· BNI management has asked for its right issue plan to be prioritized to go first before Mandiri carries out the same action. The bank’s CEO, Mr. Gatot Suwondo, stated that BNI has more of an urgent need to raise more capital to support expansion to support next year’s loan growth of 15-20%.
· In response to this, Mandiri (BMRI, Rp6,650) CEO stated that he leaves the decision in the hands of the House of Representatives.
· BBNI is trading at 2011F consensus PER of 12.5x and PBV of 2.2x.
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Selasa, 28 September 2010
Mansek UNTR:Slower growth (UNTR,Rp20,200,Buy,TP:Rp21,700)
Komatsu sales volume in Aug ’10 increased by 49.0%YoY from Aug ’10.This slower growth dragged down YoY growth from 87.1%in 7M10 to 81.4%in 8M10.8M10 komatsu sales volume of 3,653 units represented 73.4%of our FY10F of 4,978 units.This is still within our expectation due to we expect slower YoY growth up to end of year.
Overburden removal and coal production in Aug ’10 also recorded slower growth.8M10 Overburden removal represented 79.8%of our FY10F estimate,meanwhile 8M10 coal production represented 71.3%of our FY10F estimate. These are still within our expectation as we expect slower YoY growth in overburden removal and coal production up to end of year due to mining activities usually slower in 4Q.
Currently,UNTR is trading at PER10F and PER11F of 15.5x and 14.6x,respectively.
Overburden removal and coal production in Aug ’10 also recorded slower growth.8M10 Overburden removal represented 79.8%of our FY10F estimate,meanwhile 8M10 coal production represented 71.3%of our FY10F estimate. These are still within our expectation as we expect slower YoY growth in overburden removal and coal production up to end of year due to mining activities usually slower in 4Q.
Currently,UNTR is trading at PER10F and PER11F of 15.5x and 14.6x,respectively.
Rabu, 25 Agustus 2010
Mansek UNTR:7M10 heavy equipment unit sales up 87%yoy (UNTR,Rp18,700,Buy,TP:Rp21,700)
As of 7M10 heavy equipment unit sales reached 3200(+87%yoy)representing some 64%of our and UNTR ’s Fy10F of 5k units.On mom basis it actually fell a bit by 8%to 468 units .Mining sector continues to be the biggest demand driver with some 59%of total units sold as of 7M10.We continue to maintain our FY10F of 5k considering some seasonality in the months of Sept and Dec.We currently have a buy on the stock PER11F of 13.6x with tp of Rp21,700.
Sabtu, 31 Juli 2010
Mandiri Sekuritas United Tractor: 1H10 results are below ours and consensus estimate (UNTR, Rp20,050, Buy, TP: Rp21,700)
UNTR posted 1H10 net income of Rp1.9tn (+0.8%yoy, +8.0%qoq), which is below ours and consensus estimate.
Revenue growth mainly came from construction machinery sales (+56%yoy). However, gross margin contracted yoy at machinery division (27% to be 21%), and mining contracting division (22% to be 16%). The decline was due to operational drawback in Pama as a result of heavy rainfall, particulary in Adaro and Jembayan. Second reason was due to rupiah strengthening.
We have Buy recommendation on UNTR which currently trades at PER10-11F of 15.3-14.5x
Revenue growth mainly came from construction machinery sales (+56%yoy). However, gross margin contracted yoy at machinery division (27% to be 21%), and mining contracting division (22% to be 16%). The decline was due to operational drawback in Pama as a result of heavy rainfall, particulary in Adaro and Jembayan. Second reason was due to rupiah strengthening.
We have Buy recommendation on UNTR which currently trades at PER10-11F of 15.3-14.5x
Selasa, 04 Mei 2010
NISP Sampoerna Agri analyst gathering (SGRO, Rp2,700)
• Yesterday we attended analyst gathering for Sampoerna Agri. The company managed to increase first quarter net sales by 93.7% YoY to Rp302.2bn from Rp156.0bn the previous year. Net income also rose significantly by 219% YoY from Rp13.4bn to Rp42.8bn.
• Lower yield in 2009 was mainly due to some areas that just came into maturity having low yield, compounded with heavy rainfall in Sumatra in early 2009 that resulted in flooding.
• The company explained that revenue from seeds is back at 4% level from previously 2%. Although production was mostly down on a QoQ basis from 4Q09 due to the wet season, management anticipates that 2Q10 should be better harvest than 1Q10.
• Sampoerna Agri also shared that it plans to enter the sago business. Several reasons impacting that decision is that sago is the highest starch yielding crop, high tolerance to pest and disease, and perpetual economic life.
• SGRO is trading at 2010F consensus PER of 12.7x and EV/EBITDA of 7.6x.
