Mansek Jul10 CPI inflation preview

We estimate this month inflation would come higher than historical average of 0.7%mom in Jul since 2004.We expect Jul10 inflation to reach 1.02%mom or increase 5.65%yoy.By the time this note written,there is no consensus number available in Bloomberg.However,last week,as reported by the media,head of statistical agency still expects July ’s inflation to come below 1%.Besides the seasonal higher education price during the beginning of school season in Jul to Aug,the passed-through impact of electricity tariff hike in Jul10 and higher food prices as a result of climate anomaly would have driven the inflation higher.