Following disappointing 2Q results (previous Daily attached) Teddy downgraded 2011F EPS, and today Teddy cuts AALI EPS again to Rp1,127-999 for 2010F-2011F. At Rp19,200- AALI is trading on 17.0x-19.2x 2010F-11F PER and implying 12% downside to Target Price Rp17,000 (based on 15x 2010F PER and 17x 2011F PER). We recommend TAKE PROFIT AALI!
· Teddy Oetomo (Daily attached): In line with the changes in our CPO price assumptions, we increase our FY10E earnings estimates for AALI by 11.7% and reduce our FY11E earnings estimates by 12.3%. The weaker CPO price outlook in 2011E may potentially soften sentiment for AALI’s share price ahead. AALI’s recent weak 2Q10 performance, attributed to weaker-than-expected production and higher-than-expected costs, may have hampered market’s sentiment on the stock. We tweak down our target price for AALI from Rp17,400 to Rp16,988, based on 17x 2011E P/E, implying 15x 2010E P/E. We believe that AALI’s valuations, at the peak of its historical P/E range and at a premium to its local peers, are currently demanding. We maintain our UNDERPERFORM rating on AALI.
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