Astra Agro Lestari’s 1QFY10 CPO sales in line with expectations
In its latest Investor Bulletin, Astra Agro Lestari announced 1QFY10 CPO sales reached 223,308 MT (-1.2% y-o-y). This represented c.20.9% of our full year target and is within expectations (1Q volumes have historically represented 20-22% of full year number). PK sales, however, dropped by 16% q-o-q to 29,740 MT – slightly below forecast. We expect PK sales to pick up in subsequent quarters, owing to Palm Kernel Oil price’s recovery y-o-y. The group’s average CPO ASP for the quarter was Rp6,544/kg (+19.1% y-o-y); while PK price jumped 46% y-o-y to Rp3,083. Exports accounted for 11.1% of sales.
We are currently reviewing our forecasts to account to Rupiah’s strength and potentially lower smallholders’ production volumes this year, although any revisions are unlikely to be significant. We are maintaining our Fully Valued call with TP of Rp20,425. We believe Astra Agro’s limited plantable reserves would limit its expansion and volume growth going forward, despite efforts to intensify yields.
Tampilkan postingan dengan label 425; AALI IJ. Tampilkan semua postingan
Tampilkan postingan dengan label 425; AALI IJ. Tampilkan semua postingan
Rabu, 21 April 2010
Rabu, 24 Maret 2010
DBS Astra Agro Lestari: Fully Valued; Rp24,400; TP Rp20,425; AALI IJ
Feb10 CPO sales volume dropped by 27.4% m-o-m
Astra Agro Lestari (AALI) reported a 27.4% m-o-m decline in Feb10 CPO sales volume to 66,060 MT, from 90,954 MT in Jan10. Decline came from lower production, which fell by 20.3% m-o-m to 62,611 MT – on low production season, aggravated by a drop in smallholder yields. Local and export sales volumes accounted for 88.6% and 11.4%, respectively after falling by 25.7% and 38.4% m-o-m, respectively. Average selling prices nevertheless rose by 1.8% m-o-m to Rp6,523/kg, in line with international price movements.
For 2M10, AALI’s CPO sales volume rose by 2.7% y-o-y to 157,014 MT, representing 15% of our full-year forecast of 1,056,235 MT. We expect FY10F CPO production growth to decelerate to 2.5% from 10.3% last year, mainly due to lower plasma contribution and aging tree profile. Our Fully Valued call and Rp20,425 TP are maintained.
Astra Agro Lestari (AALI) reported a 27.4% m-o-m decline in Feb10 CPO sales volume to 66,060 MT, from 90,954 MT in Jan10. Decline came from lower production, which fell by 20.3% m-o-m to 62,611 MT – on low production season, aggravated by a drop in smallholder yields. Local and export sales volumes accounted for 88.6% and 11.4%, respectively after falling by 25.7% and 38.4% m-o-m, respectively. Average selling prices nevertheless rose by 1.8% m-o-m to Rp6,523/kg, in line with international price movements.
For 2M10, AALI’s CPO sales volume rose by 2.7% y-o-y to 157,014 MT, representing 15% of our full-year forecast of 1,056,235 MT. We expect FY10F CPO production growth to decelerate to 2.5% from 10.3% last year, mainly due to lower plasma contribution and aging tree profile. Our Fully Valued call and Rp20,425 TP are maintained.
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