• Lower yield in 2009 was mainly due to some areas that just came into maturity having low yield, compounded with heavy rainfall in Sumatra in early 2009 that resulted in flooding.
• The company explained that revenue from seeds is back at 4% level from previously 2%. Although production was mostly down on a QoQ basis from 4Q09 due to the wet season, management anticipates that 2Q10 should be better harvest than 1Q10.
• Sampoerna Agri also shared that it plans to enter the sago business. Several reasons impacting that decision is that sago is the highest starch yielding crop, high tolerance to pest and disease, and perpetual economic life.
• SGRO is trading at 2010F consensus PER of 12.7x and EV/EBITDA of 7.6x.
Minggu, 02 Mei 2010
Mandiri Sekuritas INDF: 1Q10 net income at Rp632bn, above ours and consensus estimates (INDF, Rp3,825, Neutral, TP: Rp3,700)
INDF posted 1Q10 net income of Rp632bn (+472.3%yoy, +26.4%qoq), above ours and consensus estimates.
Sales growth of 4.8%yoy and 4.2% qoq was magnified by margin improvement and forex loss reversal.
We still have Neutral recommendation on INDF which currently is trading at PER10-11F of 18.5-16.8x.
Sales growth of 4.8%yoy and 4.2% qoq was magnified by margin improvement and forex loss reversal.
We still have Neutral recommendation on INDF which currently is trading at PER10-11F of 18.5-16.8x.
Kamis, 01 April 2010
Mandiri Sekuritas Bank Rakyat Indonesia: FY09 results above our expectation and consensus estimates (BBRI, Rp8,250 Buy, Rp8,700)
Bank Rakyat Indonesia recorded a net profit of Rp7.3tn (+22.7% yoy) in 2009, which was above our expectation and consensus estimates.
The bank reported higher than expected fee based income, mainly derived from fees and commissions charged to its customers.
Meanwhile, NIM declined to 9.1% in 2009 from 10.2% in 2008, partly attributed to strong growth in time deposits during the year (CASA proportion declined from 63.5% in 2008 to 60.6% in 2009) which led to a higher increase in interest expense compared to interest income (44.4% yoy vs. 24.9% yoy).
During the analyst meeting yesterday, the management mentioned about the targeted loan growth of 20-25% yoy this year and expected improvement in CASA proportion, supported by full online system effective Nov09. Despite that, the bank only targets NIM to maintain between 8.5% -9.5%.
At present, BRI is trading at 2010F P/BV of 3.1x and PER of 13.0x. We maintained our buy recommendation on the counter.
The bank reported higher than expected fee based income, mainly derived from fees and commissions charged to its customers.
Meanwhile, NIM declined to 9.1% in 2009 from 10.2% in 2008, partly attributed to strong growth in time deposits during the year (CASA proportion declined from 63.5% in 2008 to 60.6% in 2009) which led to a higher increase in interest expense compared to interest income (44.4% yoy vs. 24.9% yoy).
During the analyst meeting yesterday, the management mentioned about the targeted loan growth of 20-25% yoy this year and expected improvement in CASA proportion, supported by full online system effective Nov09. Despite that, the bank only targets NIM to maintain between 8.5% -9.5%.
At present, BRI is trading at 2010F P/BV of 3.1x and PER of 13.0x. We maintained our buy recommendation on the counter.
Mandiri Sekuritas Mayora Indah: FY09 earnings of Rp372bn (+89.7% yoy), above ours and consensus expectations (MYOR, Rp4,125, Buy, TP: Rp4,700)
Mayora delivered incredible earnings growth of 89.7% yoy and 0.4% qoq to Rp372bn in FY09. Top-line figure is within ours and consensus estimates, whereas bottom-line is significantly above our and consensus estimates. Revenue upped by 22.3% backed by stronger demand coupled with increased production capacity (do note that MYOR’s new factory has started in Aug09). Stronger rupiah exchange rate also helped to boost gross margin in 4Q09 (25.3% vs 3Q09 of 25.2%) which brought FY09 margin to 23.7%, slightly higher than company’s previous indication of 23%.
However, operating margin dropped in 4Q09 which mainly due to significantly higher G&A expenses. G&A expenses jumped 3-folds on quarterly basis to Rp74bn in 4Q09. We think this is largely due to salaries and bonuses which book in 4Q09.
All in all, FY10F sales is likely to grow by 20%yoy to Rp5.6tn, in our view. This is to take into account for improving purchasing power, coupled with fully implementation of company’s new plant.
Currently, Mayora is trading at PER10F of 8.4x.
However, operating margin dropped in 4Q09 which mainly due to significantly higher G&A expenses. G&A expenses jumped 3-folds on quarterly basis to Rp74bn in 4Q09. We think this is largely due to salaries and bonuses which book in 4Q09.
