Bank Indonesia held its policy BI rate at 6.5%. However, with increasing concerns ‘of future inflationary pressure’ and in response to ‘considerable excess liquidity in the banking system’, Bank Indonesia hiked reserve requirements. We believe the measure is more conservative than originally anticipated.
Bank Indonesia’s twin objectives are preventing excess liquidity from fueling inflation and ensuring that liquidity is channeled through the banking sector into the real economy. The policy dilemma arises from higher interest rates curbing demand but at the same time exacerbating capital inflows. This explains its reluctance to hike interest rates.
The two key changes are the primary reserve two, which adds 3% to the primary reserve. This 3% will earn interest at Bank Indonesia of 2.5%. The second key change is the LDR related reserve. The additional 3% primary reserve must be posted at Bank Indonesia by November 1, 2010 and the LDR linked required reserve must be posted at Bank Indonesia by March 1, 2011.
As the above table indicates the greatest impact will be to BCA (BBCA IJ) and Bank Mandiri (BMRI IJ).
The least impact will be on BRI (BBRI IJ) and BNI (BBNI IJ). Meantime, BTN (BBTN IJ) and Danamon (BDMN IJ), despite their high LDRs, are going to be affected less as their CAR is higher than 14%.
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