Automotive Sector: Auto tax increase in Jakarta
Jakarta government is raising vehicle tax (to 10% from 5%) and vehicle registration tax (to 20% from 10%) beginning June 1, 2010.
Sales comment: The revised tax rates will effectively cause 15% increase in vehicle prices in the Jakarta area. Jakarta’s 4W and 2W sales account for 25-30% and 20-25% of the industry’s sales volume. This will have negative consequences on Astra International (ASII Under Review) – our quick take is for a 15% downgrade in the auto sales volume assumptions.
Indocement Tunggal (INTP Under Review): 2009 dividend and 2010 expansion
INTP is increasing 2010 capex allocation to US$100 mn, from US$70 mn previously. The aforesaid capex will be partly used to build a cement mills in Cirebon, West Java, with annual capacity of 1.5 tons – targeted to be in full operations by May 2010. INTP also plans to build two more cement mills in Citeureup, West Java with capacity of 2.0 tpa – targeted to be in operations by 2012. Meanwhile, INTP is distributing 30% of its 2009 profits in cash dividend, amounting to Rp225 per share (dividend yield = 1.5%).
Sales comment: Sounds like an aggressive expansion plan to us. INTP’s production capacity will be at 18.6 tpa in 2010, before reaching 20.6 tpa by 2012 – vs. 17.1 tpa currently. But this comes at the expense of lower-than-expected 2009 DPR – we were expecting 50% previously. INTP is trading at 16.5x 2010 and 13.3x 2011 PE, with projected 3-yr EPS CAGR of 23.8%. We would be buying INTP on weakness.
Bank BNI (BBNI Not Rated): AGM today on 2009 dividend and 2010 management line-up
Sales comment: Consensus 2009 dividend projection of Rp236 per share (yield = 9.8%). We believe BBNI CEO Gatot will stay.
Bank Mandiri (BMRI Buy PT 6,150): CEO to stay
Secretary of MSOE Said Didu stated in local papers that Agus Martowardoyo will stay as the nation's largest bank CEO. AGM on May 17, 2010.
Sales comment: SOE banks musical chair will be completed post Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI Buy PT 10,400) AGM on May 2o, 2010.
Indo Tambangraya Megah (ITMG Buy PT 42,800): Q110 result + 2009 dividend
ITMG Q110 net profit stood at US$67 mn (-34% YoY, -4% QoQ), accounting for 20% of UBSe 2010 target of US$344 mn. ITMG 2009 DPR is 46%, amounting to US¢13.8 per share (yield = 3.5%).
Sales comment: ITMG trades at 13.1x 2010 and 9.2x 2011 PE, with 3-yr projected EPS CAGR of 9.2%.
Bakrie Telecom (BTEL Sell PT 110): New companies in Bakrie Group
BTEL has set up Bakrie Network (BNET) with Rp2 bn of equity. BNET will engage in the telecommunication infrastructure business, and is planning to install fiber optic cables along the toll roads owned by the Bakrie Group. BTEL also plans to invest US$100 mn in its subsidiary Bakrie Connectivity (BCON), an Internet and multimedia company.
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