Jumat, 06 Agustus 2010

BNPP Telkom Indonesia - Strong 2Q10 sustainable into 2H10. (FOONG Choong Chen) TLKM IJ; CP: IDR8,100, TP: IDR9,100; BUY

· Mgmt said that mkt competition is now more stable compared to a couple of months ago. Due to new billing system (see below), it can also instantly respond to competitors' new offerings in the future.

· Telkomsel recently launched a new plan called simPATI freedom, which leverages on a new billing system (available nationwide) that allows subscribers to easily pick the best package for themselves. Mgmt said that implementation is still just at the beginning stages & more features will be added (full implementation by 1Q11).

· The high 8% q-q growth in O&M expenses at Telkomsel was largely due to higher 2G frequency fees as there was heavy BTS built-out in 2Q (in preparation for the Lebaran festival in 3Q). Mgmt guides for total 4k-5k new BTS for 2010. With 3,013 BTS already rolled-out in 1H10, the q-q increase in O&M expenses into 3Q/4Q10 should slow down.

· Mobile internet revenue form 6% of Telkomsel's revenue in 2Q10; 80% of which comes from smartphones, & 20% from dongles. Mgmt expects this to continue growing quickly.

· Mgmt said that they will stick to their guidance for single-digit revenue growth at Telkomsel for now. But might look to review guidance upwards in 3Q10. Mgmt expects 3Q & 4Q10 to be strong quarters & agreed that 2H10 net adds should be higher compared to 1H10.

· 2010 capex guidance revised downwards to slightly lower vs 2009 (previous: same). Mgmt said improved e-procurement initiatives & better deals from chinese vendors are bringing unit prices lower.

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