Analyst Johannes Salim believes UNVR would benefit from:1) strong consumer consumption; and 2) margin expansion – supported by lagging inventory cost and stronger rupiah.
Meanwhile, the ongoing price war initiated by P&G seems to have had minimal impact to UNVR’s market positioning – suggesting UNVR’s strong brand equity with the consumers.
Johannes raises UNVR 2010-12 EPS forecast by 11-15% to Rp495/572/649 respectively, and upgrades UNVR fair value estimate to Rp14,600. UNVR’s rating, however, is maintained at Neutral given its rich implied valuation at 29.5x and 25.5x 2010 and 2011 PE and a mere 7.4% upside to the current price.
Sales comment: On absolute basis, UNVR stock price will continue to be defensive, in our view. On a relative basis, however, there is a good chance that UNVR will underperform. UNVR has underperformed the JCI index by 5% over the past 12 months.
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