• PGN booked Rp1.77tn net profit in 1Q10 or up by 45.2% YoY from Rp1.22tn in 1Q09. The company’s bottom line showed stronger growth compared to its revenue figure which grew only by 0.2% YoY to Rp4.48tn vs Rp4.47tn in 1Q09 due to lower distribution gas volume in 1Q10. The company’s revenue figure was slightly below our number as it only accounted for 21.8% of our full year estimate while its bottom line is in-line with our estimate.
• On operational side, the company’s distribution volume is up by 16.6% YoY to reach 841 mmscfd vs 721 mmscfd in 1Q10, relatively in-line with our new assumption of 845 mmscfd. While the company’s transmission volume was slightly down by 2.7% YoY to only 758 mmscfd from 779 mmscfd in 1Q10.
• The company’s margins in 1Q10 were improved as it was able to maintain operating expense at the same level as last year and benefited from a forex gain of Rp199bn compared to Rp134bn in 1Q10. The company’s operating and net margin was up by 2.4% and 12.2% to 47.0% and 54.8%, respectively.
• Overall, PGN’s 1Q10 result was relatively in-line with our estimate as we had lowered our distribution volume assumption due to supply disruption from Conoco Phillips. We maintain our Buy recommendation on the counter while PGAS is currently trading at 2010F PER of 12.7x and EV/EBITDA of 7.6x.
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