Citigroup Asia ex-Japan Strategy - Torn in the USA

 Confusion and lack of conviction reign — The most common question during our recent meetings with US investors was "What are all the others doing and thinking?”. The second year of a recovery is always similar. Fears of a return to recession linger, which is why PE multiples contract. It has been no different thus far.

 Main driver in Year 2 is earnings — Out of the lows, the market rewards value. Multiples expand and now the market looks for confirmation of the recovery. This happens through earnings, with upward EPS revisions and rising margin forecasts what the market rewards. Again it is no different this time. Unlike the recovery year and final year, market returns are much more subdued in Year 2.

 The consumer space and ASEAN are well held — The consumer space is now on 2.7x book and also appears rich at 3 st. dev. vs. the market on an EV to sales basis. Better value and less crowded consumer proxies are banks and real estate. In ASEAN, Indonesia is a hot favorite for both equity and fixed income investors.