhi is diverted to Chevron for oil lifting. Chevron initially plan to have a supply of 322 MMSCFD in 2010 (2009 Chevron got 402 MMSCFD from CoPhi). Because of this supply to Muara Karang power plant was reduced by 50 MMSCFD. Another story was CoPhi diverting its gas to Singapore, due to lack of gas flow frow CoPhi fields in South Jambi. Total flow diverted to Singapore was 40MMSCFD. However, it was denied by Director General for Oil and Gas, Evita Legowo, According to Evita, the decline was due to under delivery from Pagardewa (Pertamina field) (- 70MMSCFD).
We conclude that the decline could be somewhat in the range of 70-90 MMSCFD or 10% of our distributed 2010 PGAS volume of 890MMSCFD. However on the positive note : (1) this could help PGAS raise prices as Singapore paid US$12.5/MMBTU for South Jambi, (2) pressure to government for approve Suban III for domestic. PGAS has not changed its volume forecast for 2010 (between 800-900MMSCD) but acknowledge there could be an increase in average cost of gas, the amount of which has not been determined.
We currently have a Buy recommendation with Rp4,350 target price. At Rp4050, PGAS 17.0x and 17.7x PER10F and PER11F, respectively. We are maintaining our current forecast of FY10E and FY11E net income of Rp5,393bn and Rp5,198bn, respectively, Our forecast are 13.4% and 29.1% below Bloomberg consensus for FY10E and FY11E of Rp6,226bn and Rp7,327bn, respectively.
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