Indonesia’s GDP grew by 6.20% yoy in 2Q10, or 2.80% from the previous quarter, beating ours and consensus’ estimate of 6.0%. In 1H10, the economy advanced by 5.93% yoy.
Private consumption remained the backbone of the economic growth in 2Q10, as it grew by 5.0% yoy (vs. 3.9% yoy in 1Q10), followed by exports 14.6% yoy (vs. 20.0% in 1Q10) and investment by 8.0% yoy (vs. 7.8% in 1Q10). Government consumption, as we expected, contracted (-9.0% yoy) in 2Q10, given the slow budget disbursement and higher base spending in 2009.
On the sector basis, untradeable sector such as trade, communication, financial and services drove the growth in 2Q10. Improvement also was seen in the tradable sector as it partly caters to global demand recovery. The stronger jump seen in manufacturing, oil and gas, and agriculture sectors.
Given the expected stronger loan growth, limited interest rate hike by the end of the year, faster investment spending and late fiscal boost, we think, the economy sets to expand further in the 2H10. External demand seems to remain supportive to the economy although its contribution is expected to diminish gradually on stronger import demand. Accordingly, we revised our GDP growth forecast to 6.0% from 5.8% yoy in 2010, while keeping the 2011 growth at 6.3% yoy.
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