● TIPs: best performers YTD and more importantly above their 2007 highs. Highlights that with close to 30% gains YTD, TIPs markets (Thailand, Indonesia and the Philippines) are now above their 2007 highs. Figure 2 highlights that they are the only Asian indices above their 2007 highs. The question then for investors is whether it is time to take profit in TIPs markets. We believe yes, but only in the more overvalued sectors.
● We recommend that investors take profit in the most overvalued sectors. In Indonesia, the three most overvalued sectors trading at premiums of around 40% on our P/BV versus ROE model are industrials, consumer cyclicals and consumer staples. In the Philippines, the most overvalued sector is real estate. In Thailand, the most overvalued sector is consumer cyclicals but its premium at 21% is not as high as those seen in Indonesia or the Philippines.
● However, we are still OVERWEIGHT TIPs markets, as still there are sectors that are undervalued.
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