At Rp17,300- PTBA is trading on 18.8x-12.2x 2010F-11F PER, 4.0% 2011F Dividend Yield, and implying 6% upside to Target Price Rp18,400 (13x 2011F PER). We maintain Hold PTBA over 6 months horizon, while PTBA is Buy for Long-Term due to its long-term capacity expansion projects!
· Fonny Surya (previous Daily attached): PTBA signed a Heads of Agreement (HOA) with India’s Adani group to build a 270-km railway project with a capacity of 35 mtpa. In exchange, PTBA agreed to an offtake of 60% of total volumes transported through this project at the prevailing benchmark price. This project will be an addition to the other joint railway project with Rajawali. Assuming that the dual-track program and the Rajawali project are progressing on time, altogether, we forecast PTBA achieve a 54% volumes CAGR between 2013-2015.
· We believe this is a positive for PTBA, and brings it one step closer to unlocking its massive reserves of 1.9 bn tonnes. However, given the uncertainties and challenges, coupled with short-term volumes growth risks from the existing railway, we believe that the benefit is still long term. At 18x 2010E P/E and 12x 2011E P/E, we believe that PTBA’s share is not cheap, and long-term growth has been priced in to some extent. We reiterate our NEUTRAL rating and maintain our target price of Rp18,400.
Tidak ada komentar:
Posting Komentar