· Inflationary pressures in August alleviated as the consumer price index only increased by 0.76% MoM and 6.44% YoY. This was under the consensus expectation of 1.00% MoM and 6.69% YoY , which may rising expectation that prices have reached their peaks and stabilized.
· Exports were flat in July 2010, only growing by 1.3% MoM to US$12.49bn, while imports grew by 7.3% MoM to US$12.61bn. This means for the first time this year, Indonesia recorded a trade deficit of US$128.7mn.
· With this figure, we expect Bank Indonesia to maintain its benchmark rate at 6.5% this month as YTD inflation is still at 4.82%. However there is still some upward risk to inflation this month, as we approach the Lebaran holidays. Core inflation was also higher last month at 0.52% MoM and potentially to be higher again this month.
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