All in all, FY10F sales is likely to grow by 20%yoy to Rp5.6tn, in our view. This is to take into account for improving purchasing power, coupled with fully implementation of company’s new plant.
Currently, Mayora is trading at PER10F of 8.4x.
Rabu, 24 Maret 2010
Mandiri Sekuritas Indofood Sukses Makmur: FY09 earnings above our and consensus estimates (INDF, Rp4,100, Neutral, TP: Rp3,700)
Indofood registered Rp37.1tn sales (-4.3% yoy, -10.5%qoq) and Rp2.1tn earnings (+100.7%yoy, -35.6%qoq) in FY09. We view that sales figure was backed by stronger sales volume growth of its CBP products. CBP division contributed some 43% of sales in FY09, up from 31% in FY08. Noted that this earnings figure is 17-20% above our and consensus estimates largely due to minority interest factor.
As we already mention in our 9M09 report (“Passed its peak”), we think that company’s margin is already peaked in 3Q09. In 4Q09, INDF reported lower gross margin of 26.9%, from 28.6% in the previous quarter, largely due to higher wheat and CPO prices. Wheat and CPO prices have climbed by around 12% and 16% in 4Q09, respectively. For FY09, company booked some forex gain of Rp731bn.
Currently, Indofood is trading at PER10F of 19.8x. Maintain Neutral.
As we already mention in our 9M09 report (“Passed its peak”), we think that company’s margin is already peaked in 3Q09. In 4Q09, INDF reported lower gross margin of 26.9%, from 28.6% in the previous quarter, largely due to higher wheat and CPO prices. Wheat and CPO prices have climbed by around 12% and 16% in 4Q09, respectively. For FY09, company booked some forex gain of Rp731bn.
Currently, Indofood is trading at PER10F of 19.8x. Maintain Neutral.
Kamis, 25 Juni 2009
Mandiri Sekuritas Medco Energi: LNG buyer give more time to the consortium (Rp2,750, Neutral, TP: Rp3,700)
Quoting from Bisnis Indonesia, Chubu Electric Power Co and Kansai Electric Power Co (which act as a buyer for LNG) have agreed to give more time for MEDC and Pertamina consortium to further negotiate with the government, in regards to supply gas to DSLNG. The Japanese buyer did not give the exact deadline for the negotiation process.
MEDC believes that there are 3 reasons why the government should agree with the consortium in supplying its gas to DSLNG; 1) the upstream scheme will give out optimum income for the government, 2) around 17% (or 70 mmscfd) of its total production will be allocated to fertilizer plant in Indonesia, and 3) a decent gas selling price of around US$6.2/mmbtu at US$70 oil price and LNG price of around
US$10.9/mmbtu.
Apart from that, PLN’s Planning and Technology Director announced that they have not agreed the selling price of geothermal with MEDC yet. Previously there was news which stated that PT Perusahaan Listrik Negara has agreed the selling price of geothermal power plant in Sarulla of US$6 cents per kWH (30% upward adjustment from previously US$4.6 cents). As MEDC is currently still in a negotiation process with
PLN, we therefore have not factored in future income from this project in our forecast. Thus project realization will provide an upside to our current valuation.
The construction will be in 3 phases over the next 5 years, and the project will start up 2012. Assuming the plant running at its full capacity of 330MW thus, MEDC may obtain an extra income of around US$170mn per year. The company announced that they will out dividend around US$50mn or Rp157/share (assuming Rp10,500/US$). It reflects a divided yield of 5.7%. MEDC is currently trading at EV/2P of US$1.9/boe,
including its contingent reserves.
MEDC believes that there are 3 reasons why the government should agree with the consortium in supplying its gas to DSLNG; 1) the upstream scheme will give out optimum income for the government, 2) around 17% (or 70 mmscfd) of its total production will be allocated to fertilizer plant in Indonesia, and 3) a decent gas selling price of around US$6.2/mmbtu at US$70 oil price and LNG price of around
US$10.9/mmbtu.
Apart from that, PLN’s Planning and Technology Director announced that they have not agreed the selling price of geothermal with MEDC yet. Previously there was news which stated that PT Perusahaan Listrik Negara has agreed the selling price of geothermal power plant in Sarulla of US$6 cents per kWH (30% upward adjustment from previously US$4.6 cents). As MEDC is currently still in a negotiation process with
PLN, we therefore have not factored in future income from this project in our forecast. Thus project realization will provide an upside to our current valuation.
The construction will be in 3 phases over the next 5 years, and the project will start up 2012. Assuming the plant running at its full capacity of 330MW thus, MEDC may obtain an extra income of around US$170mn per year. The company announced that they will out dividend around US$50mn or Rp157/share (assuming Rp10,500/US$). It reflects a divided yield of 5.7%. MEDC is currently trading at EV/2P of US$1.9/boe,
including its contingent reserves.
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