• Car volumes up 72% y/y in July, 2W volumes accelerate: Indonesian vehicle sales surged to 72, 130 units in July, up 72% y/y and 2.5% m/m. More impressively, 2 wheeler volumes jumped 9% m/m to just under 700,000 units, up 44% y/y. While 4 wheeler sales volumes were flagged in the local press (Bisnis Indonesia), we see the 2 wheeler performance giving impetus to Astra’s stock performance in the short term.
• August outlook: Demand healthy – supply a potential factor: Our feedback from the recent Auto show and dealer visits in Jakarta suggests that demand in August remains strong. However, some question marks over the ability of factory output to match demand remain, given typically lower overtime hours engaged during the fasting month. If that is the case, we expect the spillover to keep September volumes healthy.
• Outperformance potential from earnings revisions and relative rerating: Our FY10 EPS forecasts for Astra remain 8% higher than consensus, and we remain optimistic that strong vehicle sales will drive Street earnings revisions. We also note that Astra has underperformed the JCI by over 5% in the last month, bringing valuations to a 4% premium on a 12M forward P/E. We believe that the stock deserves a wider premium on account of growth potential, RoE and Governance relative to the broader market and — see outperformance potential from both relative re-rating and earnings expansion.
• Reiterate OW, Rp55,000 PT: We reiterate our June 2011 P/E-based price target of Rp55,000 (which is broadly in line with SoP valuation). The key risks for Astra are: a) that it is a consensus overweight and possibly crowded trade; and b) we see the possibility for vehicle sales to ease up in 4Q, as most dealers are likely to be ahead of targets for the year; this could impede stock outperformance; c) Earlier-than-expected tightening in liquidity could constrict the 4 wheeler cycle.
Tidak ada komentar:
Posting Komentar